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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Sorry, I thought 0.50" was in the forecast. like always, always hoping for more.emoji106.png

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

Wouldn't surprise me if the P&C read something along those lines, since it likes to lump everything in 0.25" bins.

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You know you've hit rock bottom when the grids show the temperature rising for 36 straight hours just to get you to 2 F below normal

Still, I've seen obnoxious cold in all months of summer along the 40th parallel ...living at various times between Michigan and Massachusetts over the last several decades.  It's unusualness is what it is, and is statistically quantifiable... okay. But I don't find it as telling to anything other than how miserable conditions are.  This wasn't about breaking records and enableing cold weather/snow enthusiasts their little party in summer-crushing fantasy .. it was about specifically targeting this geographical region for climate injustice.  hahaha

Top 10 days?  This is a bottom 2 or 3 so far.  I do see some semblance on the hi res visible imagery loops that the tropospheric quagmire may be at last trying to thin (at least a little) over western zones/geographies. Perhaps the (in theory as still existing... heh) high-ish sun angles will actually take some controls here?   

It's patterns like this that make me wonder if the sun swelling a billion years from now ... will fail to mean the end of life on Earth - because clearly Earth can be cold and thumb nose at the sun.  The Earth is more powerful than the sun - 

Kidding of course...but it's the frustration of the thing.  

In any case, I still don't see any reason why August will be any different - oh ...it'll be different than today.  But ... what wouldn't?  As far as the patterning that really appears to be a hemispheric/globular thing ( I think ) ... this least excuse imagined to keep the flow NW,or heavily dented, over the EC aspect of all? That is what god himself is powerless to alter. 

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The GFS vanishing qpf worked overtime for my area.  Friday it was showing 2"+.  By Sunday it was down to 0.7" and yesterday morning to 0.4".  At 7 this morning my total was 0.10" and I doubt the little line of showers  7-8A did more than wet the ground (though it wet me fairly well on my walk from car to office in Augusta.)  Yesterday morning's P&C for 04955 was oddly conflicted.  The prose for both the day and night periods mentioned heavy rain, but each also had "less than a tenth" and no "except for" comments.

Piling on, now it looks like Thurs-Fri rain is headed south (literally) as well.

Have some spaghetti sauce w/meatballs in the fridge, waiting for a day like this. 

And we found the sauce had molded in the fridge and had to be tossed.  Plan B was microwave pseudo-Mexican thing-ies that were barely edible.  What a wonderful day!

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21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yesterday was -14F for ORH

brought the monthly departure to +0.1F.     Still an inch below monthly rainfall

Ah ahaha - that's awesome. 

I hope folks realize much of my rant above was motivated out of commiseration and tongue-in-cheek spirited.    

But, I did mention going into this two days ago that we just spent four or more days in a row bathed in relative torridity ...so having a counter-balancing (if we want to cal it that) cold enough to off set those numbers, is probably not that absurd. 

But here's the confusing aspect ( I know you didn't ask for any of this ... I'm just musing in a slow moment at work for the general enthusiasts).  This is an obnoxiously deep anomaly in cold. That's more than merely sensibly seeming that way.  So, what gives... ?  It seems as thoug the "patterning of departure" is what is extreme.  Our Standard Deviation events are behaving weird.  

It's like we get five days of +4 depatures (that's day and night means/diurnal total mean and so forth ..) smoldering along,  then boom! two days of -15 to -20 ... and what do you get for it?  O. Zilcha. Nadda.  But, you definitely were annoyed by sack sticker weather that ground and eroded on the patience of society, triggering road rage and urban violence ...Only to be followed by this, some S.A.D. attack misery.  That journey just to call your climate normal.  Heh. Probably making more out of it then it's worth in both directions. 

You know ... I and I am sure most savvy contributors in here have read and/or seen and/or watched different information/science sources over the years that discussed that one of the bigger physical/sensible impacts of GW is not so much the GW its self (though there is that...). It's that extremes that are actually modeled to be more extreme. 

Now... One cannot be sure that that any given odd behavior of standard deviation events is GW (the tired rhetoric and favorite mantra of the GW deniers...) but.... when you think of 300% of seasonal snow totals in one 5 week period in a random February of a random year that didn't really have any antecedent other cause or evidence leading, maybe there's something to all this.  

I just find it interesting that no matter what the pattern has done, low height relative to all have been tacked and locked in place, right here over New England, while the whole of the atmosphere seems to pivot around it.  That's an odd series of dice-rolls in its own rite - maybe that's all it is too

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okay i've seen this before, too ... 

the only way we are clearing is from the N in this set up. 

The low clouds and mist and saturated gunk is all slowly going to pivot S through New England.. the cloud line breaks apart on the N edge as the whole mass slides S ... probably making skylight down as far as southern NH in the hour before sunset this evening...  

It also occurs to me, I remember seeing this exact same scenario play out (really ...remarkably similar actually) a couple of weeks ago.  that's some pattern lock.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay i've seen this before, too ... 

the only way we are clearing is from the N in this set up. 

The low clouds and mist and saturated gunk is all slowly going to pivot S through New England.. the cloud line breaks apart on the N edge as the whole mass slides S ... probably making skylight down as far as southern NH in the hour before sunset this evening...  

It also occurs to me, I remember seeing this exact same scenario play out (really ...remarkably similar actually) a couple of weeks ago.  that's some pattern lock.  

 

Bingo!

