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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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The # of people posting the long range GFS output from yesterdays 18z run was ridiculous on Twitter. 

I've seen every solution from no storm to a US hit. They should password protect the day 10-15 GFS output and only give access to people deemed worthy of the information :lol:

The issue is - even if a WxNerd posts the output jokingly on Twitter - a lay person will see it and assume it's a forecast for a major US hurricane landfall blahhh

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

giphy.gif

I'm awake, but not interested yet.

The strong southern flow off the African coast that was forcing and shearing everything south is now relaxing in the longer range. So if correct maybe we are seeing the beginnings of African season open up. So irregardless of whether this storm is real or not I think we will have some things to track shortly anyway. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Aside from the fact that the MDR is fire this early in the season, I'm not excited about this one. Not even following the models right now.

Glad I got that first fail in early. It's good being anchored to the ground. 

Though I think there will be things to track shortly I really don't like the over all look on the models for any potential east coast impact. As h2o mentioned we need to see the Atlantic ridgeing build westward and even then with the mean trough situated in the east any potential threat will most likely to be swept out to sea.

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Not at a computer, but I'm not worried about SAL killing the season. It's true that SAL can put a cap (literally and figuratively) on MDR tropical activity, but:

1) SAL plume penetration into the Atlantic tends to be transient and focused, creating windows for development 

2) While dust can make it all the way to North America, I don't think that's often or strong, keeping the door open for central and home brew development

3) IIRC, SAL becomes less prominent as the season progresses, hence CV season 

4) SAL can certainly inhibit development, but a robust wave that has enough inner core organization can...over time...mix out that dry and stable air and intensify *if* other environmental conditions aren't too hostile 

Just a tool in the toolbox, but there are efforts out there to forecast SAL

http://www.weather.gov/sju/dss_sal



SAL isn't as dense as it usually is, plus African waves clear some of it out

Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk

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Long range ens guidance including seasonals like the cansips and cfs have been strongly advertising a fairly stout ridge centered over the Intermountain west and down stream troughing centered in the great Lakes region.

This is a good July pattern for no heat waves so I've liked that. However, it's a recurve and/or tease pattern for tropical in the east. The gefs is teasing right now down the line but if ens consensus is right then the chances of getting the center of any tropical system to pass to our west isn't going to come easy. 

We're probably going to have several possible storms to track over the next 2-3 weeks but I'm not enthused at our prospects of impact. 

 

With that being said, ens upper level height patterns won't be static like the panels show so any storm could take advantage of transient ridging so there's always a chance. Overall it looks like height patterns won't be friendly in general though. 

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Really fascinating battle setting up between the operational GFS and its parallel version.      The GFS has been advertising that African wave to track westward across the Atlantic and then explosively deepen.    Some of the runs make U.S. landfall, others tease the east coast, and some are out to sea, but every cycle of the GFS over the past few days has a monster storm somewhere near the U.S. east coast in the long range.      On the other hand, the parallel wants nothing to do with this storm, and every run has wiped out the disturbance as it comes west.     The para will become the ops in just over a week.

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11 hours ago, high risk said:

Really fascinating battle setting up between the operational GFS and its parallel version.      The GFS has been advertising that African wave to track westward across the Atlantic and then explosively deepen.    Some of the runs make U.S. landfall, others tease the east coast, and some are out to sea, but every cycle of the GFS over the past few days has a monster storm somewhere near the U.S. east coast in the long range.      On the other hand, the parallel wants nothing to do with this storm, and every run has wiped out the disturbance as it comes west.     The para will become the ops in just over a week.

00z GFS taken literally (I know you shouldn't, but still) was a dangerous run if the wave were to develop and track like that... 06z GFS sends it to S TX/N MX as it gets demolished in the Carribean running through DR and Cuba... but yes, it is a very interesting battle between the two of them

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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS taken literally (I know you shouldn't, but still) was a dangerous run if the wave were to develop and track like that... 06z GFS sends it to S TX/N MX as it gets demolished in the Carribean running through DR and Cuba... but yes, it is a very interesting battle between the two of them

Also consider that the Euro, Canadian (usually cane happy) are pretty much not seeing this. Wouldn't put too much stock into the OP GFS at this point - it loves to spin up fantasy canes. 

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