Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[Hazey]

Things are rockin and rollin in the Aleutians. Some pretty strong quakes in the last 45mins. No reports of tsunamis as of yet.


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[dendrite]

For you beer snobs...this place is moving in just down my road.

https://www.facebook.com/kettleheadbrewing/

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... looks like mid to high 7's seismic event

 

So, we may have a heat wave underway for some favored locales.  It's not a barn-burner air mass, but has that 88 to 93 appeal for today through Thursday for many spots in the interior. 

DPs are higher than previous run-ins with heat-wave numbers so far this warm season, though, so it may be worth noting because HI's may be up there.   

[Lava Rock]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

For you beer snobs...this place is moving in just down my road.

https://www.facebook.com/kettleheadbrewing/

great to see all these microbrews open, but i wonder how many will be left in a couple years.

[CoastalWx]

I think any met who says "spot showers" and " pop ups"  might as well say.....I'm not putting any phucking effort into this forecast.  

[CapturedNature]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... looks like mid to high 7's seismic event

 

So, we may have a heat wave underway for some favored locales.  It's not a barn-burner air mass, but has that 88 to 93 appeal for today through Thursday for many spots in the interior. 

DPs are higher than previous run-ins with heat-wave numbers so far this warm season, though, so it may be worth noting because HI's may be up there.   

Just in time for peak climo at many locations.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think any met who says "spot showers" and " pop ups"  might as well say.....I'm not putting any phucking effort into this forecast.  

Related, there was just some discussion on the NWS employees Facebook group about 50% PoP. Some argued that it does nothing for the public (i.e. you're just as likely to see showers as not), while others argued 50% is greater than climo and so provides information that rain is more likely today than on a normal day.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Related, there was just some discussion on the NWS employees Facebook group about 50% PoP. Some argued that it does nothing for the public (i.e. you're just as likely to see showers as not), while others argued 50% is greater than climo and so provides information that rain is more likely today than on a normal day.

  So then why can't we mention or highlight the best areas to receive showers or storms? I mean we never really get "pop ups" in the northeast. This isn't florida. It's usually synoptically driven and models do a good job highlighting the areas to get lit up. I just cringe when I hear "spot showers" or "pop ups." I think we can do better than that. Maybe I'm just used to making a call in my profession, but how is anyone planning for "spot showers?" This is really for the OCMs I hear around here. Must be nice to put in 0 effort and get a 6 figure check.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

  So then why can't we mention or highlight the best areas to receive showers or storms? I mean we never really get "pop ups" in the northeast. This isn't florida. It's usually synoptically driven and models do a good job highlighting the areas to get lit up. I just cringe when I hear "spot showers" or "pop ups." I think we can do better than that. Maybe I'm just used to making a call in my profession, but how is anyone planning for "spot showers?"

The other day I heard "chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm simply from the higher humidity in place". Had to laugh.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The other day I heard "chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm simply from the higher humidity in place". Had to laugh.

We as humans are making a great case to be replaced by automation. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Pop goes the weasel 

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Just in time for peak climo at many locations.

Perhaps sure...  

This may be the apex HI of the season anyway...  Not sure.  August is a long month of still higher sun (though dims some late), and should one of these extended 594 DM height Hades actually materialize, THAT would probably be the apex. 

Seasonal trend is against, but we'll see.  Until such time tho, "92/70" is pretty rich and is also up there for our climo so it could very well be this type of deal for this particular summer. 

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  So then why can't we mention or highlight the best areas to receive showers or storms? I mean we never really get "pop ups" in the northeast. This isn't florida. It's usually synoptically driven and models do a good job highlighting the areas to get lit up. I just cringe when I hear "spot showers" or "pop ups." I think we can do better than that. Maybe I'm just used to making a call in my profession, but how is anyone planning for "spot showers?" This is really for the OCMs I hear around here. Must be nice to put in 0 effort and get a 6 figure check.

With all the new data sources, time-lagged ensembles, and CAMs we should definitely be able to shade higher chances of precipitation to certain parts of all our respective forecast areas. I'm cool with saying you can't tell anyone exactly where the shower is going to be, but within a more defined area that seems favorable for convection. Just carpet bombing the entire forecast area drives me nuts.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We as humans are making a great case to be replaced by automation. 

