Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[wxeyeNH]

Thunderstorm is just sitting to my west by 5 miles.  So much lightning and thunder over the past hour.  Light rain here but must be getting tons just west of Newfound Lake.  So close....will it drift east?

[StormSurge]

Ryan's boss gone??

https://www.thelaurelct.com/last-flight-out/

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

no, that faces the the wrong way.

Level 3 anvil here.

http://www.newenglandwx.com/northfield-nh/1-sky-cam-4hr-timelapse.htm

[eekuasepinniW]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Level 3 anvil here.

http://www.newenglandwx.com/northfield-nh/1-sky-cam-4hr-timelapse.htm

Yeah I'd give that one a 3.2

Two days in a row I've suspended my irrigation timers in anticipation of a deluge. These gambles have not worked out.

[Lava Rock]

12 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Yeah I'd give that one a 3.2

Two days in a row I've suspended my irrigation timers in anticipation of a deluge. These gambles have not worked out.

at least you're getting legit chances

[HoarfrostHubb]

KFIT hit 90 on Tues and Weds.  Looks like they will miss out today.  Sneaky close heat wave fail

[weatherwiz]

Has anyone installed the new version of bufkit?  I'm having problems 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well it's not like you're going to hit saturation every night either. There were a lot of HHH airmasses with Poor decoupling that July. ASOS rarely records dewpoint depressions of 0F too despite thick fog. A lot goes into it. Correlating avg lows to avg dews is just a crude way to estimate it.

Ahhh that's true.  Good point.

I'm also forgetting its BDL and not MVL/MPV/BML/HIE type where every night hits saturation with fog if it's clear skies.

I mean I can make pretty darn good guesses up here of overnight lows just by the afternoon dew points.  We radiate down to within a couple degrees of the mid-afternoon dews probably 66-75% of the time.  

This morning's low was 56F...and guess what yesterday afternoon's low dew was?  56F.  It's like clock work.

This afternoon's dews are 62-65F so it'll be a muggy one tonight and I bet we see a low around 62F at MVL in the AM with dense fog.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahhh that's true.  Good point.

I'm also forgetting its BDL and not MVL/MPV/BML/HIE type where every night hits saturation with fog if it's clear skies.

I mean I can make pretty darn good guesses up here of overnight lows just by the afternoon dew points.  We radiate down to within a couple degrees of the mid-afternoon dews probably 66-75% of the time.  

This morning's low was 56F...and guess what yesterday afternoon's low dew was?  56F.  It's like clock work.

This afternoon's dews are 62-65F so it'll be a muggy one tonight and I bet we see a low around 62F at MVL in the AM with dense fog.

I often take the 18 or 19z dew point obs and dump that into my low temp grid for the night and use that as a 25+% part of the blend.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahhh that's true.  Good point.

I'm also forgetting its BDL and not MVL/MPV/BML/HIE type where every night hits saturation with fog if it's clear skies.

I mean I can make pretty darn good guesses up here of overnight lows just by the afternoon dew points.  We radiate down to within a couple degrees of the mid-afternoon dews probably 66-75% of the time.  

This morning's low was 56F...and guess what yesterday afternoon's low dew was?  56F.  It's like clock work.

This afternoon's dews are 62-65F so it'll be a muggy one tonight and I bet we see a low around 62F at MVL in the AM with dense fog.

b-b-b-b-butt..62-65 dews aren't muggy and humid...you were in Woodstock and it felt refreshing!

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

b-b-b-b-butt..62-65 dews aren't muggy and humid...you were in Woodstock and it felt refreshing!

It definitely isn't sticky.  Tonight we'll fog out quickly and for up here you can probably call it muggy.  

CT in mid-summer is another world where I expect it to be en fuego all the time, so that is a refreshing air mass for that heat sink ;).

 

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I often take the 18 or 19z dew point obs and dump that into my low temp grid for the night and use that as a 25+% part of the blend.

If I have time I should go back and look at the daily obs but I think the afternoon low dew point trick works here probably 5 out of 7 days per week in the summer (which has less mid-level clouds and is often clear).

It takes a significant gradient flow to keep any wind at all in the boundary layer here between the high ridge lines after 9pm...every night seems to radiate to fog as long as it's clear, which it is a lot of nights in the summer.  

I think if you took afternoon dews and forecast  that without looking at anything else you'd be within 3-4 degrees of the low more times than not.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

If I have time I should go back and look at the daily obs but I think the afternoon low dew point trick works here probably 5 out of 7 days per week in the summer (which has less mid-level clouds and is often clear).

It takes a significant gradient flow to keep any wind at all in the boundary layer here between the high ridge lines after 9pm...every night seems to radiate to fog as long as it's clear, which it is a lot of nights in the summer.  

I think if you took afternoon dews and forecast  that without looking at anything else you'd be within 3-4 degrees of the low more times than not.

