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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Guarantee you that you are more well versed then many in there, given the fact that I'm posting there. I respect your decision though.

 

Ha! Appreciate it but I'm no doubt a tropical hack in my mind anyways. 

I think the bigger issue isn't what happens at h5 down the line. The mid range model war on track is far more important. GFS/GEFS hugs the north track every single run in the mid and long range. Seems like some sort of bias. Might have to do with intensity. I'm not really sure. But I'm pretty skeptical about what happens through hr120 on the GFS. If that's wrong then whatever happens after is REALLY wrong. 

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For fun with the CMC.... when I look at the MSLP panels and h5 @ 240, it looks like track will follow the weakness between lp near the lakes and weak hp draped over top to the north. Since these features are moving, it looks like Irma would track NW before turning N then NE. H5 shows a bit of a tug to the west but that probably wouldn't hold on long enough for LF south of our latitude. Would get real close to the EC in our area and maybe a landfall in NY or SNE. Just having fun speculating on what the panels look like. 

 

gem_mslpa_atl_41.png

 

gem_z500a_atl_41.png

 

ETA: after watching the loop it probably favors a scraper and no landfall but again, just having fun just cuz. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is tightly clustered through 180 but then shoots a shotgun off from there. Still favors an offshore track and oddly has no support for the euro op and EPS. Quite the war right now. 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_31.png

 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_48.png

 

 

Long range NCEP guidance has been atrocious this year!

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