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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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Day 7 differences are pretty glaring...EPS want nothing to do with the closed ULL.  I'm certainly more of a winter weather weenie than tropical...if this was a snowstorm we were tracking I'd be concerned that the GEFS are out to lunch.  EPS has a long way to go to show what the GEFS are portraying.  Correct me if i'm wrong but the low heights over/south of Greenland seem to me the deciding factor in getting our ULL to close off that far south...shoving the WAR south allowing it to connect over the top? 

EPS

eps_z500a_noram_29.thumb.png.2982db2032c3eb299806c89690de28d0.png

06z GEFS

gefs_z500a_noram_29.thumb.png.cb6edaeacd59fd31827e7900536e9cd2.png

 

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11 minutes ago, schinz said:

The other day the Euro had a track into the Gulf....I am leaning on the consistency of the upper level features shown by the GFS at this point.  

I'm thinking we get a nasty tease from Irma while it scoots OTS.  I want what the GFS is showing, but how many times have we been in this camp where the EURO schools the GFS on tropical systems.

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25 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So are we at the point yet where we are taking this seriously for our area, rather than some funny model run?

 

Just curious, for those who have lived here muuuuch longer than I, what was the last major tropical system to hit the area?

Get it under 3 days, if not 2, then I will start taking it seriously. Until then I am just enjoying the show. Helps pass the time until we start tracking our first snow.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm thinking we get a nasty tease from Irma while it scoots OTS.  I want what the GFS is showing, but how many times have we been in this camp where the EURO schools the GFS on tropical systems.

 

I hope you correct....I have a house in Brigantine, NJ., a barrier island just North of Atlantic City, 1/2 block to the beach....scary solutions for places like that!!

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Lol at some of you. Just a couple days ago the euro was more south and heading into the gulf while the GFS was coastal. Guess which caved?  And now you are back to saying the euro will school the GFS again

 

neither one has a total lock on this just yet and it's dumb to say otherwise. Ensembles are still too jumpy

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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Lol at some of you. Just a couple days ago the euro was more south and heading into the gulf while the GFS was coastal. Guess which caved?  And now you are back to saying the euro will school the GFS again

 

neither one has a total lock on this just yet and it's dumb to say otherwise. Ensembles are still too jumpy

Stop being so rational.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How I see this. We're at ~D9. 

7-10 days out: storm speculation. Look at the guidance for UL, environment, and intensity trends. Not much stock in ops or ens. Not staying up for model runs. 
4-6 days out: serious conversation. Increasing confidence in ens for 500h pattern while watching the ops a bit more for deterministic output. Staying up if trends look good.   
1-3 days out: game time. Still a chance for a trend away from impact, but all IN. No sleep

 

Big truth with that last sentence if that is the case.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with @WxWatcher007. The Canadian ens and Eps strongly favor a recurve. I won't think it's a real threat until all 3 global ens look similar. 

The gefs is too tight for the range were dealing with the last 3 runs. That's either remarkable skill or something ain't right. Take your pick. I'll go with the latter. 

You don't think it's strange the model everyone is saying should be used to discredit the GFS right now because it is OTS was the GOM solution 72 hours ago?

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with @WxWatcher007. The Canadian ens and Eps strongly favor a recurve. I won't think it's a real threat until all 3 global ens look similar. 

The gefs is too tight for the range were dealing with the last 3 runs. That's either remarkable skill or something ain't right. Take your pick. I'll go with the latter. 

Eps has been flipping so much lately

GEFS has been consistent on an east coast threat

We shall see

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