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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Weak low from what I can see right off the southern NC coast. Not much happening with it yet on the run. 

i don't think it will do much.  By the time it pops the Bermuda high to the SE of 92L pops back up and will funnel it OTS as the GL low and leftover Harvey spin around.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Better that way than too far east though right? I'm rooting for a tropical moisture plume getting engaged with a ML front. 

there is still a chance for something after 192 as the base of that trough gets down to the gulf

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The  12Z Euro is terrorizing on so many ways.  I could obviously see worse cases for the USA like a Cat 4/5 stall over Miami or New Orleans  but this is a very bad situation.  News media will be playing big catch up.  Probably talking about a Cat 2 hurricane hitting Texas coast.  The stall or re-emergence over the Gulf and the slow ENE trek is the scariest part...  

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Heh, Day 8 looks a little fun up here. Low slides east and gives us rain and breezy conditions verbatim. Fantasy range, but the idea makes sense in the long term. That was one hell of a Euro run lol. 

Nice lateral. lol. This is what I'm rooting for...LOL

Remnant track east of the MS river with a mega plume of deep tropical moisture for 24-48 hours. Training rains and embedded severe the whole time. Then the UL center tracks overhead. Synoptic rains, winds, and severe as it passes to the coast. That's not too much to ask is it? If it is then this...

Perfect track with the remnants running the apps. Trop force gusts and torrential rains as the center boogies through. 

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BTW, everyone-- here's a good one to research for our area:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Cedar_Keys_hurricane

...as in how did a 960-mb hurricane hitting the Gulf coast of FL manage to bring hurricane-force gusts up here with significant property damage and storm surge? Hazel-type extratropical transition? 

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11 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

BTW, everyone-- here's a good one to research for our area:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Cedar_Keys_hurricane

...as in how did a 960-mb hurricane hitting the Gulf coast of FL manage to bring hurricane-force gusts up here with significant property damage and storm surge? Hazel-type extratropical transition? 

Looks like real fast movement... and wow in DC (link in post above)

In Washington, D.C., the storm's approach late on September 29 was marked by nearly continuous cloud to cloud lightning.[6] Five-minute sustained southerly winds reached 66 mph (106 km/h),[7] and peak gusts approached 100 mph (160 km/h); barometric pressure fell to 987 hPa (29.15 inHg). At the time, it was the worst storm to ever affect the city.[27][72] The winds brought down signs, awnings, trees, and brick walls, while unroofing homes, toppling church steeples, and shattering windows.[72] Electric, telegraph, and telephone utilities were lost.[15] The destruction was not uniform, as poorly built structures often survived unscathed in the vicinity of much stronger buildings that incurred significant damage.[76] It was deduced that the strongest gusts occurred in narrow "streaks".[27] Approximately 5,000 trees were destroyed in the city,[28] many of them being snapped 10 to 15 ft (3.0 to 4.6 m) above the ground.[7] Some of the worst damage occurred in cemeteries, such as the United States Soldiers' and Airmen's Home National Cemetery, where 300 trees were prostrated. In a few cases, the fallen trees unearthed underlying coffins.[77]

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Needless to say Harvey is doing very well today. Hope people down there are prepared. As for us up here... Long range but, assuming that the track is right, I hope to see at least severe level wind gusts which has a little bit more than a 0% chance of happening :(. But still, if models do latch on to Harvey-Harv's remnants coming this way it will be interesting enough to track..... I guess........ Aaaaah you know I'll be tracking it anyways.

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like real fast movement... and wow in DC (link in post above)

 

 

Also in VA and MD:

Montgomery County was hit particularly hard; the storm wrecked an amusement park in Bethesda, forcing it to permanently close, while Gaithersburg was "most disastrously wrecked". 

 

--Coincidentally, this is also how I would describe my state on Friday nights in college.

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7 minutes ago, George BM said:

Needless to say Harvey is doing very well today. Hope people down there are prepared. As for us up here... Long range but, assuming that the track is right, I hope to see at least severe level wind gusts which has a little bit more than a 0% chance of happening :(. But still, if models do latch on to Harvey-Harv's remnants coming this way it will be interesting enough to track..... I guess........ Aaaaah you know I'll be tracking it anyways.

 

I look at it like this...yes, we get the once a decade (or whatever) tropical that hits the EC and tracks up here. Most end up east of us so it's pretty boring. But EC hits are not very common with impacts through the cities and west. Gulf storms have a better history at giving us impacts through the cities and westward. Not as exciting as an NC landfall or something like that but Gulf storms can be pretty fun here if you have proper expectations. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I look at it like this...yes, we get the once a decade (or whatever) tropical that hits the EC and tracks up here. Most end up east of us so it's pretty boring. But EC hits are not very common with impacts through the cities and west. Gulf storms have a better history at giving us impacts through the cities and westward. Not as exciting as an NC landfall or something like that but Gulf storms can be pretty fun here if you have proper expectations. 

Very true. But I'm just an extreme wind weenie :lol:

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I'd love to see Harvey get ingested into the westerlies then come here and move very slowly. Floods are very fun.

I am THE Quintessential flood weenie!

Then a week later, we get to do it all over again! There's only one thing better than a life threatening devastating flood.

TWO OF THEM! Kind of like Connie and Diane! Now that was two ladies that loved to par-tay!

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 242045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
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