There is so much "easy button" and set and forget grid work at least locally that you have a point here. I think there could be a utility to that someday for the NWS if we use that extra time for research, outreach, training, etc. But until I see it, let's get our forecast grids tight and stop blindly accepting what the model spits out.

[Typhoon Tip]

Glad our personnel down here at KTAN are on to this ...

"..Heat index values may be near 95 in a few locations Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. This may require the issuance of a heat advisory...."

I'm not seeing how we are escaping that risk with soundings not mixing out statically elevated DPs while adiabatic profiles support surface tempts around 92 or 93.  HI would be above 95... Depends though... convective debris mornings and even bio-phage atmosphere in a borderline scenario could cap it at 94 but we'll see.  

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Lots of rain and clouds keeping maxes down, while not being excessively humid so the mins are fairly normal.

I've noticed the maxes really seem to be different from SNE/CNE this particular summer for some reason.  Lots of congestive Cu off the mountains while BTV gets full sun all day so east of the Spine is shadowed by those orographic clouds.  BTV sees a high of 86F while it's 80F at the interior sites.  Lots of days like today where most everyone in New England gets well into the 80s but NW gets rain/storms by 12-2pm and it's over at mid-70s.

I do think the predominant W/NW flow in the means around that gyre up north does keep the upslope regions cooler on that flow from precipitation but also largely clouds that form over the mountains and drift downwind.  Then we got hit with back to back -10 departures with that marine mank a few days ago and no real heat to offset it.

Have not seen a departure greater than 8F since June 19.  For temps it's the summer of meh - after today June and July will each be within 0.2F of my average.  For precip, it's the summer of many days with a little bit of rain (though July is running a bit AN so far, after June's 3"+ deficit.)  Enjoyed the surprise TS this morning, though.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Have not seen a departure greater than 8F since June 19.  For temps it's the summer of meh - after today June and July will each be within 0.2F of my average.  For precip, it's the summer of many days with a little bit of rain (though July is running a bit AN so far, after June's 3"+ deficit.)  Enjoyed the surprise TS this morning, though.

Best kind!  

 

I like the "...enjoyed the surprise 5.78" of snow this morning" too  - ...  

Anyway, this image sums up my bitching and whining and moaning and opining over the blagh boredom weather we've been in for ...pretty much since the 2015 big snow Feb month...  

Here is February according to NASA:

 

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2564/february-2017-was-second-warmest-february-on-record/

June, on the other hand, is the 4th warmest month on record (relative to Junes over 137 years or record keeping...), yet, has a relative cool tonality to the shading over our region. 

The all effectively means ...we are relaying piece of shyt winters into piece of shyt summers.  For those of us that equally celebrate summers and winters, while admonishing times when things are behaving badly (haha)... this is a an incredible long duration admonishing time -  

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Quick shower coming through now.  The summer of moist continues. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... looks like mid to high 7's seismic event

 

So, we may have a heat wave underway for some favored locales.  It's not a barn-burner air mass, but has that 88 to 93 appeal for today through Thursday for many spots in the interior. 

DPs are higher than previous run-ins with heat-wave numbers so far this warm season, though, so it may be worth noting because HI's may be up there.   

Friday looks like it could tickle 90 for some me folks as well.  KASH, KFIT, KBED maybe 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think any met who says "spot showers" and " pop ups"  might as well say.....I'm not putting any phucking effort into this forecast.  

I don't know, it's really tough up here a lot to pinpoint that type of stuff.  Showers with low pop low QPF set-ups are very difficult to figure out where they will form so spot showers seems to suffice up here.  But in the mountains it may be different with differential heating and odd little forcing and stuff.  

I feel like 40% would be climo here or even 50% if going with just a trace of precip...50% of the days seem to see something fall from the sky in the general mountains area.

I guess I don't see the issue with pop up showers but maybe in other areas where there's no adjacent higher terrain it's a cop out.  Probably varies from CWA to another.

[tamarack]

Anyway, this image sums up my bitching and whining and moaning and opining over the blagh boredom weather we've been in for ...pretty much since the 2015 big snow Feb month...

