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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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I am not too worried about the bias.... Even if you add 25 MB at landfall.. It would still be an historic event....

 

also... The big ones lock in early.. This really looks to be one of those cases.. At this point I am fairly confident that someone on the east coast will be impacted.

But it is tropical... So who knows.

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No one it talking about the pressure gradient we could be looking at here with Irma when she makes landfall. If the HP is as strong as depicted to the north of Irma as she moves up, she could still miss us by a decent amount and the winds would still be lots of beers worthy! 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said:

Check out Irma on visible. Clearly moving due west right now and it is not a wobble. Well north of the NHC projected path. This is likely to have some effect down the line on actual path. Put on the lat/lon function and NHC track plot on this page.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html

IRMA.PNG

Funny how we're looking at day 7+ maps for a storm that's 30 miles north of the 6 hr forecast.

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It has probably been stated in this thread, but I wonder if the intensity problem on the GFS has an impact on the track.  A more intense modeled system may not be affected as much by the steering currents.

The GEFS aren't as intense and most show similar tracks.

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