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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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90's return later in the week as the WAR builds in and 850's surge to around +18C. Since we don't have a tropical system like Cindy in the mix, perhaps we'll get enough sun to make another run on 95 or greater. But if clouds and convection get in the way, then low 90's may do it. We''ll see...

 

ecmwf_t850_nyc_21.thumb.png.9327c9adf546ba470ccb167377af2ad9.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

90's return later in the week as the WAR builds in and 850's surge to around +18C. Since we don't have a tropical system like Cindy in the mix, perhaps we'll get enough sun to make another run on 95 or greater. But if clouds and convection get in the way, then low 90's may do it. We''ll see...

 

ecmwf_t850_nyc_21.thumb.png.9327c9adf546ba470ccb167377af2ad9.png

 

 

Looks like there is a good chance of storms beginning Friday (possibly Thursday night) and lasting through the weekend and possibly beyond.

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like there is a good chance of storms beginning Friday (possibly Thursday night) and lasting through the weekend and possibly beyond.

Yeah, we look to continue the theme of most weekends since mid-April featuring at least some measurable rainfall. 

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The 1981-2010 June monthly temperature and average...coolest to warmest...as of yesterday June is averaging 71.8...it could get greater than 72.0 by months end...this would put June 2017 in the average category...

67.5 in 2009...#1

68.3 in 2003

68.6 in 1982

68.6 in 1985

69.2 in 1998

70.3 in 1992

70.9 in 1997

71.0 in 2006

71.2 in 2004

71.3 in 2000

71.4 in 1996

71.4 in 2002

71.4 in 2007

71.6 in 1986

71.8 in 1988...#15

..................30 year average is 71.85...

71.8 in 1995

72.0 in 1989

72.1 in 1990

72.8 in 1987

72.9 in 2001

73.0 in 1981

73.2 in 1999

73.3 in 1993

73.4 in 1983

74.0 in 2005

74.0 in 2008

74.1 in 1991

74.5 in 1984

74.7 in 2010

75.2 in 1994...#30

......................

since 2010...

72.3 in 2011

71.0 in 2012

72.7 in 2013

72.5 in 2014

71.2 in 2015

72.3 in 2016

...................average 72.0...average since 1981 is 71.9...

71.8 as of 6/25

 

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The highest average temperature at LGA is between July 13-28. But the record highest temperature for each of the local stations is between 7/3 and 7/22.

EWR....7-22-11...108....NYC....7-9-36...106....LGA....7-3-66....107....JFK....7-3-66...104...BDR...7-22-11....103...ISP....7-3-66...104

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Newark New Jersey June average temperature...June average temperature is 73.0...I listed the ten year averages...the coolest is 1982 at 67.9...hottest is 77.8 in 1994...June could be close to average at Newark also...

1981-90.....72.83...

1991-00.....73.40

2001-10.....72.83

average.....73.02

...............................

2017..........72.4 as of 6/25...

2016..........72.9

2015..........72.0

2014..........72.8

2013..........73.3

2012..........72.4

2011..........74.5

2011-16.....73.0

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40 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Newark New Jersey June average temperature...June average temperature is 73.0...I listed the ten year averages...the coolest is 1982 at 67.9...hottest is 77.8 in 1994...June could be close to average at Newark also..

The current +0.8 at Newark is in line with June having the least top 10 warmth of the summer during the 2010's.

Newark top 10 warmest months on record during the 2010's:

Jun...2010...#2....2011....#10

Jul....2011...#1....2010....#3....2013...#5....2012...#6.....2016....#10

Aug..2016...#2....2015...#7.....2010...#10

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The current +0.8 at Newark is in line with June having the least top 10 warmth of the summer during the 2010's.

Jun...2010...#2....2011....#10

Jul....2011...#1....2010....#3....2013...#5....2012...#6.....2016....#10

Aug..2016...#2....2015...#7.....2010...#10

it's not really plus 0.8...it's closer to plus 0.3...noaa has 72.4 as the June mean...

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

what errors?...

The NCDC sets the 30 year average after they correct for any bad data in the raw numbers. That's why the 30 year means might not be an exact average of the 30 years of raw numbers. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The NCDC sets the 30 year average after they correct for any bad data in the raw numbers. That's why the 30 year means might not be an exact average of the 30 years of raw numbers.

don't they correct the monthly average as well?...

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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

don't they correct the monthly average as well?...

This paper describes how they do it.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/documentation/temperature-methodology.pdf

This report describes the methodology used to compute daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual normals for numerous temperature-related variables at about 7,500 weather stations for the 1981-2010 Normals period. A climate normal is typically defined as a 30-year average of an atmospheric quantity, such as maximum temperature. However, advanced statistical techniques are used to account for missing data values, inhomogeneities, station moves, etc. and therefore the normals presented here are much more than 30-year averages. This report offers a preliminary description of all procedures used to compute the new normals for temperature-related variables. We intend to submit a journal article on this matter which, if and when accepted, would replace this report as the authoritative reference for the computations done on temperature-related variables for the 1981-2010 Normals. For information regarding precipitation-related normals or hourly normals (including hourly temperature normals), please review the accompanying documentation.

As described by Menne and Williams (2009) and Menne et al. (2009), NCDC provides monthly temperature data values that have undergone robust quality control and standardization at the monthly timescale. For the 1981-2010 Normals, the approaches described in these papers were applied to monthly maximum and minimum temperature values that were in turn computed from GHCN-Daily values. Monthly values were computed for station-months for which no more than nine missing or suspect daily values were present in GHCN-Daily. The standardization procedures account for both documented and undocumented station moves and other changes in observing practices. Therefore, we give precedence to normals computed from monthly temperature data.

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