Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 We went to Chincoteague from FRI -> SUN this weekend following a conference I had in OC, MD. Frankly OC, MD is too commercialized for my liking. If you like crowded beaches and noisy people I guess that's your thing. But, Chincoteague is just the opposite being a sleepy shore town and filled with salt splashed bunagloes and a few hotels on the island. We fell in love with the place and plan on getting a townhome or something on the island one day...just superb. Plus, NASA Wallops Island is just down the road so you can see the rocket launches if you time your trip right. Amazing place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-mows-lawn-canada-huge-131823842.html LOL, well, why would you be mowing during a storm? It COULD be real, I saw lots of areas that looked like this crossing the plains in last two weeks with decent looking lawns surrounded by basically nothing, but the fence looks a little strange with the leaning boards on one side and straight on end/corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 3 hours ago, wxdude64 said: LOL, well, why would you be mowing during a storm? It COULD be real, I saw lots of areas that looked like this crossing the plains in last two weeks with decent looking lawns surrounded by basically nothing, but the fence looks a little strange with the leaning boards on one side and straight on end/corner. it's a real picture http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40155229 Theunis Wessels was "fully aware" of the twister but "wasn't worried at all", his wife Cecilia, who took the photo, told the BBC. She said the tornado was about 2km (1.25 miles) from their house in Three Hills, Alberta - much further away than it appeared in the photo. The storm was quickly gone, she added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 10 hours ago, smokeybandit said: https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-mows-lawn-canada-huge-131823842.html That is getting way too much false publicity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 Some things don't change. Scary irony here! https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/6/5/1030-am-the-most-important-weather-forecast-of-all-time-d-day-june-6-1944 "Based on their knowledge of English Channel weather and observations, the British forecasters predicted stormy weather would indeed arrive on June 5th. The American meteorologists, relying on a differing forecasting method based on historic weather maps, instead believed that a wedge of high pressure would deflect the advancing storm front and provide clear, sunny skies over the English Channel. Captain Stagg had to make the final call and he sided with his fellow British colleagues and recommended a postponement. Captain Stagg predicted good prospects for a favorable break on the 6th of June and for heavy bombers to be able to fly during the preceding night. As a result, General Eisenhower decided to postpone the operation for 24 hours to June 6th." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: That is getting way too much false publicity! True, but it's a real picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 The "What the What?!" Storm of 2018 Forecaster: George BM Most of this winter's snow will come from one storm in late February. This will be from the first named tropical system of the 2018 hurricane season, Alberto. IAD will get 103.4" of snow from Alberto from February 25-27th, 2018. Since water temperatures off the southeast coast will be well above average, a subtropical storm will develop from an intense upper level low that cuts off from the jet stream. It will briefly attain fully tropical characteristics making it Hurricane Alberto with 90 mph max sustained winds. This will then move slowly up the coast. However with the NAO strongly negative by more than 5 sigma, the blocking high to the NNE of it will prevent the center of the storm from continuing north of the mid-Atlantic coastline and into the Northeastern US. At the same time a very strong and near-record cold upper level trough will move to the SE US coastline causing Alberto to become extra-tropical. However as that happens the trough will inject a significant amount of energy into the storm and allow it to undergo explosive deepening to an incredible 917mb at the surface right off the southern Delmarva coastline. The pressure gradient will cause sustained winds of 70-90 mph w/gusts of 115+ mph across the DC region. Now DCA will end up with "only" 53.3" of snow from this storm due to a lot of rain mixing in on the 26th. The rain snow line will set up right along the I-95 corridor with several feet of snow to the west, especially in the mountains, and much less snow to the east of DC. Western areas will see snowfall rates of 5”-8"+ per hour during the most intense part of the storm. Lots of people will report not being able to see anything beyond their windows due to the intensity of the snow and wind. There will also be a good bit of lightning with this storm due to the incredible dynamics of the atmosphere. Storm totals will be in the range of 65"-130"+ west of DC with the high snowfall amounts being in the mountains. Meanwhile there will generally be 2-4 feet of snow east of I-95 and less snow on the Delmarva (1-2 feet). Still though, those eastern areas will end up with 12”-18”+ of rain with some areas exceeding 20” of rain from this storm before the changeover to snow. This