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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has been flipping so much lately

GEFS has been consistent on an east coast threat

We shall see

We're closing in time now so accuracy is improving. Eps has had back to back runs with a lot of recurves. Cmc ens the same. I'm just saying that until all 3 global ens look similar I'm not going to hug anything. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're closing in time now so accuracy is improving. Eps has had back to back runs with a lot of recurves. Cmc ens the same. I'm just saying that until all 3 global ens look similar I'm not going to hug anything. 

That said the CMC isn't exactly the crown jewel of accuracy ;)

I think you just need to give the masses what they want and say DC crush job. 

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That said the CMC isn't exactly the crown jewel of accuracy ;)

I think you just need to give the masses what they want and say DC crush job. 

Ha! Of course I'm interested in the gefs but it's an outlier for now and never ignore climo in the med or long range. Our area is still in the game as are all locations on the EC and a whole bunch of fishies in the Atl. That's all I got. 

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Really hadn't realized how consistent the GEFS has been over the last few days until looking just now. For those that believe in model trends all I can say is the GEFS is trending the right way on several of the key features. We have seen the Atlantic ridging slowly adjust south and west putting it in a better position to steer Irma west into the coast. The Midwest trough has progressively sharpened putting it in a better position to cut off. And the ridging to the west of the trough has strengthened and the key aspect here is we are now seeing it riding over top of the trough which would also help to induce a cutoff.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What is also interesting to me is that this run is slower... At this time last run it made its near-Phili landfall. Might landfall in the same place again, just 12 hours off.

closer to us imo

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