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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS Hurricane Maria recurves... Jose stays around through Day 8 lol... looks to cause the WAR to weaken so that Maria escapes

Seems to be a closer miss than the previous run though, doesn't it? And how likely is this scenario? I'm hearing folks expressing doubt that Jose could stay there that long, but...

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does seem sorta fitting that Jose ruins things for Maria after teasing the F out of us. If it goes down like that I'm personally retiring Jose

This may be one of those "wasn't meant to be" kind of scenarios...Disappointing for weather geeks, yet a relief for others. For us, it would be especislly disappointing if Maria gets totally juiced and have Cat 3 or 4 potential...only to get booted out by a system that brings a few sprinkles. Mercy...

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12z GFS showing a solution with Jose out of the way so that's interesting. However, when you look at upper level winds it's still going to be a battle for anything more than a close scrape

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png

 

 

gfs_uv250_us_33.png

 

 

I'm sure there are a number of members on the ens track plots that re-curve that have nothing to do with Jose remnants. 

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure the GFS will go all the way but it's looking like a close approach from Maria at 12z.

Nearing NC landfall at 216 at 928mb.  Seems like it could be acceptable for our area...

Edit - turns sharp right and scrapes the OBX and...

Edit 2 - scoots OTS.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just one of many solutions. It's still a really close call. I think I still favor OTS.

Pretty much agree. We need something to force the storm west. I really can't find anything on the ens to make that argument. Once the storm gets up to NC latitude, all the panels I see show an easy boot east. Much can change of course and not making any type of call whatsoever but until we see a viable way for the storm to pass near or west of of us @ our latitude it's hard to get excited. 

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It will be hard to resolve Maria without knowing what happens to Jose.  I think the two most likely scenarios are that Jose sticks around long enough to weaken the ridge and let Maria make an early turn, or that Jose gets out of the way (or dies) and Maria makes landfall around the Carolinas.  If the latter, we may seem some remnants up here.  The third-most likely scenario (if for no other reason than the Euro has shown it more than once) is that Maria Fujiwharas Jose right back at us.  That might be the most fun to track.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really incredible series of storms that have RI'd. By my count: 

7 of the last 8 named storms have become hurricanes
4 of the last 6 hurricanes have become majors
All 4 majors have become at least Cat 4s

The law of averages ended the major landfall drought more abruptly than our snow drought a few years ago!

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The models keep Maria fairly small up to Puerto Rico so that 36-hr average track error is going to be very important for the island. What has been the case is that Maria has stayed on the southern side of much of the modeling in the short-term (within 24 hours).

We booked our Thanksgiving trip to San Juan months ago; we go at least twice a year and are planning on buying property there and have friends who live in San Juan and in the southeast corner of the island. I keep on hoping that the small size will prevent the worst case scenario, with a near miss instead of the head-on hit.

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22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really incredible series of storms that have RI'd. By my count: 

7 of the last 8 named storms have become hurricanes
4 of the last 6 hurricanes have become majors
All 4 majors have become at least Cat 4s

As people have mentioned elsewhere, there's certainly the chance that Jose gets the bump up to category 5 in the post-analysis. This has been the most high end windspeed <1 month period I can think of. Even 2005 had a break between Dennis/Emily and Katrina. 

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