• Member Statistics

    15,532
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Rowdy2x
    Newest Member
    Rowdy2x
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
George BM

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GOES-16 imagery will never get old.

I know! I hope we get a cat5 this year within good range of it to look at in full GOES-16 glory. Or even just a RI'ing cat 4 with lots of eyewall lightning captured by the GLM. :wub:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just looking down the road to see if there was a next. Doesn't look promising for anything off the coast of Africa through day 15 (and possibly beyond) at this point but we are still a little early in the season for that anyway. With a High settling in over the central and eastern Atlantic it is creating a flow that is forcing any impulses that could possibly seed a storm to far south. If we could get a somewhat vigorous impulse to bust through that road block the conditions are somewhat favorable for development in the central and eastern Atlantic as it reaches warmer water. So that is always a possibility. At this point though I think our best chances probably lie in a home brew. Which is normally the case this time of year anyway. Conditions seem somewhat favorable for something possibly developing in the Gulf or northern Caribbean islands. Now whether something does is another story. Southern Caribbean doesn't look promising though as there is a fairly fast flow there through the period.

Considering I am more a casual observer when it comes to tropical then anything else I would be interested on hearing your more knowledgeable take.

Yeah, we are a little bit early in the season for CV storms, and the eastern Caribbean is still the graveyard for the foreseeable future. Anything we see would probably be homebrew, and nothing stands out. That's fine. Sometimes we start fast and get a lull before we get to late July and the coming peak of the season. What matters to me is that it still looks like we'll get to an active season eventually. 

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not ready to give up yet on a meaningfull rain event here ( 1"+) . Fwiw..Gefs mean qpf has steadily increased the last 4 cycles and with that moisture plume directed at us with off the chart pwats ( 2.2+) the core of Cindy wouldn't necessarily have to hit us to get benefits.  Looks like plenty of moisture way out ahead of the actual circulation will beeline towards us. If only the mountains weren't there . Apps will steal some no doubt but I'm in for some drought relief .

Same here. The trend hasn't been friendly overall, but we still have time to get a good rain event. 

Quote
Forecast details are beginning to come into focus with the
tropical moisture influx and remnants of Cindy, though some
timing and location differences still exist. Leading shortwave
will be rounding the ridge to our southeast Thursday night. Good
moisture transport should bring some showers to at least the
mountains overnight, then potentially overspreading most of the
area Friday morning. There may be some subsidence behind this
wave, so there are some questions whether destabilization will
take place and how much shower/storm activity will occur Friday
afternoon and evening. Will maintain high chance to likely POPs
though. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday
night. This front will also be steering the remnants of Cindy.
Based on current progs, shower chances will increase again
toward dawn Saturday. Will have to monitor for heavy rain
potential and placement of these features, as precipitable water
values will increase near or above 2 inches with high warm
cloud depths. Diurnal temperature ranges will be muted Friday
with clouds and the moist airmass with highs in the 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concern Saturday is what happens to Tropical Storm Cindy`s
remnants. Guidance seems to be sending the circulation to our
south, but that doesn`t mean it couldn`t deviate (north or
south) or that its moisture would bring minimal effects to our
region even if we had just a glancing blow, since there will be
an extratropical interaction ongoing. Bottom line is that heavy
rain is possible, especially in southern parts of the CWA, but
remains highly uncertain.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, yoda said:

11AM track has the remnants of Cindy going south of us it looks like... 7 AM SAT position is in SW VA

Was just going to post. Looks like the GFS Bros are still on board for a narrow stripe of meaningful rain Friday/Saturday. The GFS sounding is a touch interesting though. Below is around DCA at 21z Friday. Look at that PWAT! 

2017062112_GFS_057_38.8,-77.06_severe_ml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Using the super basic maps, but it looks like the euro is further north and more vigorous? At least at 850.

