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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

could y'all imagine if this was winter?!

Hah, well we'd all be yelling at eachother about analyzing any operational or ensemble at 200 hours out.  However, the scale and scope of this is so much higher than a snowstorm, so I have little problem with the media and meteorologists in general mentioning the possibility.

 

As depicted, i'm surprised the GFS did not slam this thing into South Carolina or Wallops.  That ridge is pretty freakin stout. 

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1 minute ago, nflwxman said:

Hah, well we'd all be yelling at eachother about analyzing any operational or ensemble at 200 hours out.  However, this scale and scope of this is so much higher than a snowstorm, so I have little problem with the media and meteorologists and general mentioning the possibility.

Oh i know. the suicides as we watch this beautiful storm pass us and nail SNE

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The best way to keep long range op runs in perspective is to treat them as nothing more important than a single ens member. The 12z op was similar to several ens members. 6z GEFS was the most bullish for a US landfall than any previous ens run. That's why I'm really interested in the 12z GEFS. If it trends again towards a higher likelihood of a US impact then the plot thickens. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Just to make sure I am seeing/learning this correctly... the 12z GEFS h5 map posted above is more threatening than the 06z run. yes?  Or about the same?

Threatening over a much larger area for sure. FL-ME is in the game but the twist is a significant shift of ens members putting FL under the gun. It's not just a couple. Spaghetti tracks should be fun to look at. They're going to scare a lot of people. 

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