will lead to catastrophic flooding in many communities in those regions. The wind from this system will knock down countless trees and powerlines and cause extensive structural damage even destroying some buildings across the whole region leaving more than 6.7 million people without power, the largest number of customers without power in this region since record keeping began. Due to the very strong 1060mb surface high pressure over the Northeast US and Atlantic Canada, there will be a very tight pressure gradient bringing sustained easterly winds of 90-115 mph w/gusts of 140+ mph along the coastline from Maryland to Long Island for as long as 36 to 48 hours. The result of this will be a great storm surge of 30-40+ feet which will destroy every boardwalk along the beaches of that length of coastline, not to mention storm surge waters making it far inland from the coast. At the end this storm will rake up a pricey $567.2 billion in damage making it the most costly weather event in US history. So in conclusion, I believe that we will see a boatload of snow this winter. The vast majority of it will just fall during this historic storm in late February. Now of course there is still a lot of time to prepare for this big storm as it is more than 8 months away. Government agencies should work to bring in the most advanced snow removal and powerline repair equipment from out of the area and civilians should go snow shopping for salt, shovels, snow-blowers, water, canned food, etc. now, or better yet just plan on leaving the area before the storm hits. Do not wait until weather models start picking up on it and local news agencies start reporting on it a mere week out from the event or you might end up not being prepared for the hardships to come from being buried and without power for weeks to perhaps months on end. Storm Reports Local Snow Totals: IAD: 103.4” DCA: 53.3” BWI: 65.7” Local Max Wind Gusts: IAD: 112 mph DCA: 119 mph BWI: 120 mph Max Wind Gusts at East Coast cities: Washington DC: 119 mph Philadelphia: 125 mph New York City: 147 mph Boston: 111 mph Yeah I was bored lol... ...Bantering! Okay I’ll show myself the way out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, H2O said: it could happen I saw a flock of pigs heading north on the way in to work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 My favorite airline. Baconair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 18 hours ago, George BM said: The "What the What?!" Storm of 2018 Forecaster: George BM Most of this winter's snow will come from one storm in late February. This will be from the first named tropical system of the 2018 hurricane season, Alberto. IAD will get 103.4" of snow from Alberto from February 25-27th, 2018. Since water temperatures off the southeast coast will be well above average, a subtropical storm will develop from an intense upper level low that cuts off from the jet stream. It will briefly attain fully tropical characteristics making it Hurricane Alberto with 90 mph max sustained winds. This will then move slowly up the coast. However with the NAO strongly negative by more than 5 sigma, the blocking high to the NNE of it will prevent the center of the storm from continuing north of the mid-Atlantic coastline and into the Northeastern US. At the same time a very strong and near-record cold upper level trough will move to the SE US coastline causing Alberto to become extra-tropical. However as that happens the trough will inject a significant amount of energy into the storm and allow it to undergo explosive deepening to an incredible 917mb at the surface right off the southern Delmarva coastline. The pressure gradient will cause sustained winds of 70-90 mph w/gusts of 115+ mph across the DC region. Now DCA will end up with "only" 53.3" of snow from this storm due to a lot of rain mixing in on the 26th. The rain snow line will set up right along the I-95 corridor with several feet of snow to the west, especially in the mountains, and much less snow to the east of DC. Western areas will see snowfall rates of 5”-8"+ per hour during the most intense part of the storm. Lots of people will report not being able to see anything beyond their windows due to the intensity of the snow and wind. There will also be a good bit of lightning with this storm due to the incredible dynamics of the atmosphere. Storm totals will be in the range of 65"-130"+ west of DC with the high snowfall amounts being in the mountains. Meanwhile there will generally be 2-4 feet of snow east of I-95 and less snow on the Delmarva (1-2 feet). Still though, those eastern areas will end up with 12”-18”+ of rain with some areas exceeding 20” of rain from this storm before the changeover to snow. This will lead to catastrophic flooding in many communities in those regions. The wind from this system will knock down countless trees and powerlines and cause extensive structural damage even destroying some buildings across the whole region leaving more than 6.7 million people without power, the largest number of customers without power in this region since record keeping began. Due to the very strong 1060mb surface high pressure over the Northeast US and Atlantic Canada, there will be a very tight pressure gradient bringing sustained easterly winds of 90-115 mph w/gusts of 140+ mph along the coastline from Maryland to Long Island for as long as 36 to 48 hours. The result of this will be a great storm surge of 30-40+ feet which will destroy