Here is February according to NASA:

Like politics, all weather (and wx preference) is local.  Feb 2015 was a major disappointment here for snow - total was about average (23") without budging the snowpack at all, plus the great VD blizzard fakeout.  The sustained cold smashed the old mark for coldest Feb, but without tickling many daily low records, just total lack of warmth without extreme cold mornings.

Feb 2017 is another case of contrasts.  Temp averaged 6F AN while snowfall was more than double the average, and Feb was my snowiest month even prior to this year.  Some tall snowpack, too, 47" at my place, 62" at Hartford, Maine and the infamous 76" at Andover.

[Baroclinic Zone]

85/67  It's sticky but manageable.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I don't know, it's really tough up here a lot to pinpoint that type of stuff.  

..,

I guess I don't see the issue with pop up showers but maybe in other areas where there's no adjacent higher terrain it's a cop out.  Probably varies from CWA to another.

We get summer showers here that are sometimes no more than a couple of miles of coverage and disappear as quickly as they "pop up". 

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We get summer showers here that are sometimes no more than a couple of miles of coverage and disappear as quickly as they "pop up". 

Today is a perfect example...you'd never be able to pin point this.

MVL at 12pm with -RN and 0.03" but zone forecast says Mostly Sunny and probably 80% of the area will be dry.

BTV noted the few small showers in the midday update.

&& Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 109 PM EDT Tuesday...weak surface high pressure continues to ridge into the region this afternoon. The upper level trof is moving out with warm advection aloft. Have noticed a couple tiny showers popping up east of The Greens, but no lightning has been noted.

 

 

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today is a perfect example...you'd never be able to pin point this.

MVL at 12pm with -RN and 0.03" but zone forecast says Mostly Sunny and probably 80% of the area will be dry.

BTV noted the few small showers in the midday update.

&& Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 109 PM EDT Tuesday...weak surface high pressure continues to ridge into the region this afternoon. The upper level trof is moving out with warm advection aloft. Have noticed a couple tiny showers popping up east of The Greens, but no lightning has been noted.

 

 

Don't let Scooter know, he will rage!

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today is a perfect example...you'd never be able to pin point this.

MVL at 12pm with -RN and 0.03" but zone forecast says Mostly Sunny and probably 80% of the area will be dry.

BTV noted the few small showers in the midday update.

&& Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 109 PM EDT Tuesday...weak surface high pressure continues to ridge into the region this afternoon. The upper level trof is moving out with warm advection aloft. Have noticed a couple tiny showers popping up east of The Greens, but no lightning has been noted.

And I think Scott would argue we are good enough to know the moisture was really better situated east of the spine, so we should say showers more likely there.

Or he would flip the conference table over at work in a rage.

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And I think Scott would argue we are good enough to know the moisture was really better situated east of the spine, so we should say showers more likely there.

Or he would flip the conference table over at work in a rage.

That's my vote 

[Damage In Tolland]

Scoots def got a temper. Add a little alcohol and watch the hell out

[CapturedNature]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I don't know, it's really tough up here a lot to pinpoint that type of stuff.  Showers with low pop low QPF set-ups are very difficult to figure out where they will form so spot showers seems to suffice up here.  But in the mountains it may be different with differential heating and odd little forcing and stuff.  

I feel like 40% would be climo here or even 50% if going with just a trace of precip...50% of the days seem to see something fall from the sky in the general mountains area.

I guess I don't see the issue with pop up showers but maybe in other areas where there's no adjacent higher terrain it's a cop out.  Probably varies from CWA to another.

Back when I was in college we always referred to pop up type showers as instability showers.  I also remember one of my professors saying "the mountains make their own weather sometimes" so they can play by their own rules.

I think the whole percentage forecast thing doesn't mean anything to the general public.  I think descriptors like "chance of showers" and perhaps a qualifier like "slight chance of showers" or "strong chance of showers" means more.  You can also say "scattered showers" or "hit or miss showers" would carry the same weight.  People aren't thinking of climo like we do.  Even using the word "precip" can confuse them.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

85/67  It's sticky but manageable.

84/69, late afternoon DP jump.

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL hit 90. Should be the first of 4 straight . September to remember?