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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Also consider that the Euro, Canadian (usually cane happy) are pretty much not seeing this. Wouldn't put too much stock into the OP GFS at this point - it loves to spin up fantasy canes. 

I was not aware that the OP GFS does that... usually its the CMC/GGEM that spins up fantasy canes.

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15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'll just leave this here. 

 

 

15 hours ago, H2O said:

If we want canes Va needs to shift east about 200 miles

 

15 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

There's a first for everything. #2017ing

Some of the public responses in there are lol/cringeworthy.  "Isabel hit us hard so this map is wrong." 

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What a boring stretch. So much for my thoughts a few weeks ago that we would probably have some things to track. The relaxing of the strong northerly flow off the African coast that the models were advertising never really occurred. It continues to play He!! with the disturbances coming off the continent. And looking at the models isn't encouraging for the foreseeable future. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just looked. I see what you're saying. The major ops have had something weak spinning up along what looks like a stalled boundary in a few days. Problem is, I don't see much in the way of a mechanism to get it to ride inland. Also seeing some potential for another wave to pop in the MDR. Need to see more consistently before jumping in on either. 

Tropical ain't the way to the promised land bud :lol: 

Though nothing has changed my mind about an active season. 

You want your cake and eat it too? :P But as far as your mechanism I think we do though it would favor a South East impact but probably not up to our latitude. Anything that potentially spins up doesn't look as if it would go anywhere fast which would give it time to be influenced by the building southeast ridging later in the period that the GFS has been showing for at least a few days now.

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The overnight run of the CMC pops something early next week off the SE coast but allows it to escape as it doesn't have the Atlantic ridging building that GFS runs have shown. The 06Z GFS also pops a little something and that too allows it to escape as it loses the building ridge from prior runs. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Emily has a really nice inner core. Love seeing a tight circulation on radar. Depending on how quickly it moves over Florida, that could bode well for strengthening off the east coast. Just excited to get some more GOES-16 action.

Next ;)

ETA:

Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...TROPICAL STORM EMILY MAKES LANDFALL ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at 1045 AM EDT (1445 UTC)
on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF BRADENTON FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Sorry WxWatcher... from 11 AM Emily disco:

After emerging off of the east-central
Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days
2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind
shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to
10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt,
which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening
until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected
to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the
Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are
required for that area.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to
consolidate and develop during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical
wave.  This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche
through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions
appear conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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