every boardwalk along the beaches of that length of coastline, not to mention storm surge waters making it far inland from the coast. At the end this storm will rake up a pricey $567.2 billion in damage making it the most costly weather event in US history. So in conclusion, I believe that we will see a boatload of snow this winter. The vast majority of it will just fall during this historic storm in late February. Now of course there is still a lot of time to prepare for this big storm as it is more than 8 months away. Government agencies should work to bring in the most advanced snow removal and powerline repair equipment from out of the area and civilians should go snow shopping for salt, shovels, snow-blowers, water, canned food, etc. now, or better yet just plan on leaving the area before the storm hits. Do not wait until weather models start picking up on it and local news agencies start reporting on it a mere week out from the event or you might end up not being prepared for the hardships to come from being buried and without power for weeks to perhaps months on end. Storm Reports Local Snow Totals: IAD: 103.4” DCA: 53.3” BWI: 65.7” Local Max Wind Gusts: IAD: 112 mph DCA: 119 mph BWI: 120 mph Max Wind Gusts at East Coast cities: Washington DC: 119 mph Philadelphia: 125 mph New York City: 147 mph Boston: 111 mph Yeah I was bored lol... ...Bantering! Okay I’ll show myself the way out now. I know one VERY happy snow shovel-er that would enjoy that immensely lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 9 hours ago, wxdude64 said: I know one VERY happy snow shovel-er that would enjoy that immensely lol. I'd be in snow heaven bliss for weeks and weeks. The drifts would be memorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 On June 9, 2017 at 0:30 AM, George BM said: ... and civilians should go snow shopping for salt, shovels, snow-blowers, water, canned food, etc. now, ... no mention of milk, bread, TP, or booze. Everyone thought this was real until then. (Well no; not really) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Hey Arlington folks - down your way at the Arlington Draft House to see a show - first time at this venue - it's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 On 6/9/2017 at 7:02 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I swear I lost it when I saw your post this morning. All I could imagine was you leaving your house reading George's post and getting stuck in I-95 traffic, only to look up and see a flock of pigs flying in formation. "The...hell...are those...PIGS?!?!?" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Still thinking this will be the year that the tropics will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 On 6/10/2017 at 6:33 PM, North Balti Zen said: Hey Arlington folks - down your way at the Arlington Draft House to see a show - first time at this venue - it's pretty cool. Its a really cool place to catch stand up shows, although the table service can be lacking at times. I saw Tom Green there last year and he basically shouted "unleash the fury" every time one of his jokes bombed lol. They also do regular movie nights and show old classics - always a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 These hot summer days make me miss the free air conditioning I used to enjoy when I lived a block from the Chicago lakefront. It could be in the 90s inland, but I'd be enjoying 70s in my neighborhood. Not that there's always a lake breeze, but it happens enough to make summers there much more bearable than D.C. for someone like me who hates heat. I took this screen capture 2 years ago today while in Chicago for my soon-to-be brother-in-law's bachelor party weekend. We were outside in Wrigleyville where it was in the low 70s while the suburbs were on their way up to around 90 that day. Classic summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 20z Update June 13, 2017 A HISTORIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. (Tornado: 60% (hatched); Wind: EXTREME; Hail: 60% (hatched)) An intense derecho is currently moving through the central Appalachian Mountain ranges. This derecho has a history of producing 95-120+mph wind gusts in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia doing extensive structural damage. There have also been several strong, long-track tornadoes with this system. 19z soundings from IAD showed excessive MLCAPE values of 7700 J/kg with SBCAPE of 9200 J/kg. As intense as these storms have been, they may become EVEN MORE INTENSE as they move out of the mountains into the most unstable airmass in its path (moving east at 80-85kts). Strong surface low of 967mb is approaching NW Virginia and the WV panhandle is causing very strong surface southerly winds east of the mountains to back to SSE/SE. This is causing 0-1km SRH values to increase to as high as 1500+m2/s2. Surface dewpoints in the upper 70’s/lower 80’s have allowed the LCL to remain sufficiently low despite surface temperatures in the upper 90’s. So with those SRH and CAPE values and LCL heights, any supercells will likely continue producing strong to violent long-track tornadoes. Otherwise effective bulk shear on the order of 90-110+kts and extremely steep mid-level lapse rates of 9.5-9.8C/km will allow storms to produce giant hail of 5”+ in diameter and particularly intense wind gusts of 105+kts. Numerous tornadoes, some strong and long-track, also continue to be a threat with the main line of storms. Forecaster: George