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June 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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odd presentation on the Euro-go 25 miles north or south and not much....

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with regard to that WAR, would bet next week is warmer than forecast just like this week....trough will end up weaker and further west as a result of the stronger WAR and we'll have a SW flow of milder air.

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

odd presentation on the Euro-go 25 miles north or south and not much....

-

with regard to that WAR, would bet next week is warmer than forecast just like this week....trough will end up weaker and further west as a result of the stronger WAR and we'll have a SW flow of milder air.

That presentation on the Euro is similar to what other models have been showing for days now. Looks like a narrow but heavy band of convection.

Even the UKMET has it, just further North.

PA_000-072_0000.gif

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

That presentation on the Euro is similar to what other models have been showing for days now. Looks like a narrow but heavy band of convection.

Even the UKMET has it, just further North.

PA_000-072_0000.gif

Agree-it just comes down to where it actually sets up....good luck figuring that out more than 12 hrs out....

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the same general trend with storm tracks adjusting further north due to the stronger WAR.

12Z Euro

594c1046d44f6_Screenshot2017-06-22at2_22_46PM.png.8955211dbe3bd1b9ec2bfe6461dbcb0f.png

 

That goes along with my idea that us getting hit with giant snowstorms are ones which would have gone out to sea in the 80s.

 

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I was looking at the regular NAM.  Wow at the HI RES!

It goes along with that concept of a narrow band of strong convection.

FWIW it has heavy early morning convection on Saturday which we always seem to over perform with.

594c2b56d0511.png

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44 minutes ago, Morris said:

79 low in LGA. 78 NYC

5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums.

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums.

BW, when did this thing start about the summer solstice being the longest day of the year?  It's actually not.  The summer solstice just signifies the largest angle of the sun relative to the horizon at solar soon (just like the winter solstice signifies the smallest.)  Afternoons continue to get longer as our latest sunset isn't until early July.  I remember Forky posted something about that last year.

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

5th minimum since Sunday at LGA of 70 degrees or higher. This week was a classic moist WAR pattern where lows overperform but highs underperform due to clouds and convection. The end result is more 70 degree minimums relative to 90+ maximums.

As our climate moves forward, we should be seeing more of these as the moisture content of our lower atmosphere is increasing (just look at how many 2+ inch rainfall events we have had and 20+ inch snowstorms.)  It's the only thing that could hold back 100+ highs from occurring more often in the future, but I don't see that doing so for long- we'll just see more 100+ days with higher humidity in the future.  Very wet, very hot, very humid summers in our future with the heat season extending outward to include April, May and September and very stagnant and slow moving features, both in the summer and the winter.

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