Our SOO just did a quick breakdown of wind speed bias in our forecast and with MOS. And we have a big high bias at wind speeds below 3 knots because we nearly always have 1 or 2 knots in the forecast when it goes calm. And it always goes calm. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Our SOO just did a quick breakdown of wind speed bias in our forecast and with MOS. And we have a big high bias at wind speeds below 3 knots because we nearly always have 1 or 2 knots in the forecast when it goes calm. And it always goes calm. 

Yeah how often do you see any of the mountain valley sites showing 2kts at like 1am without some serious wind aloft?  Some sites in larger valleys will be like south at 5kts but the HIE/BML/IZG/MVL/MPV/SLK sites are all dead calm after 9pm.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It definitely isn't sticky.  Tonight we'll fog out quickly and for up here you can probably call it muggy.  

CT in mid-summer is another world where I expect it to be en fuego all the time, so that is a refreshing air mass for that heat sink ;).

 

Ah.. so dewpoints feel different depending on the latitude. I see 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ah.. so dewpoints feel different depending on the latitude. I see 

Relative to normal, yes things vary.  Ask someone in DC what they think of a 62F dew.

You still won't convince me that a dew of 56F at ORH and 62F at BDL is a sticky four-ply day.  Maybe muggy/damp at night if it fogs out and goes 100% RH.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Relative to normal, yes things vary.  Ask someone in DC what they think of a 62F dew.

You still won't convince me that a dew of 56F at ORH and 62F at BDL is a sticky four-ply day.  Maybe muggy/damp at night if it fogs out and goes 100% RH.

The dew sensor at ORH has notoriously run low. Even the mets have mentioned that over the years. Never matches with surrounding locales 

[dendrite]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah how often do you see any of the mountain valley sites showing 2kts at like 1am without some serious wind aloft?  Some sites in larger valleys will be like south at 5kts but the HIE/BML/IZG/MVL/MPV/SLK sites are all dead calm after 9pm.

ASOS won't report less than 3kt. It gets reported as calm. The manned stations would do it. I've seen it at PSM and MWN (the rare times it's actually that low).

[ineedsnow]

18Z gfs

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The dew sensor at ORH has notoriously run low. Even the mets have mentioned that over the years. Never matches with surrounding locales 

I expect Will to come in and destroy this post.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Relative to normal, yes things vary.  Ask someone in DC what they think of a 62F dew.

You still won't convince me that a dew of 56F at ORH and 62F at BDL is a sticky four-ply day.  Maybe muggy/damp at night if it fogs out and goes 100% RH.

It's beautiful out and not sticky. Muggy morning gave way to column drying with ridging moving in

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18Z gfs

Not happening James.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I expect Will to come in and destroy this post.

I suspect he just flat out contrived that content out of the ether because he (personally) doesn't understand that it 1,000 foot high and tends to be above surface pooling

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not happening James.

Even if it happen exactly like that?   believe it or not ..that's not that big of a deal for us. 

As is that has the appeal of being heavy rain and some flooding ..okay, but that sucker is filling super fast by the time it's even nearing NYC, and the entire region is on the left side/weak wind quadrant...  That's probably routine gusts to 45 mph about as far NW as EEN ... and 75 mph on the Cape tops. 

Obviously you know all that/this ...just sayn'.  Our better cane strikes have a way of staying off the coast and coming on a more due S to N accelerating trajectory/speed.

[OceanStWx]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ASOS won't report less than 3kt. It gets reported as calm. The manned stations would do it. I've seen it at PSM and MWN (the rare times it's actually that low).

Today! MWN was reporting 1 and 2 knots.

[OceanStWx]

50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I expect Will to come in and destroy this post.

 

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect he just flat out contrived that content out of the ether because he (personally) doesn't understand that it 1,000 foot high and tends to be above surface pooling

Yeah, notoriously runs low in the same sense that they are always cooler than surrounding obs because they are at 1000 feet and we must look to the Tarmac to hype up the summer wx.

[powderfreak]

56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ASOS won't report less than 3kt. It gets reported as calm. The manned stations would do it. I've seen it at PSM and MWN (the rare times it's actually that low).

I did not know that!  So under 3.5mph is calm?  

That makes sense so there could be some light drainage flow at these spots that are getting calm recordings by the ASOS.

[eekuasepinniW]

Second night in a row that a bunch of late-to-the-party storms pop just to the west around sunset and carefully not hit me.

I can see the beautiful curtains of desperately needed rain.

Edit:  the Squam Lake cell just spit out one single CG that was especially bluish white.

[moneypitmike]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

That's usually what my garden looks like without hail.

LOL.

 

Just had a really close strike here.  Knocked out the power for about 15 seconds. 

[kdxken]

Don't know what this boob is talking about,  it's been an absolute steamy torch

" It sure has been a highly active summer around Greater Boston with rainfall and even some unusually cool air "

http://www.bostonglobe.com/2017/08/03/the-pacific-northwest-broiling-this-week/Kc9I0gMaDWBTosg6ww78LN/story.html?event=event12