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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The 500mb mean is impressive at a long lead. No wonder there are so many hits.

 

gefs_z500_noram_29.thumb.png.1aaa2f256bcdcdf45a2fd26597473ec1.png

We rarely get a shot at a big tropical event here. The upper air pattern may actually be able to pull it off. Only 9 days to go! Inside of 10 days is an important benchmark and we're still in the game! Lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We rarely get a shot at a big tropical event here. The upper air pattern may actually be able to pull it off. Only 9 days to go! Inside of 10 days is an important benchmark and we're still in the game! Lol

For sure. I'm keeping any expectations tempered but man, this is about as crazy as it gets right now with the look of the mean this far out. It certainly makes you wonder. That graphic is day 7 btw, so it's creeping into the beyond intrigued waters. Btw, the control is basically your dream run haha

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

For sure. I'm keeping any expectations tempered but man, this is about as crazy as it gets right now with the look of the mean this far out. It certainly makes you wonder. That graphic is day 7 btw, so it's creeping into the beyond intrigued waters. Btw, the control is basically your dream run haha

What's the control show?

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16 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm sorry guys. Moved to the mid-atlantic, killed snow, brought a category 4 hurricane.

Pretty sure me moving to the area from Seattle with hopes and dreams of mega blizzards and sustained snowcover and cold killed winter. I'll thank you for this.

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1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Basically a cane screaming in from Atlantic that rides over IAD. Significant wind in the eastern quadrant. Would be an all timer verbatim

I am praying very fervently to all of the weather gods for such an event. I WANT THAT WITH ALL MY HEART! I am now in total love with climate change and I am cheering it on with all of my heart!

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Couple of quick comments from last nights run. Anyone else notice the Hurricane that pops up 3-4 days later off the SE coast after Irma has left the scene? GFS has now shown it 3 of the last 4 runs. Still impressed with how deep the models want to drop the trough so early in the season. When a model continues to move back to a certain solution in the general pattern you have to question if the pattern itself argues for that solution. We have seen this several times where the GFS has moved away from the idea of a cutoff low @500 mb to our west only to move back to it in future runs. Euro has thrown out a couple of cutoffs as well and on its other runs we have seen some small hints of the possibility. 

Looks like fun times ahead.

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