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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We get summer showers here that are sometimes no more than a couple of miles of coverage and disappear as quickly as they "pop up". 

Had one like that Sunday evening.  Scattered drops at the church parking lot - good thing as my ultra-slow tire pump took about 15 minutes to inflate a neighbor's flat, rather small Volvo tire.  Then 2 miles to the east I needed high gear from the wipers to keep me on the road (at 25 mph) as I drove a back road from Farmington into New Sharon.  Another mile and pavement was dry, and home - a mile or two from the toad strangler I'd driven thru - we got a brief shower worth 0.08" a half hour later.  I think there was more per minute in the earlier downpour.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps sure...  

This may be the apex HI of the season anyway...  Not sure.  August is a long month of still higher sun (though dims some late), and should one of these extended 594 DM height Hades actually materialize, THAT would probably be the apex. 

Seasonal trend is against, but we'll see.  Until such time tho, "92/70" is pretty rich and is also up there for our climo so it could very well be this type of deal for this particular summer. 

I think BOS hit 96 last month.  I know they've been AOA 95 at least twice.

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On 7/14/2017 at 2:36 PM, dendrite said:

No luck. Still clicking.

I'm wondering if I had some kind of surge go through. It's weird though. My motherboard has ruptured capacitors and failed...the new one seems to work fine. In a separate, but similar timing incident, my monitor died as well. Obviously those 2 things are on different power supplies. The PC and monitor are also plugged into separate surge protectors too. So who knows? I'm thinking of trying to swap out the PCB of the hdd with a donor. These drives are so old and of low capacity that they only run $15-20 on amazon and ebay. I'll just try to get one of the same model, manufacture date, and firmware revision. I saw some guy one youtube have success with that with an old WD hdd. I guess it's worth a shot. Not sue if I'll have to swap the ROM chips though? The guy on there had 3 separate donors...2 eliminated the clicking but didnt read. The last one worked perfectly. So if that's the problem it'll be a crapshoot either way.

Well that was a fail. I found an exact PCB match for my HDD too. It's spinning, but I continue to get the click of death. Something must be wrong with the head or the magnetic arm. If the drive was one platter I'd be tempted to get a new drive and try to swap it, but I believe mine is 2 40gb platters..not 100% positive though. How to align multiple platters is way over my head and I'd probably permanently damage the drive without a clean room.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots def got a temper. Add a little alcohol and watch the hell out

Thanks buddy.

 

Anyways I'm referring to down here and our wonderful local OCMs in the morning. You'd never hear Harvey just  obsess over spot or pop ups. He at least can give some effort. It's pretty easy to fine tune an area that has increased risk. If your domain covers everywhere from the CT River to ACK...I think it's not mind blowing to narrow down an area. I heard a 4 day forecast from AM1030 that mentioned pop ups each and every day for the next 4. :lol: 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Word had been out that warm sunny days and clear chilly nights were coming 

Low of 44 last Friday, different airmass now with upper 60s for dews.  Change may be coming this weekend, though GYX backed off the cooldown in their afternoon AFD.  We're now well into the peak of summer temp plateau, and while I'm not a fan of warm/muggy, the veggie garden loves it. 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a tough defeat for him at the hands of ginxygonewild.

 

Gotta move on though...

lol yeah well to be fair he said no 70s or BN weather....except it was 50s and 60s.

Glad he can get some low-grade heat for mid-summer as it's been a tough one for him to find positives.  

It is the time of year, might as well have a few days over 82F up here.

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10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Low of 44 last Friday, different airmass now with upper 60s for dews.  Change may be coming this weekend, though GYX backed off the cooldown in their afternoon AFD.  We're now well into the peak of summer temp plateau, and while I'm not a fan of warm/muggy, the veggie garden loves it. 

Sorry, didn't so much back off as didn't elaborate given the next few days offer some heat and storm chances. That wave Sunday should bring in a classic Kevin mild down.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks buddy.

 

Anyways I'm referring to down here and our wonderful local OCMs in the morning. You'd never hear Harvey just  obsess over spot or pop ups. He at least can give some effort. It's pretty easy to fine tune an area that has increased risk. If your domain covers everywhere from the CT River to ACK...I think it's not mind blowing to narrow down an area. I heard a 4 day forecast from AM1030 that mentioned pop ups each and every day for the next 4. :lol: 

Yeah it's true, I guess even up here when they do it they say the hills and mountains could have pop up showers which does narrow it down slightly.  