Yep.. Euro has Cindy maintain strength over land a little more and looks a touch quicker and probably the most noticeable change looking at Wxbell is the northern expanse of the precip field . Gets 1 -1.5" in our yards with a couple 2" lollies verbatim. 700 + 850 moisture feeds look more condensed and deeper  as the precip comes in the area...fwiw. crazy Pwats too

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep.. Euro has Cindy maintain strength over land a little more and looks a touch quicker and probably the most noticeable change looking at Wxbell is the northern expanse of the precip field . Gets 1 -1.5" in our yards with a couple 2" lollies verbatim. 700 + 850 moisture feeds look more condensed and deeper  as the precip comes in the area...fwiw. crazy Pwats too

I wonder if the Euro bias towards (relative) wetness of the coupled soil-moisture / atmosphere boundary in the SW is coming into play here as Cindy maintains some strength post-landfall in the runs.  There has been no real significant rainfall in the region recently and the soil moisture is on average only at 50% capacity in the top 10cm layer with correspondingly low numbers for plant transpiration.  An example of this effect is the dry air that entrained on the left side of the storm today and moved around the internal core throughout the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, das said:

I wonder if the Euro bias towards (relative) wetness of the coupled soil-moisture / atmosphere boundary in the SW is coming into play here as Cindy maintains some strength post-landfall in the runs.  There has been no real significant rainfall in the region recently and the soil moisture is on average only at 50% capacity in the top 10cm layer with correspondingly low numbers for plant transpiration.  An example of this effect is the dry air that entrained on the left side of the storm today and moved around the internal core throughout the day.

Does that mean that the Euro is essentially overdoing the strength of any remnants and precip potential?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Does that mean that the Euro is essentially overdoing the strength of any remnants and precip potential?

It means that it is a known bias in the US Southwest on the Euro so it very well may be.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18Z GFS has come in even wetter for the remnants of Cindy. Now shows a narrow strip of 2+ inches through central MD. Would love to see this but I think we are more likely to see closer to the 1/2 inch totals being advertised previously then the totals GFS has thrown out the last few runs. From past experience these type of setups almost always under-perform and quite often substantially. For my gardens sake I hope I am wrong. For Mappy's sake I hope I am right. :)

Does anybody have the qpf from the Euro? Curious if it is in line withe the bigger numbers the GFS is now throwing out.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hoping the 18z gfs is way wrong. Gotta make a call by tomorrow evening whether to cancel the party we've got planned for Saturday, so here's hoping tomorrow trends better in terms of less rain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The 18Z GFS has come in even wetter for the remnants of Cindy. Now shows a narrow strip of 2+ inches through central MD. Would love to see this but I think we are more likely to see closer to the 1/2 inch totals being advertised previously then the totals GFS has thrown out the last few runs. From past experience these type of setups almost always under-perform and quite often substantially. For my gardens sake I hope I am wrong. For Mappy's sake I hope I am right. :)

Does anybody have the qpf from the Euro? Curious if it is in line withe the bigger numbers the GFS is now throwing out.

 

I posted qpf Euro earlier . (1-1.5") area wide with lollies of 2" :)

With a sharp cutoff about 40 miles south of DC I might add.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I posted qpf Euro earlier . (1-1.5") area wide with lollies of 2" :)

With a sharp cutoff about 60 miles south of DC I might add.

I'm deeply concerned about how narrow that qpf stripe is. Could be an awful game of winners and losers. 

Under the radar severe threat too on Friday if you believe the GFS. Timing isn't ideal and I'm not sure about instability lol but the shear profile is solid at 21z Friday.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm deeply concerned about how narrow that qpf stripe is. Could be an awful game of winners and losers. 

Under the radar severe threat too on Friday if you believe the GFS. Timing isn't ideal and I'm not sure about instability lol but the shear profile is solid at 21z Friday.

