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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, George BM said:

Notice how much long range models seem to like teasing our neck of the woods, especially this season?

It's a combination of a fairly active season and favorable upper level pattern in general for landfalls. Irma wasn't that far off from sig impacts here. If the WAR backed off a little and the trip to cuba was replaced with a trip through the bahamas it could have been a much different outcome. 

When you have an active season + decent UL patterns, having shotgun blast solutions from ops that include our yard is typical. Just like with winter storms, it all has to come together just right and the predictability of that beyond 4-5 days during the tracking exercise is pretty complicated and prone to many false alarms.

The storm showing up after Jose has a legitimate chance at affecting us and pretty much anyone else along the coast and florida. Of course it has a legitimate chance at never getting organized or remaining well offshore too. lol

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Well that escalated quickly... from the 8pm TWO: 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph.  Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Lee, which will break the streak of consecutive hurricanes and majors. Lee is a POS that isn't going to do anything. 

However, 96L is going to be designated as PTC 15 at 11am, meaning watches are probably going up for the islands simultaneously. 

I know it is really early, but I am as bullish on the track and intensity of future Maria as any storm this season. That doesn't mean it becomes another super cane like Irma lol, but everything is there for it to be a threat to the US and become a major hurricane barring interaction with Hispaniola. 

I say that because of Jose. The second loop that was hinted at by some guidance looks less likely, and if Jose is able to exit stage right, that should allow the ridging to rebuild, forcing future Maria westward toward the US. Whether it makes landfall is obviously so far away as to be ridiculous to talk about, but you look at that environment and that potential UL pattern and that almost screams trouble IMO. 

vis_lalo-animated.gif

As for the rest of the season...I've been front and center about how strongly I believed the peak of the season would be active. I don't see it slowing down much as we head into the second peak of October. SSTs and TCHP remain high. 

2017252at.jpg.aaaa95305c3ff5b4b59f4333025e0b71.jpg2017252atd26.png.7e2287ef8829724f939a7cfbb8b1a10a.png

Not only that, we see a big reduction in SAL (as expected) and shear doesn't look awfully high--though we need to look at shear as things pop to see what the potential is. 

splitE.thumb.jpg.ad8373294fa1096dc28c81bd0ba4f02a.jpg

Finally--let's talk about ENSO again! 

Eric Blake (from the NHC) was harping on it this morning and he's absolutely right--with a possible Nina forming and a favorable environment right now, we have to watch the NW Caribbean, SW Atlantic and GOM for things to pop as we get more low level vorticity in the climo favored areas late in the season. 

With a ridging dominant pattern that looks to continue in the Atlantic, stronger troughs as we head into fall, and a hot environment out in the basin, I have goosebumps a little. We've already had two historic US landfalls, four consecutive majors, and 5 hurricanes. This is a strong season and it's not ready to back down yet...

That's a scary thought with recent happenings.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Luckily there is pretty good consensus for Jose to cruise across the natl and get out of the way. Pretty sure we'll fail a different way than that. 

There's a pretty good consensus among ensemble members, but the UKMET op has had Jose looping back for two runs in a row, and several of the Ukie ensemble members show it as well.  Todays 12z Ukie and Euro are similar through 7 days. 

qqIHOQj.gif

I'm kind of hoping the Euro is right.  It would be fun to watch.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Asked this in the other thread:

So this scenario would essentially eliminate the Maria threat? (And how likely is it?) Would be kind of funny if Jose has hung around for the purpose of steering Maria away, lol

I haven't looked through ensembles to see different ways this could play out, but I think the short answer is that it's too early to tell.  The Euro has any potential interaction about 8 days away, so it's probably too early to make any conclusions about what would happen when (or if) they interact.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the
last advisory and has continued to expand in size.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum
flight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt.  The
crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall.  Based on these
data and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt.  Maria
is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it
will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles.  Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered
for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in
the NHC track forecast.  The updated official forecast is slightly
south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the
update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is
right along the previous track after 36 hours.  This solution is
between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA
solution.

The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,
which could make it a prime candidate for significant
intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.
Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but
nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and
potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours.  If that occurs,
some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall
replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as
a major hurricane on days 3 through 5.  Because of Maria's small
size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to
the HWRF and HCCA models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near major
hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands
over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and
rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been
issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will
likely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday.

2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane
watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
could be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday.  Interests
in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.8N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.3N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.1N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.8N  61.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 17.8N  65.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 19.0N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 21.0N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Re Hurricane Maria:

12z GGEM -- Landfall in S SC at 204-210... decent impacts from Maria possible 222-240 as Maria moves basically N/NNE

12z GFS -- recurve out to sea... Jose still in SNE area around Days 5-9 and might cause WAR to weaken so Maria says goodbye out to sea

 

12z NAVGEM -- Maria about to make landfall around NC/SC border at 180 (run ends there)

12z EURO -- Um, interesting... dances around with Jose and then retrogrades him back in the MA at 168... Maria offshore through 240, but def threatening for New England at its 240 position

 

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft received
just after the previous advisory indicated that Maria's maximum
sustained winds had increased to 70 kt.  Since that time, a large
central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C has formed,
and data from the radar on Martinique shows 60-70 percent of an
eyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity
estimates have increased to 75 kt, and that is the initial
intensity.

The initial motion is 290/11.  The subtropical ridge to the north
is expected to steer Maria generally west-northwestward for the
next 72 h, with some decrease in the forward speed.  After that
time, the guidance suggests that the hurricane should turn more
toward the northwest as it approaches the western end of the ridge.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast
track, which is similar to the previous track, is in best overall
agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus and ECMWF models.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly
shear.  However, all indications are that the shear should diminish
during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid
strengthening.  The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.  Late in
the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear should cause some weakening.  The new intensity
forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall
agreement with the HWRF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria continues to strengthen and is expected to be at major
hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands
over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and
rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been
issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will
likely be extended northward and westward on Monday.

2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane
watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
could be extended to Puerto Rico early Monday.  Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 14.2N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 96H  22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All this means is that instead of a straight forward track with Maria, we're going to have crap on the models for the next week :axe: 

I'm far less bullish as long as Jose lingers. 

It means if Jose is around, Maria will get booted out to sea

I do like some of the models at the very end sending Jose, or whats left of Jose, right towards us

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