Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Eps shows a ton of spread and isn't very menacing honeslty. I don't have member spaghetti plots but I would guess there are a lot of offshore tracks in the mix. Mslp panels show a lot of divergence d8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Dear God, the main thread has derailed miserably. Too many New England folk dreaming up worse case scenarios over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Eps shows a ton of spread and isn't very menacing honeslty. I don't have member spaghetti plots but I would guess there are a lot of offshore tracks in the mix. Mslp panels show a lot of divergence d8-10. Yes - it seems quite consolidated on track through 192: But then you can see a clear divide into two camps - FL vs EC/OTS beginning at hr 216, after which, I guess, it's off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Was just about to post. Pretty surprised at the mean. Just goes to show what we should already know...and that is "who knows?" Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Thanks DCT. Looks like a recurve is favored for sure on that loop. Had a hunch looking at the d10 mslp panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm definitely rooting for this to be a fish storm after what Harvey did. I like how the trend has been for passing just north of Hebert's Box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Another solution amongst long range chaos but the 18z gfs shows the phase/capture possibility again. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I'm definitely rooting for this to be a fish storm after what Harvey did. I like how the trend has been for passing just north of Hebert's Box. Agree. How I hate ec landfalling hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Agree. How I hate ec landfalling hurricanes. Unless they merge with an arctic front over your house of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A sizable jump north in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Unless they merge with an arctic front over your house of course Ahhh, to be in western PA &MD during Sandy. Pure Jeb heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 As soon as that trough started tilting negative, you knew where this was going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think it would be very difficult for this country to handle Harvey's historic run with potentially a sub 930mb EC strike. Not to mention the rest of the season... We got through '05. We'll get through this. Comes with the territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Sick run incoming me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: As soon as that trough started tilting negative, you knew where this was going. Yea, but track jumped north well before that. Definitely been a trend towards favoring a recurve today in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: As soon as that trough started tilting negative, you knew where this was going. It doesn't exist yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18z is probably the most expensive run yet. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 NYC direct hit at 216 in the 940s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: It doesn't exist yet. Well yeah, I'm just talking the run in general. No one knows where this storm is going to head to, but the possibilities of a landfall are certainly within the realm of possibility. A lot has to right though. Ingredients are there, but will Mother Nature mix them is anyone's guess. Looking forward to ensemble packages. They'll shed more light on the long range beyond D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, but track jumped north well before that. Definitely been a trend towards favoring a recurve today in general. Strength of system down south of 20N was a major factor this run. 10+ mb stronger and can bully the southern edge of the ridge. This can help it gain more latitude from the get go. In other news, New York would have some swaying skyscrapers if this run verified lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 New York City is destroyed now move this run southwest about 200 miles and we're golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What a run. The GFS is pretty wildly swinging run to run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 NYC would survive that - but goodbye Fire Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Lol in 24 hours this thing has smashed into DC, NYC and Boston direct. Fun 10 days ahead of us. Could be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm going with Gloria and Igor as my top matches to Irma. Only 10 days to go, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 My guess is that over half the ensembles will be OTS, based on the more northern track early on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm going with Gloria and Igor as my top matches to Irma. Only 10 days to go, lol. Gloria with 2017 ocean temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The most concerning thing to me is that every single op and many ensembles are unwavering in deepening this and keeping it strong. Intensity forecasting leaves a lot to be desired, but you've got your head in the sand if you don't perk up a little seeing run after run of an incredibly deep storm in the southwest Atlantic. I think someone mentioned that early strengthening can force a re-curve. (Was that you?) I'd think that idea would also go with a stronger system generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The most concerning thing to me is that every single op and many ensembles are unwavering in deepening this and keeping it strong. Intensity forecasting leaves a lot to be desired, but you've got your head in the sand if you don't perk up a little seeing run after run of an incredibly deep storm in the southwest Atlantic. This could actually save the conus from a direct hit. I know you know this but it's worth discussing. If I was running a book I would be hedging no landfall. Without the capture the gfs was a total OTS solution and it was evident fairly early on with the jump north in track. On the other hand....the fact that ops are being fairly consistent with having some sort of weakness or closed ull in the east, the door remains open for a less common track. Weren't many phase/captures on the eps from what I could see. The intricate timing and feature placement required for a phase or even a westward tug won't be accurately modeled for 5 days at the absolute earliest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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