Sterling AFD Agrees with severe potential and also has flood concerns.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z GFS has backed off somewhat on the rainfall. GFS now shows 3/4" to 1.5 inches for the central MD region with the max strip moved southward from earlier runs through DC running up towards southern Jersey. This is vs the 18z which had 1.25" to 2.5" with the max strip running through the northern counties and the Pa/Md line, and the 12Z with a similar max strip though the northern counties and totals of 1.25 to 1.75".  

GEFS has also followed with a southward progression of the max strip through DC towards southern Jersey vs its earlier runs of running that through southern PA and the Mason Dixon line. Rainfall totals are somewhat comparable to prior runs with .75" to 1.25" falling through the DC/Balt corridor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@WxWatcher007 Might have spoken too soon yesterday about the prospects of seeing something come off the African coast. The last couple of runs of the GFS now show a somewhat vigorous impulse coming off the coast, roughly 3 days from now, which is allowed to turn northward as it finds a weakness with a slackening of the Southwest flow. Manages to hold it together across the Atlantic before finally killing it off just east of the leeward islands. Still somewhat early but you never know and at least it would give us something to follow. Would be pretty impressive if something were to come of it though, considering how far south it exits off of the African continent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

00Z GFS has backed off somewhat on the rainfall. GFS now shows 3/4" to 1.5 inches for the central MD region with the max strip moved southward from earlier runs through DC running up towards southern Jersey. This is vs the 18z which had 1.25" to 2.5" with the max strip running through the northern counties and the Pa/Md line, and the 12Z with a similar max strip though the northern counties and totals of 1.25 to 1.75".  

GEFS has also followed with a southward progression of the max strip through DC towards southern Jersey vs its earlier runs of running that through southern PA and the Mason Dixon line. Rainfall totals are somewhat comparable to prior runs with .75" to 1.25" falling through the DC/Balt corridor.

06z GFS shifted that max area slightly NW. was about .2 IMBY, now closer to .3 or so. that cutoff tho is crazy. I know we need the rain, so I don't want to be a deb and wish it wasn't coming. But I'd be okay if it was out of here by 1pm. Is that too much to ask? 

 

... Euro has the bulk of the rain in the AM, out of the central MD area by 1pm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

@WxWatcher007 Might have spoken too soon yesterday about the prospects of seeing something come off the African coast. The last couple of runs of the GFS now show a somewhat vigorous impulse coming off the coast, roughly 3 days from now, which is allowed to turn northward as it finds a weakness with a slackening of the Southwest flow. Manages to hold it together across the Atlantic before finally killing it off just east of the leeward islands. Still somewhat early but you never know and at least it would give us something to follow. Would be pretty impressive if something were to come of it though, considering how far south it exits off of the African continent.

I love tropical, but I'm not following a fish storm :P 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, mappy said:

06z GFS shifted that max area slightly NW. was about .2 IMBY, now closer to .3 or so. that cutoff tho is crazy. I know we need the rain, so I don't want to be a deb and wish it wasn't coming. But I'd be okay if it was out of here by 1pm. Is that too much to ask? 

 

... Euro has the bulk of the rain in the AM, out of the central MD area by 1pm. 

I wish you luck this weekend. Know how that goes. Have had 3 camping trips planned this year so far that have taken a hard hit because of rain. One we outright canceled and the other two were raining 50-75% of the time. Kind of a bummer.

Wish I could justify spending the money on the Euro but during the summer I find I am often too busy with other things to really get my moneys worth. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love tropical, but I'm not following a fish storm :P 

And you consider yourself a hard core tropical fan. You don't hold a candle to us snow freaks that project possible snowstorms beyond the 15 day GFS range. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And you consider yourself a hard core tropical fan. You don't hold a candle to us snow freaks that project possible snowstorms beyond the 15 day GFS range. :P

Ha, if I followed every spinner in the Atlantic I'd cease being a functioning human. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 00Z GFS has followed the 18z with the shifting north of Cindy's remnants into central PA. Heaviest rain we see is confined MD/PA line and northward with 1 inch totals straddling the Mason Dixon. The Balt/DC corridor now see .5 inch totals or less with most of it falling through this evening when you get south and east of 95. The 12 K Nam shows much more promise with a strip of 2 to 3 inches through central MD though it should be taken with caution because run to run consistency has not been there. The 3K NAM falls in line with the GFS with .5" totals around DC  and roughly an inch around the MD/PA line. Also shows much of the rain falling through this evening for the southern portions of the region. 

