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June Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well I used the ensembles of the GFS and Euro and 500h rather than temp/temp anomalies for a reason. I don't even know what the op models are spitting out for next week. With that kind of 500 pattern on the ensembles, a legit shot at big heat seems possible. 

12z Tuesday below. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_32.png

 

 

Sure it's possible, but ensembles haven't been as friendly either as far as verification goes.

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sure. I'm not saying this verifies verbatim, but I'd find it hard to see a complete opposite h5 pattern occur. Strength of the ridging and ridge/trough orientation are always at play I think. Despite how rough a time the models have had, I still don't think we could ever toss all of them completely. 

Would a Russian hack change your mind? #banter

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Probably still good to trust the globals for this kind of storm, but I will note that that 06z NAM has an dramatic sensible weather difference between the resolutions.  The 12km NAM is a rainy, cold mess on Thursday with daytime temps struggling to 60.  The 3km NAM has a nice afternoon with highs in the 70s, at least for DC N&W.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Probably still good to trust the globals for this kind of storm, but I will note that that 06z NAM has an dramatic sensible weather difference between the resolutions.  The 12km NAM is a rainy, cold mess on Thursday with daytime temps struggling to 60.  The 3km NAM has a nice afternoon with highs in the 70s, at least for DC N&W.

A bit of convergence at 12z, the 12km is drier and mid-60s, while the 3km has the precip closer and stays near 70.

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Looks like some nice summer weather coming after a couple dreary days tomorrow/Thursday.

How would you like to be in Boston right now -- 2:30 pm ob is light rain, 46 degrees, wind gusting to 21 mph.  YUCK!

 

Sign me up!

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Looks like some nice summer weather coming after a couple dreary days tomorrow/Thursday.

How would you like to be in Boston right now -- 2:30 pm ob is light rain, 46 degrees, wind gusting to 21 mph.  YUCK!

 

Yeah, that's pretty awful for early June. Good grief.


Turned into a nice day here with the sun out now. Heading to the O's game tonight, looks like a great late spring evening.

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

06z GFS likes 90s from Sunday-Wed... looks like a backdoor front around on Thursday (76 near BWI and 90s near EZF)... 90s return for Fri-Sat

12z GFS not as hot... and Wed looks backdoorish with 70s as well as on Thursday... Friday back into the 90 or so.  LR h5 shows an interesting -2 SD height anomaly in the GOM by Day 10

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