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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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Gotta love the Maine coast.  COC weekend en route.

 

Beach Hazards Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA TODAY...

.WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WITH
PEOPLE OUT ENJOYING THE WATER AND WATER TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY PREPARED FOR COLD WATER.
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4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

The fog is horrible this morning.. Surprised that theres no dense fog advisory.... Hard to see a hundred feet in front of you in some spots... 

I had an interesting ride in.  There was plenty of fog in the valleys but when I went over the mountain to Somers I could see blue skies closer to 1000' but dense fog again in the CT River Valley. 

The past few days and perhaps this weekend has felt more like September than peak climo.  I noticed this morning it dropped this July to #9 on the top 10 coolest July rankings for me.  The funny thing is, I haven't heard too many people complaining...

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Drove thru heavy rain in Belgrade/Rome on the way home yesterday afternoon, only to find we'd had just 0.03" - the line passed overhead but strengthened after it went by.  Same thing happened last Thursday, only with even heavier rain and just a trace at home.  July will finish about 0.9" BN, after June's -3.1".  Water table remains in good shape, but the top 12" is pretty dry.

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12 hours ago, weathafella said:

Signs of WAR as we move into late summer?

Not really, no - 

The teleconnections are not very well correlated at this time of year, and even if they were, they are split between agencies (talking the GEF's derivatives...) with one showing cold and the other undecided. 

Why - what are you seeing...  ?   I've seen four intervals of WAR intimations this summer and all have ended up mockingly the other direction. 

Frankly, the persistence wins the charge, and it is the onus of the countermanding signals to actually win once, ...just once... before (me personally) believes anything else.  It may happen - it might.  But, this pattern lock has been happening at a deeper level than the surface complexion of the daily model runs - ...I'm seeing a long wave resonance (for lack of better word) that is permanently affixed a negative node along 80 to 70 W longitude, and no matter what the intra-time span wave signatures (in modeling) there are that roll through that ~ zone...the results is muting positives while jerking off negatives...  

That's "why" people have been using expressions like, "...least excuse imagined" - it's that underlying sort of vector to dismantle ridges while supporting troughs that's in play. It gives the emergent property in this case, more than the physical cause?   

I'm not seeing where that underlying 'foundational' tendency is changing without a Hemispheric scaled motivator.  So stalwart it seems a geological event needs to transpire! Hell, I'd take a Yellowstone eruption at this point.   As Brian and I were musing last week or whenever that was...it may indeed take seasonal change onset to lengthen waves ...but unfortunately, we don't want to change that/this underlying structure in late October...  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not really, no - 

The teleconnections are not very well correlated at this time of year, and even if they were, they are split between agencies (talking the GEF's derivatives...) with one showing cold and the other undecided. 

Why - what are you seeing...  ?   I've seen four intervals of WAR intimations this summer and all have ended up mockingly the other direction. 

Frankly, the persistence wins the charge, and it is the onus of the countermanding signals to actually win once, ...just once... before (me personally) believes anything else.  It may happen - it might.  But, this pattern lock has been happening at a deeper level than the surface complexion of the daily model runs - ...I'm seeing a long wave resonance (for lack of better word) that is permanently affixed a negative node along 80 to 70 W longitude, and no matter what the intra-time span wave signatures (in modeling) there are that roll through that ~ zone...the results is muting positives while jerking off negatives...  

That's "why" people have been using expressions like, "...least excuse imagined" - it's that underlying sort of vector to dismantle ridges while supporting troughs that's in play. It gives the emergent property in this case, more than the physical cause?   

I'm not seeing where that underlying 'foundational' tendency is changing without a Hemispheric scaled motivator.  So stalwart it seems a geological event needs to transpire! Hell, I'd take a Yellowstone eruption at this point.   As Brian and I were musing last week or whenever that was...it may indeed take seasonal change onset to lengthen waves ...but unfortunately, we don't want to change that/this underlying structure in late October...  

Check the ensembles (euro) going forward.  This signal to me has been on about the last 6-7 runs and growing stronger albeit not a lock yet.

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welp - nice to see the Euro run last night finally conceded to atmospheric scientific reasoning...  