Throwing out the 12K NAM, which I don't trust or believe at this point, the Euro actually looks to be the most promising for our region. The latest Euro has shifted the track north somewhat as to where we now see a fairly energetic impulse run through southern/central MD. The overall track actually closely mirrors my middle of the road  thoughts between the GFS and the Euro from several days ago that I felt had the most promise for our region. With this setup and track I would think the max strip would fall within MD and would not be surprised if we saw 1 to 2 inch totals with possible lollys of more embedded within it. But with very limited access to the Euro maps and at 24 hour increments at that there is quite a bit of conjecture and speculation on my part.

Edit: RGEM has 1"-1.5+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor with the max strip setting up just north of the cities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

The 00Z GFS has followed the 18z with the shifting north of Cindy's remnants into central PA. Heaviest rain we see is confined MD/PA line and northward with 1 inch totals straddling the Mason Dixon. The Balt/DC corridor now see .5 inch totals or less with most of it falling through this evening when you get south and east of 95. The 12 K Nam shows much more promise with a strip of 2 to 3 inches through central MD though it should be taken with caution because run to run consistency has not been there. The 3K NAM falls in line with the GFS with .5" totals around DC  and roughly an inch around the MD/PA line. Also shows much of the rain falling through this evening for the southern portions of the region. 

Throwing out the 12K NAM, which I don't trust or believe at this point, the Euro actually looks to be the most promising for our region. The latest Euro has shifted the track north somewhat as to where we now see a fairly energetic impulse run through southern/central MD. The overall track actually closely mirrors my middle of the road  thoughts between the GFS and the Euro from several days ago that I felt had the most promise for our region. With this setup and track I would think the max strip would fall within MD and would not be surprised if we saw 1 to 2 inch totals with possible lollys of more embedded within it. But with very limited access to the Euro maps and at 24 hour increments at that there is quite a bit of conjecture and speculation on my part.

Edit: RGEM has 1"-1.5+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor with the max strip setting up just north of the cities.

The cmc HRDPS 2.5k puts down 2 - 2.5" DC through Baltimore corridor fwiw. 

Euro has been consistent with its qpf placement last few runs...continues to show 1-1.7" for areas from Just  south of DC to the M /D line all though  I note it did skim back slightly. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The cmc HRDPS 2.5k puts down 2 - 2.5" DC through Baltimore corridor fwiw. 

Euro has been consistent with its qpf placement last few runs...continues to show 1-1.7" for areas from Just  south of DC to the M /D line all though  I note it did skim back slightly. 

 

 

Not familiar with the CMC HRDPS. Does it have any skill with tropical?  

You noted that the Euro cut back a touch on it's rainfall from it's previous run which is somewhat interesting in my mind because I thought the track and setup was actually a little better then previously.

 

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

we get the best tropical remnants ever

If we get over an inch I will consider it a win just for my garden and lawn's sake. Otherwise if tropical Remnants don't produce, at the bare minimum 3-4 inches, then it is a fail in my book.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@showmethesnow

I think the HRDPS is just a higher resolution of the RGEM and as far as( tropical ) use ..I think over land remnant tracking it probably falls in line with the other mesos but over open water I think Highrisk said once that mesos are configured to predict convection over land only so I defer..lol

Maby just noise on the Euro but looking closer it shifted the qpf placement south say 50 miles or so but instead of 2.1 lollies we have 1.8" lollies . So maby that mirrors your thoughts on track.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.