Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

@losetoa6

I just posted in the main thread about the gefs. Something is very wrong with the ens and lack of spread. It's been happening all season. If the op jumps east then every single ens member will do the same. 

I don't trust the gefs with storm tracks at all. I expect the same type of lack of spread to happen this winter. Something in the last upgrade seems to have screwed up the gefs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Totally agree...it gets really tightly clustered way out in time and plays hopscotch to the op.

Exactly. Which completely undermines the value of ensembles. Unless the op and ens are lasered in on the correct solution....and that hasn't happened a single time this season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

One would think that with the 11am Nate track, we would get some good rain and maybe some severe risk...

you would think that but what I have learned living here is we can get screwed a number of ways...but most often when it seems like a lock..something I shall remember when the models take away my digital snow the day prior to the event...you know its coming

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS track would make it appear that we could see some severe Monday afternoon... SLP is in E WV at 102 and then moves over the LWX CWA at 108... looks like a total of 1-2 inches of rain for most... maybe 3" in the spots that get some training like around I-81 corridor

12z GGEM is west of the GFS... most precip is west of I-81... total precip is 0.5-1" for most of LWX CWA... 2-3" west of the Apps

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not too worried about qpf output on the globals yet. We really won't know what Nate is capable of doing until the storm tracks through the gulf. GFS came in weak and not very organized and still drops 1-3 through the region. Just a guess but I doubt Nate ends up verifying as weak sauce before LF. It may weaken as it approaches the coast but I would guess that a cat 2 at some point during the trek is pretty reasonable. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good afternoon disco re Nate from LWX:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Frontal boundary from the northwest will stall in the vicinity on
Sunday. This will result in greater cloud cover, somewhat cooler
(but still above normal) temps, and a better chance of showers.
Thunderstorms could also develop but given it is autumn now,
instability is not as great as it would be earlier in the year.
Monday through Tuesday, the big question remains exactly where does
Nate go. A relatively minor track deviation (this far out) could
mean a lot. A track just south could result in a heavier period of
rain, while a track just north could result in severe weather being
the biggest concern (though training tropical downpours could still
occur). Given the recent long dry spell, it seems like severe
weather would be more likely than flooding, but again this is
dependent on track. At this point it is best not to focus on exact
details which are far from becoming clear. In fact, the GFS and
ECMWF, while more similar with their track forecasts in the
direction Nate will take, remain far off in timing, with 12-24 hour
discrepancies by Tuesday. Bottom line, Nate is a threat of some
sort, but the exact nature is yet to be determined.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not too worried about qpf output on the globals yet. We really won't know what Nate is capable of doing until the storm tracks through the gulf. GFS came in weak and not very organized and still drops 1-3 through the region. Just a guess but I doubt Nate ends up verifying as weak sauce before LF. It may weaken as it approaches the coast but I would guess that a cat 2 at some point during the trek is pretty reasonable. 

The tornado risk could be respectable if the COC passes just to our west.  1" - 3" of rain with a few mall wedges would be okay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

000
WTNT32 KNHC 091438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 39.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 39.9 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast is expected later today.  A motion toward
the east-northeast and east is forecast to occur later tonight,
followed by a turn toward the east-southeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2017ing...

 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 141438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...
...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 26.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

.......

Forecaster Avila
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...