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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That looks like our next chance to get near or over 90. The really long range stuff following the warm up settles into a +PDO/+AMO pattern during the second half of June. That is a ridge near the PAC NW and East Coast. Looks like the persistent trough that has been stuck over the NE this spring shifts west back  to the GL and Plains. So the current pattern will probably be the coolest relative to the means or departures for this month.

Hopefully that means we'll have our chances for thunderstorms with the upcoming pattern

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5 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Looks like three consecutive days with highs in the upper 50s on the 12z Euro for this week -- Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday -- overcast and upper 50s. That's pretty impressive.

Looks similar to May where we have a significant negative departure before the heat comes in...remains to be seen how long it lasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Looks like three consecutive days with highs in the upper 50s on the 12z Euro for this week -- Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday -- overcast and upper 50s. That's pretty impressive.

Could be one of the coolest starts to June in years. After a very cold May minus three blazing days mid month.

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50 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Highs in the 50s will be 2003 and 2009 like.  2003 has late month heat 2009 not so much at all.

Yeah, 2015 only had a few cool days in the 50's to start out, and then it stayed fairly mild for the rest of the month, despite finishing slightly BN.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Dirty warm up alert on the 0Z Euro as it leaves a piece of the UL stuck under the ridge next week. If that energy underneath verifies, then we won't be able to rival the heat experienced around May 18th when LGA hit 97.

render-atls04-98f536083ae965b31b0d04811be6f4c6-TCKgbG.png.c25775fcf77acb334458b7182a66f790.png

That has afternoon thunderstorm look too it

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Dirty warm up alert on the 0Z Euro as it leaves a piece of the UL stuck under the ridge next week. If that energy underneath verifies, then we won't be able to rival the heat experienced around May 18th when LGA hit 97.

render-atls04-98f536083ae965b31b0d04811be6f4c6-TCKgbG.png.c25775fcf77acb334458b7182a66f790.png

Thats fine..I'd be happy to get into the 80s for a stretch. Really  75+ and at least partly cloudy on a consistent basis would be a great accomplishment

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4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

That has afternoon thunderstorm look too it

 

57 minutes ago, dWave said:

Thats fine..I'd be happy to get into the 80s for a stretch. Really  75+ and at least partly cloudy on a consistent basis would be a great accomplishment

The 12z lost the piece of the UL and is all systems go for 90's heat next week.

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57 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it has this issue where it amplifies every wave after day 4

The EPS generally does a good job filtering out the spurious waves that the OP has. It's a pretty remarkable system where the ensembles correct the OP errors post 120. 

render-atls04-98f536083ae965b31b0d04811be6f4c6-y5TiYy.png.41a44d1bfa025bda44b75274535937ac.png

 

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I'm good with transitioning over to a more Summery pattern. It's been pretty remarkable how we've managed to nickle and dime ourselves to a well above average rainfall Spring without any major deluges or flooding. I can only recall one event with widespread 3"+ totals. We've also managed to walk the line with a lot of cutoff lows that dropped extreme rainfall to our South and Southwest. 

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm good with transitioning over to a more Summery pattern. It's been pretty remarkable how we've managed to nickle and dime ourselves to a well above average rainfall Spring without any major deluges or flooding. I can only recall one event with widespread 3"+ totals. We've also managed to walk the line with a lot of cutoff lows that dropped extreme rainfall to our South and Southwest. 

Almost 3 years since the last big 10 inch+ deluge event or month around the area. It was quite a run from June 2003 to August 2014.

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