BTRWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This could actually save the conus from a direct hit. I know you know this but it's worth discussing. If I was running a book I would be hedging no landfall. Without the capture the gfs was a total OTS solution and it was evident fairly early on with the jump north in track. On the other hand....the fact that ops are being fairly consistent with having some sort of weakness or closed ull in the east, the door remains open for a less common track. Weren't many phase/captures on the eps from what I could see. The intricate timing and feature placement required for a phase or even a westward tug won't be accurately modeled for 5 days at the absolute earliest though. That's more like the Bob I don't really know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here's the last frame before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said: Gloria with 2017 ocean temperatures. I'm mainly referring to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Definitely agree. I'm still solidly at 30% landfall odds. I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha I'm right there with you Bob. I've watched these things for years, and, though not 100%, these seem to follow a pattern: actual position ends up slightly north of predicted after a day or two, the cone keeps moving slightly north, and before you know it, they're screaming north. Seems the really strong ones (early strong as well), jus say " I'M GOING NORTH" lol. I have no idea why, just seems like they do. Of course there are exceptions. Hugo is the one that stands out for me, and of course Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 So how about the ensemble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha 18z GEFS members show like 2 OTS tracks lol... and they are all over FL to SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Remember yesterday when I said everyone from NO to Canada would get some model love before this is all said and done? Congrats Manhattan! Tune in at ~12:30am tonight to see which wx weenies hit the jackpot next! Pat I would like to buy a vowel. Wheel of misfortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The ad on my screen is LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So how about the ensemble... This is an amazing diversion from earlier. The windshield wiping continues. This is the type of track (Center line) that could realistically bring in a cat 4 or so into the coast. But when was the last time GA took it on the chin?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What ever is forcing the landfall on the 18z seems to be more pronounced that at 12z. The hurricane seems to be oriented closer to the coast throughout its northward trek than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Gefs obviously ordered shots of tequila for happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Crazy seeing such a large number of SC and GA tracks. Those are very unusual and there's a while bunch of them. Gefs has a lot of consensus for a very strong WAR. Also a lot of phasing going on with the trough. Didn't see this GEFS run coming at all. More than just a little skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'll post this so we can have a record to compare at this time tomorrow (if I can remember with all the college football going on). I'm really interested in seeing how the 24 and 36 hour positions compare with what actually occurs Well, I'm trying to post a picture...there's a problem, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 39.1W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 39.1W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 39.1W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I remember a few days ago Bob Chill was weenie hoping for an entry up the Chesapeake. How does he do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: I think someone mentioned that early strengthening can force a re-curve. (Was that you?) I'd think that idea would also go with a stronger system generally. I know I've read that in here before that in general a stronger cape verde storm is more likely to recurve earlier as its affected by different steering currents than a weaker storm would be, or something to that effect. I don't really understand the meteorology of it but someone can set me straight if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Forget hurricanes - I want a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha I was thinking the same thing. I am going to the Outer Banks next weekend. Hoping for an out to see track. Would be pretty cool to see the surf with out to sea track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Those 18z member panels @losetoa6 are great. I had a hunch that there were a lot of tugs and phases and the track cluster wasn't just a byproduct of a strong WAR. The implication of the gefs evolutions is pretty crazy. Sustained hurricane force winds and a massive wind field 100's of miles inland...woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just to check off the Miami destruction option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Just to check off the Miami destruction option. what is this from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Philadelphia Snow said: what is this from https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa-east/m12_sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html You can play around with the parameters to the left of the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa-east/m12_sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html You can play around with the parameters to the left of the map btw weird glitch I assume you noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Sorry @olafminesaw, I like Member 12 at Sat, Sept 11th at 1 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 For fun of course... but damn this would be fun if Member 12 of the 18z GEFS were right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Bob would get his wish with that ensemble member of having the "eye" pass over him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 57 minutes ago, yoda said: Bob would get his wish with that ensemble member of having the "eye" pass over him Now we're talkin. I could get a quick dog walk in between devastation and destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: For fun of course... but damn this would be fun if Member 12 of the 18z GEFS were right: I wonder how long DC would lose power for in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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