I get it, the week long graphic with sun, a cloud and a raindrop all week does look like mailing it in for a metro area forecast.  

Though up here that's what it feels like most days...the sun/cloud/raindrop icon could run for three months straight.  Just like in the winter when JSpin and I joke you could put a snowflake and 50% chance of snow showers all winter long if the temp is under 32F and above 0F.  Never rains/snows all day but at least a passing shower seems omnipresent.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's true, I guess even up here when they do it they say the hills and mountains could have pop up showers which does narrow it down slightly.  

I get it, the week long graphic with sun, a cloud and a raindrop all week does look like mailing it in for a metro area forecast.  

Though up here that's what it feels like most days...the sun/cloud/raindrop icon could run for three months straight.  Just like in the winter when JSpin and I joke you could put a snowflake and 50% chance of snow showers all winter long if the temp is under 32F and above 0F.  Never rains/snows all day but at least a passing shower seems omnipresent.

Actually I might rage more in the winter with mountain showers. We know it is going to snow, so we should have way more than 50% PoP. Every time we say upslope snow showers in the AFD and have a 30 PoP a little piece of me dies.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Sorry, didn't so much back off as didn't elaborate given the next few days offer some heat and storm chances. That wave Sunday should bring in a classic Kevin mild down.

This is summer's first deep-dew period that lasted more than a couple days here, so well worth highlighting.  "Mild down" is just what this summertime wuss likes to read. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually I might rage more in the winter with mountain showers. We know it is going to snow, so we should have way more than 50% PoP. Every time we say upslope snow showers in the AFD and have a 30 PoP a little piece of me dies.

Could be worse...forecasting for MCO area during their spring/summer/autumn...92/72 with 40-60% chance of pop up daily 3PM thunderstorms for 8 months straight

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually I might rage more in the winter with mountain showers. We know it is going to snow, so we should have way more than 50% PoP. Every time we say upslope snow showers in the AFD and have a 30 PoP a little piece of me dies.

Ha reminds me of the many BTV AFD's I've read saying "Day 3-7 the pattern supports daily (at least light) snows for the mountains on cyclonic flow.  I'll admit we should just put likely or higher POPs each day but will leave it at 40-50% per protocol of keeping POPs down after day 3."  

Along the Spine you could go 60-70% snow showers each day and be right 7 out of 10 days probably...though the one sunny day might seem odd in there haha.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could be worse...forecasting for MCO area during their spring/summer/autumn...92/72 with 40-60% chance of pop up daily 3PM thunderstorms for 8 months straight

At least put that effort in. We know it won't be 40-60% PoP all day, so at least ramp up around a certain time to help people out.

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha reminds me of the many BTV AFD's I've read saying "Day 3-7 the pattern supports daily light snows for the mountains on cyclonic flow.  I'll admit we should just put likely or higher POPs each day but will leave it at 40-50% per protocol of keeping POPs down after day 3."  

Along the Spine you could go 60-70% snow showers each day and be right 7 out of 10 days probably...though the one sunny day might seem odd in there haha.

I always put likely PoP for Pittsburg in upslope patterns now. Because honestly we all know it's going to snow. I'm pretty sure we've gotten more snow in an upslope event up there than we had chance of precip in the forecast.

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18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At least put that effort in. We know it won't be 40-60% PoP all day, so at least ramp up around a certain time to help people out.

I always put likely PoP for Pittsburg in upslope patterns now. Because honestly we all know it's going to snow. I'm pretty sure we've gotten more snow in an upslope event up there than we had chance of precip in the forecast.

And there is that. Giving your whole domain the window of 1-7pm...a domain where many won't even see a storm is mailing it in as well. I don't mean to rant...I just get annoyed at the rip and read and collect a check mentality to forecasts. I saw another gem this morning where the met lowered and raise the chances of rain in certain towns, with each model run. :facepalm:  

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

After all this discussion I go to see our zone forecast for Lamoille County and see 30% chance showers Friday and 40-50% Saturday through Tuesday, lol.  

That's 5 days of partly sunny with 30-50% chance of showers.  Break out the sun/cloud/raindrop icon.

Part of that is a function of how many offices do extended forecasts (GYX included). We do 12 hour blocks of PoP, you all day or night you'll get one value. BOX on the other hand does hourly through day 8. So they can ramp up and down values.

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