BM Verification in the temperature department. Very good for being 43 days out. Winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 The Infamous Summer and Drought of 2017 is now beginning. Many temperature records will be broken over the next 4-5 months. Fields will get so brown that they will be able to be seen from orbit by late July. Every storm system will break up over Dale City/Washington DC from now on into fall. The infamous DC Split will be common. The Appalachians will HOG all of the rain this summer and will be green as an emerald while tumbleweeds blow all over Dale City and Washington DC and local fields will be brown as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Thanksgiving Day will be in the upper 80s.. Climate change is far worse than what the models suggest. Today's backdoor front passed us by dry as a popcorn fart. The rest of this week and weekend will be as dry as the Sahara. My lawn is already turning brown and will not revive until May 2018. We will all utterly forget what rain even looks like, except for the Appalachians which will get all of our rain for the next 6 months. Then they will hog all of the sparse snow the following couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Jebman said: The Infamous Summer and Drought of 2017 is now beginning. Many temperature records will be broken over the next 4-5 months. Fields will get so brown that they will be able to be seen from orbit by late July. Every storm system will break up over Dale City/Washington DC from now on into fall. The infamous DC Split will be common. The Appalachians will HOG all of the rain this summer and will be green as an emerald while tumbleweeds blow all over Dale City and Washington DC and local fields will be brown as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Thanksgiving Day will be in the upper 80s.. Climate change is far worse than what the models suggest. Today's backdoor front passed us by dry as a popcorn fart. The rest of this week and weekend will be as dry as the Sahara. My lawn is already turning brown and will not revive until May 2018. We will all utterly forget what rain even looks like, except for the Appalachians which will get all of our rain for the next 6 months. Then they will hog all of the sparse snow the following couple of months. At least we have Jose coming in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 The rocket at Wallops is never going to get launched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 I'd like to congratulate the National Weather Service on an excellent forecast for Dale City for June 14. NWS had us in high categorical pops for rain and thunderstorms for June 14. I had super high hopes for rain!!!!! Not a drop. The high topped out at 93 with 73 dews too. NWS was right about the backdoor front too - the temp was two whole degrees cooler today! I almost needed a winter coat to cope with the chilly air - and the dewpoints were GREATER than they were before the backdoor front went through. WOW! Excellent job, NWS. Great accurate forecast for June 14 for Dale City. I'm STILL waitin' on my 80 percent chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 15 hours ago, yoda said: The rocket at Wallops is never going to get launched It's now scheduled for Friday. I've been outside waiting each night it has been scheduled. My guess is tomorrow it will also get scrubbed as I'll be out there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 2 hours ago, yoda said: Quick aside and for giggles and fun... and since I was bored... check out this sounding from N IL on the 12z NAM at hr 63 Squiggles and lines and numbers...and SQUIGGLES!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Houston TX WSO running a heat-type headline on their page with a forecast hi of 93. (Avg is 92) Embarrassing. http://www.weather.gov/hgx/ Sorry, having trouble editing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know this is going to sound strange, but this is a place for strange people. I SO wish I could chase. I like how 109 is sunny, but 113 is hot. I lived in Mesa for a winter and spring back in the 90's and the "sunniest" that I experienced living there was 104 one day in early May. But everyone is right when they say it's a dry heat. Really dry and really hot, like being in an oven. You can have it! Oh, and on a trip to Death Valley a few years ago, our car thermometer read 114, but they are always a little high and it was also after sunset, so it wasn't the same. In my mind, Arizona is the king of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Reall wish I could have chased. They're talking about all time heat potential out there. Oh well. Maybe I'll chase tropical this year Maybe this will be the year to "chase" to OCMD. (though I hope not!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know this is going to sound strange, but this is a place for strange people. I SO wish I could chase. Go chase in the Imperial Valley of California near the Salton Sea. Crazy hot and crazy awesome place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Reall wish I could have chased. They're talking about all time heat potential out there. Oh well. Maybe I'll chase tropical this year Have I told you yet that you are sick and warped individual? Dealt with upper 120 temps years ago while skirting Death Valley and to be honest it was torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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