It's shallowed out it's surface reflection accordingly with also easing off the throttle on it's theoretically challenging behavior of amplifying trough from mere MCS vorticity shrapnel or bumble bee wing flaps or whatever in the hell it was using to sculpt out a hemispheric motivating system from nothing... 

tongue in cheek, but this run was flatter and weaker and more progressive.  It should also actually verify that way, so we'll see.  

NAM recent runs have gone zilch on QPF N of the S Coast and even relaxing winds over eastern zones, too.  

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Check the ensembles (euro) going forward.  This signal to me has been on about the last 6-7 runs and growing stronger albeit not a lock yet.

 

Yeah this was what I was after in asking - I was wondering if the EPS might be attempting something...  Well, if so...to that I can only say, I have also seen the EPS try to WAR at a coupled other times since mid June and neither has succeeded either.  So that particular product suite (in my mind) is also in cahoots with the others on this particular subject matter. 

Having said that ...yeah, I/we've seen this before.  Sort of heat dimmed summers and then we get a heat wave in the first week of September as the extended finally gets to us... heh..

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EPS is interesting ... it's actually retrograding the middle latitude features ... I see where Jerry's coming from - but what I'm seeing only goes out to D10

 

It's actually repositioning the western seemingly permanent ridge closer to the actual west coast/California region.  But, ...beyond softening blacktops, and filling ER, off-shore heat flow reaching epicosity out that way ... if that set up back east might actaully set up a Bahama blue pattern... .. That's where we get that S to N deep layer flow and 76 DP cobalt blue sky type air mass ... with tropical turret behavior all the way.    We haven't actually seen that type of tropical sounding transport scenario along the EC that I can recall in recent years. 

In any case, ...should something like that evolve for a stint in August that would technically be construed as a WAR -attributed pattern.  It's just not the continental heat variety.  

One thing I have never seen in that tropical pattern before is an actual TC getting sucked up in that conveyor - it's almost like the large scale forcing the sets that up might somehow suppress the latter.  ...hm. 

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still a pile left at Sunday River today

DF1RThkXoAEPWTm.jpg

That's pretty cool, must be the tarp because I've never seen melt patterns like that. If it was exposed it would be all cupped out instead of those smooth ridges.  Cool melt pattern.

I wonder what they were planning on doing with it.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I had a pile under a tarp in 15 lasted until early May

lol...I used to do that when I was younger.  I'd make a huge pile of snow in the shadiest part of my yard, preferable on the north side of evergreens and then cover it with hay and a tarp in April.  I got it to last until June one year.  My goal was July 4th but I never made that.  I always figured if you had a large enough pile you could...

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

lol...I used to do that when I was younger.  I'd make a huge pile of snow in the shadiest part of my yard, preferable on the north side of evergreens and then cover it with hay and a tarp in April.  I got it to last until June one year.  My goal was July 4th but I never made that.  I always figured if you had a large enough pile you could...

Hay is the best insulation, many times in cold climates people would cover deep piles of snow with hay as an emergency water source

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I had a pile under a tarp in 15 lasted until early May

The Augusta snow pile under the east end of the downstream bridge lasted thru August 25 in 2008.  Its "tarp" was several inches of sand and gravel left as the upper part of the pile melted.  Was weird to see on calm midsummer mornings with TD near 70 - fog rolling off the pile.

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Today was a top 10 day.

High of 72F with a dew around 50F all day...feels like fall with a nice north breeze at 5-15mph.  

Looked like Montpelier barely hit 70F under full sunshine in late July.  That seems crazy to me for some reason.  No clouds or rain holding it down, just a cool airmass.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today was a top 10 day.

High of 72F with a dew around 50F all day...feels like fall with a nice north breeze at 5-15mph.  

Looked like Montpelier barely hit 70F under full sunshine in late July.  That seems crazy to me for some reason.  No clouds or rain holding it down, just a cool airmass.

It was a little chilly at times up on Tumbledown. I would say best the summit was tickling 50s.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was a little chilly at times up on Tumbledown. I would say best the summit was tickling 50s.

Yeah folks on the Zipline here were a little chilled for the first mile long span that runs in the 3600-2700ft range.  

Just looking now we had a high of 70.2F in the base area and 60F at the top of the Gondola (though most of the day was 55-58F) at 3,625ft.

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