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Bingo!

yeah...i wouldn't be shocked if there is a blue slot here and there at about 7:21 pm over the region N of the Pike later on.  could even see some yellow glow off the tops of taller buildings as the sun's failure mocks heading out the door

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So what's going on up there Brian - 

is it one of those deals where the satellite shows clearing is solidly taking place yet it's still cloudy :axe:

... in any case, high res vis imagery shows that there is a pretty good punch of drier breaking the ovc over NH and lower Maine, and being that it is only now just noon ...I wonder if that might lift ceilings down this way

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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the worst summers in recent memory for me, wx wise.    I'm hoping that warmth modeled for late next week comes through.    

we're in b**ch mode ...  still, heh - i'd not count on that at all and wait to be pleasantly surprised.   PF said it pretty well in his own commiseration yesterday ... and if I may paraphrase in my own way -  if given 10 plausible solutions from the models this summer, the coldest one has ALWAYS verified. 

that's a pretty tough trend to buck.   ha.   

sometimes in this it really is like watching the 1998 alcs.  the 'sox were up in the 6th 5 to 2 but you knew the 'yanks were winnin' that game?  and you were powerless to stop the frustration before it then face-smacked happened. 

this is really quite the same.  we know that no heat will ever verify despite the statistics showing that it already has.  

i'm kidding of course -

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So what's going on up there Brian - 

is it one of those deals where the satellite shows clearing is solidly taking place yet it's still cloudy :axe:

... in any case, high res vis imagery shows that there is a pretty good punch of drier breaking the ovc over NH and lower Maine, and being that it is only now just noon ...I wonder if that might lift ceilings down this way

We lost our breaks. :axe:

http://www.newenglandwx.com/northfield-nh/cam.htm

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21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the worst summers in recent memory for me, wx wise.    I'm hoping that warmth modeled for late next week comes through.    

I've been loving this summer.  As the weekends are good, which for the most part they have been.  For those who have the summer off I guess it could be a bummer of summer.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Regional sat tries to argue you're better than that ... I've seen this before.  you walk out doors scratching head trying to figure out where this clearing is when the hi res vis shows it's gone past you.

One thing I'm noticing is that the "thick" stuff breaks and almost immediately there is corpuscular little convective blobs filling back in... Kind of like the mini dimples on the thigh of a 30 year-old that's let hers self go sooner than she her age says she should ...so there's that too.  

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Regional sat tries to argue you're better than that ... I've seen this before.  you walk out doors scratching head trying to figure out where this clearing is when the hi res vis shows it's gone past you.

One thing I'm noticing is that the "thick" stuff breaks and almost immediately there is corpuscular little convective blobs filling back in... Kind of like the mini dimples on the thigh of a 30 year-old that's let hers self go sooner than she her age says she should ...so there's that too.  

I've noticed GOES-16 vis on COD often looking more optimistic than reality.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ahaha - that's awesome. 

I hope folks realize much of my rant above was motivated out of commiseration and tongue-in-cheek spirited.    

But, I did mention going into this two days ago that we just spent four or more days in a row bathed in relative torridity ...so having a counter-balancing (if we want to cal it that) cold enough to off set those numbers, is probably not that absurd. 

But here's the confusing aspect ( I know you didn't ask for any of this ... I'm just musing in a slow moment at work for the general enthusiasts).  This is an obnoxiously deep anomaly in cold. That's more than merely sensibly seeming that way.  So, what gives... ?  It seems as thoug the "patterning of departure" is what is extreme.  Our Standard Deviation events are behaving weird.  

It's like we get five days of +4 depatures (that's day and night means/diurnal total mean and so forth ..) smoldering along,  then boom! two days of -15 to -20 ... and what do you get for it?  O. Zilcha. Nadda.  But, you definitely were annoyed by sack sticker weather that ground and eroded on the patience of society, triggering road rage and urban violence ...Only to be followed by this, some S.A.D. attack misery.  That journey just to call your climate normal.  Heh. Probably making more out of it then it's worth in both directions. 

You know ... I and I am sure most savvy contributors in here have read and/or seen and/or watched different information/science sources over the years that discussed that one of the bigger physical/sensible impacts of GW is not so much the GW its self (though there is that...). It's that extremes that are actually modeled to be more extreme. 

Now... One cannot be sure that that any given odd behavior of standard deviation events is GW (the tired rhetoric and favorite mantra of the GW deniers...) but.... when you think of 300% of seasonal snow totals in one 5 week period in a random February of a random year that didn't really have any antecedent other cause or evidence leading, maybe there's something to all this.  

I just find it interesting that no matter what the pattern has done, low height relative to all have been tacked and locked in place, right here over New England, while the whole of the atmosphere seems to pivot around it.  That's an odd series of dice-rolls in its own rite - maybe that's all it is too

Since moving up here to New England from Delaware, it feels like this has been the case in this region. The Mid Atlantic bakes, while we sit in this cool pool of air, no matter what season it is. Maybe this is just a short term 5-10 year pattern or maybe there is something more significant going on. My partially scientific thought would be with the melting arctic ice and a pooling of really deep, cold water in the Northern Atlantic, maybe there is something to the shifting north pole. Funny thing would be watching a batch of ice start to develop up there and become a permanent fixture. Are we witnessing the infancy of the North Atlantic ice shelf? Shifting of the axis a bit? Assuming the accelerated warming of the planet is due to an outside force (humans) we are seeing the planet going through a quick reboot in an attempt to fix things before having to do a full reprogramming? I guess time will tell, but one would assume the planet will attempt to fix the problem and not just give up.... Just a thought on this damp, dreary day.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I've noticed GOES-16 vis on COD often looking more optimistic than reality.

A couple narrow looking breaks between the stratus here from what I can see... but the VIS looks a lot more optimistic.  Must be just north/northeast of here with the better clearing.

That area from the Adirondacks through the Berkshires and into SNE though is locked in good it seems.

July_25.jpg.73a7b940d8980f44481e2890a8c6e360.jpg

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