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George BM

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Isn't kph kilometers per hour? Pretty substantial difference.

You are correct... my bad.  I saw kph and fligured it was knots, nice catch

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23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Shiny new map :lol:  Member P002 850mb winds in knots... hope Wes doesn't get blown away with the winds at 130-140 knots... yes, I know surface winds would probably be half of what the 850 level shows... landfall on this ensemble member was in NE SC and Irma is moving due north

06zGEFSmemberP002forIrma850mbwinds8-30-17.thumb.png.30822bf2dc4b8e34992cad265d812e75.png

Using the correct calculations now... since its in kilometers per hour and not knots... 130-140 kilometers per hour would be 85-90 mph winds at the 850 level... so I would surmise winds of 60-70 mph taking into account its at 850 to surface

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yoda - that is kph not knots. Not as bad as you are thinking but still very tropical. 

 *weenie hat on* GEFS has a bias for underestimating mid level and surface winds *weeenie hat off*

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Since this is a long track, I'm already preparing for the moral police to show up and tell us how bad we are for a week or so.  

Please God no. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 *weenie hat on* GEFS has a bias for underestimating mid level and surface winds *weeenie hat off*

Picking the worst case ensemble and figuring out precisely what wind speeds are is just about the most weenie thing imaginable.

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16 minutes ago, yoda said:

P009 actually is much worse... or better lol.  Would be once in a lifetime event... at 1:00 AM on Sept 13, Irma is at 952mb over RAH and at 1:00 PM on September 13th, Irma is in Buffalo at 966mb... 170kilometers per hour 850mb level winds over Wes and 150 kilometers per hour over DCA :lmao:

06zGEFSmemberP009forIrma850mbwinds8-30-17.thumb.png.2651ae51fc3a83317222ac4cfff6ab03.png

105mph 850mb winds over Wes... 93mph 850mb winds over DCA... probably surmise that with N movement of Irma... 850mb winds would probably be close to 100mph over DCA at its peak... 15% reduction is 85 mph (that's what it would be, no?)

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Picking the worst case ensemble and figuring out precisely what wind speeds are is just about the most weenie thing imaginable.

And if someone didn't do it then I would be seriously disappointed in this sub. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Please God no. 

I'm generally a decade long lurker, but couldn't agree more. Perhaps we can preemptively set up a "morality thread" and keep this one clean for those of us who can compartmentalize...

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I very much want to hop on the bus on this one. My mind is telling me not to go down that road though. 

It's the best chance at a cape verde impacting the US this year. No question there. And by best chance I mean we have a minute fractional chance right now. I don't know about you but that's all in odds if I've ever seen them. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Picking the worst case ensemble and figuring out precisely what wind speeds are is just about the most weenie thing imaginable.

Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical.

I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical.

I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. 

I mean I understand... just there is nothing really else to discuss tropics-wise for the next week and cherry picking an ensemble member that smokes us is kind of the only thing we can do until we get closer -- which won't be till next week sometime when we can get more serious about the track of Irma - probably when she reaches the Windward Islands

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical.

I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. 

There's only so much serious discussion that could be done at this range anyhow. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical.

I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. 

My imaginary line to cease sillyness and begin seriousness is if/when the storm gets to the bahamas and the cone is pointed in the general direction of the US somewhere. Pretty much gives us a week of free for all. lol

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11 minutes ago, yoda said:

I mean I understand... just there is nothing really else to discuss tropics-wise for the next week and cherry picking an ensemble member that smokes us is kind of the only thing we can do until we get closer -- which won't be till next week sometime when we can get more serious about the track of Irma - probably when she reaches the Windward Islands

I was taking it seriously when it was just a butterfly flapping it's wings over Australia. 

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Woah... TS Irma set at 50mph winds... 1004mb... and movement W at 13 mph

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

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Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center.  ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt.  Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days.  However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM.  At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11.  A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle.  Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 16.4N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 16.7N  31.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 17.3N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.9N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.2N  37.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.7N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 17.7N  46.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 17.0N  51.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Did anyone else used to take blank hurricane tracking maps, make up various ultimate hurricane scenarios, and plot them on the map? My fantasy storm for this area has never come close to fruition. I had a Hugo-esque Category 4 with an Isabel-sized wind field make landfall near Nags Head moving NNW at 25 mph and pass just to the west of IAD as a category 2. DCA records 89/g107 south wind. PEPCO experiences 95% outage. The flash flooding from 6" of rain is followed by Fran-type Potomac River flooding. I even made up a newscast script for this event. 

But when I did something similar with making up snowstorms (drawing snow total bands on a blank map), my ultimate fantasy season was actually surpassed by 09/10. :o

 

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20 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Did anyone else used to take blank hurricane tracking maps, make up various ultimate hurricane scenarios, and plot them on the map? My fantasy storm for this area has never come close to fruition. I had a Hugo-esque Category 4 with an Isabel-sized wind field make landfall near Nags Head moving NNW at 25 mph and pass just to the west of IAD as a category 2. DCA records 89/g107 south wind. PEPCO experiences 95% outage. The flash flooding from 6" of rain is followed by Fran-type Potomac River flooding. I even made up a newscast script for this event. 

But when I did something similar with making up snowstorms (drawing snow total bands on a blank map), my ultimate fantasy season was actually surpassed by 09/10. :o

 

I used to have a computer program that allowed me to do it, complete with basic UL features. :weenie: 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS on board with fairly quick strengthening in the mid range. Much stronger than any previous run through d5. 

Yup, 960mb by hr 132 and moving due West

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GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. 

Mid 930s at 192

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. 

935mb @192.

gfs_mslp_pwata_atl_33.png

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