WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Just now, H2O said: The amount of water from the sky is already ridiculous Read somewhere that the forecasted amount of rain equals the amount of water in Lake Tahoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 I wish I had a dollar ... heck, a dime .. for every time Jeff Piotrowski mentions the word "debris." I've never really watched him before. It's a strange variant of performance art. EDIT: And I'm not denigrating it at all. He's giving a play-by-play of power lines swaying in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 I think the future Irma will be a bit stronger than some think. Harvey should stay well SW and the environment in the SW Atlantic looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 With all eyes on Rockport and Corpus Christi, I wonder how they're faring in Port Lavaca. Should be a sizable storm surge in a town of more than 10,000 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you're not watching this feed right now... https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVRbYXWWKB Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you're not watching this feed right now... https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVRbYXWWKB Hopefully he's ok, that building collapse was scary as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Nam anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Looks like his feed died right when the eyewall hit. Reports on twitter is that they're ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Just now, smokeybandit said: Looks like his feed died right when the eyewall hit. Reports on twitter is that they're ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nam being nam teasing us with 92L Nam was right with Harvey Lets see the other models jump on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam was right with Harvey Lets see the other models jump on board It's worth noting that while the 18z GFS kept the low much further east, it was still trying to give us a decent rainfall early next week due to strong easterly flow to the north of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Jeff's back. He and the blue shed are OK. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1BdxYWPqQvAGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Why can't we get a real model to give us some action Still plenty of time for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you think there's any chance we get a strong enough trough/ridge combo to bring 92L closer to the region? Not necessarily an up the bay track lol, but closer to get impacts toward the beaches? Not sure why I've been so intrigued by this, but some of the models have been hinting at stronger ridging to the east that has had the result (I think) of keeping 92L closer to the SE coast before getting kicked. At 84 hours out, it's certainly possible that the NAM is right, but for now it seems to be the only model that backs the upper flow sufficiently ahead of that digging midwest trough to pull that Atlantic low back in towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, high risk said: At 84 hours out, it's certainly possible that the NAM is right, but for now it seems to be the only model that backs the upper flow sufficiently ahead of that digging midwest trough to pull that Atlantic low back in towards the coast. GGEM has come pretty close last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: GGEM has come pretty close last two runs. fair point, but it's also much faster. A lot to sort out here.... and as noted earlier, even the GFS without getting the low anywhere near the mid-Atlantic coast is still trying to set up a rain event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: When trying to identify backing upper flow on the guidance, what specifically am I looking for? Definitely not hanging my hat on the NAM or Canadian though there have been scattered runs of the GFS and Euro bringing the low closer to the coast--at least in the SE. Backing in this case means that the mid-level steering flow has more of a southerly component (where the other solutions would have more of a westerly or southwesterly component). If you compare the 00z NAM f78 vs. the 18z GFS v84 at 500 mb, the differences are pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, high risk said: fair point, but it's also much faster. A lot to sort out here.... and as noted earlier, even the GFS without getting the low anywhere near the mid-Atlantic coast is still trying to set up a rain event for us. GFS looks like a step in the right direction. LP not well organized, but hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Kicked near the outer banks too. Idk...we'll see what happens as it develops but I'm not holding my breath. Still watching though. I guess rain and breezes would be a win but certainly a waste of potential if it played out like this. Late night? As that Mid-West trough has been depicted now and for awhile I don't hold out much hope seeing 92L (Irma?) come much farther north then OBX. The southwesterly flow in front of it just will not allow it. But we still have roughly 4 days or so to sort things out. Besides watching for the obvious stronger SE Atlantic ridging, I will be keeping an eye on how models handle that trough in the coming days. If the trough doesn't drop as far south as now depicted we will probably see a corresponding northward movement of 92 before it gets shunted out to sea. Ditto, if the trough slows down somewhat. One other thing is to keep an eye on the tilt of the trough. Right now it is positive but if we were to see more of a neutral look I think we would also see an adjustment northward as we would get a more southerly component to the flow. Anyway you slice it though IMO the chances of us seeing anything of substance in our region (besides the far southern coastal regions) are pretty slim without seeing somewhat major changes on what is being modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Followed the main Tropical page a little over the last couple of days. I was very impressed by some of the very knowledgeable Mets and non-Mets within the Harvey thread. It has been so many years since I have really followed tropical it was an eye opener to find out how far the science has advanced and correspondingly how little I know. I have to give them a hand. On the other hand. How many times do we have to hear, 'Death, Doom, Destruction', 'Everyone is going to die', 'Evacuate Texas', 'Biblical rainfall', 'Politicians and Officials are clueless and suck' and so on and so on? For every good/great post there were 10, if not 20, trash heap posts. And this was after Mods had already axed the worst of the worst. Also, why do people feel the need to attack someone and their reasoned opinion for the sole fact it runs counter to their desire for the ultimate storm? If you can counter their reasoning then do so, if not then just STFU and cease with the endless posts attacking them. Sorry to be venting but I just get so tired of spending quite a bit of time tracking the weather waiting for these rare events only to have all these jackholes pop out of the woodwork every time, completely trashing the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 That's why I stick to my own area disco. I just don't have the patience any more to read every thought nugget some dummy feels they need to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 We are very boring locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 I'm at the point weather-wise that I might travel to see some decent gusts. I just hope we get some source of excitement between now and our first snow threat. Bored as hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 It's still early, but has there ever been a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. without a fatality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Weak and strung out on the Euro, but more rain for the area. Still west of 0z Nice trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Weak and strung out on the Euro, but more rain for the area. Still west of 0z Nice trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Coastal hugger on the NAM until NC. Little bit slower. 500's look better on the NAM. Trough isn't as deep and it is closer to a neutral tilt then the 12z. But it's the NAM and at range at that so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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