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June 2017 Discussion


Powerball

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Should manage the upper 80s here today, with less cloud debris locally, downsloping and what appears to be slightly warmer temps aloft.

DTW and DTW are both at 83*F as of 12pm.

Getting concerned about 90*F+ potential beyond Monday though. Latest models are insisting on the back door cold front making it down to the I-96 corridor by Tuesday and then stalling it out, which could initiate t'storms during peak heating as well.

I hope that happens, as for the temps today we will make a run at 90. It is already 85 at 1pm.

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Actually a few degrees cooler here in Ames than yesterday afternoon. The euro/GFS had hinted that we wouldn't mix out well and dew points are still in the mid 60s. 

 

Itll be interesting to see what happens Sunday and Monday here. Most places in Iowa haven't seen 100 degrees in at least a few years 

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Monday or Tuesday may have a shot to reach 95 at ORD.  The setup is sort of borderline though and if it had been wet recently, I'd say extremely unlikely, but it has dried out of course.

Tuesday may have a slightly higher starting point than Monday, but I'd probably lean toward Monday as having a sonewhat better shot than Tuesday.  Monday should still start out fairly warm and there is a bit stronger/more of a westerly wind component.  Should be a close one.

 

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89 here, which is the warmest so far of the day.  Dews are only in the upper 50s.  Dews in that moisture axis out to the west are generally in the mid 60s, which is about 5-7 degrees lower than most of the models had forecast.  

 

Scored another dust devil on the way home from work a little while ago.  Was surprised to see one with it being so windy (gusts well over 30mph).  Always thought they were more prevalent during lighter winds with less mixing of the superadiabatic layer.  Also, screw tornadoes, just gonna chase these things from now on lol.

 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like temps are underachieving more out west.  Moline is struggling to get to 90.

Yes.  Temps have come up well short of expected highs across Iowa this afternoon.  My NWS forecast had 95, but we only slowly rose through the 80s and maxed around 89.  Des Moines expected upper 90s, but only maxed around 91.

Mowing the neighbor's lawn this afternoon wasn't too bad with only upper 80s, moderate dew, and strong wind.  The lawns are browning quickly.  No doubt there will be an expansion of "abnormally dry" in part of Iowa when the drought monitor updates Thursday.

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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yes.  Temps have come up well short of expected highs across Iowa this afternoon.  My NWS forecast had 95, but we only slowly rose through the 80s and maxed around 89.  Des Moines expected upper 90s, but only maxed around 91.

Mowing the neighbor's lawn this afternoon wasn't too bad with only upper 80s, moderate dew, and strong wind.  The lawns are browning quickly.  No doubt there will be an expansion of "abnormally dry" in part of Iowa when the drought monitor updates Thursday.

Yeah, would not be surprised to see D0 expansion.  The 30 and 60 day deficits are starting to build, especially the past 30 with some areas less than 50% of average precip during that time.

30dPNormMRCC.png.f95d4a72b42181c8d9a135a8003534e7.png

 

60dPNormMRCC.png.a94ba1db6f3152b6f0f8a7766f6a0122.png

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

89 here, which is the warmest so far of the day.  Dews are only in the upper 50s.  Dews in that moisture axis out to the west are generally in the mid 60s, which is about 5-7 degrees lower than most of the models had forecast.  

 

Scored another dust devil on the way home from work a little while ago.  Was surprised to see one with it being so windy (gusts well over 30mph).  Always thought they were more prevalent during lighter winds with less mixing of the superadiabatic layer.  Also, screw tornadoes, just gonna chase these things from now on lol.

 

Nice! But I was expecting to hear round here during this one. :)

 

First 80 degree day, and it shot straight to the top!  89 was the high here with gusty down sloping winds near 40 mph. The positive was it kept the punishing BUGS away for a day! They seem on another level this year.... My legs are scabs, but I guess that's the price you pay to live in paradise, eh?

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, would not be surprised to see D0 expansion.  The 30 and 60 day deficits are starting to build, especially the past 30 with some areas less than 50% of average precip during that time.

 

 

 

Gotta hope the potential rain chances mid next week and around next weekend show up, but as I said yesterday, general chances for rain seem to improve going forward, which is nice because some is needed. Although 12 and 18z today have no been nearly as encouraging....

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15 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Nice! But I was expecting to hear round here during this one. :)

 

 

Haha, not this time.

Hit 90 here earlier.  Looks like MLI got 89'd lol.  Winds were more southerly than yesterday when winds were west-southwest.  Looking south in Missouri temps are all <90.  Think we may have had a very subtle hint of relative CAA from upstream.  Just enough to take a slight bite off the temp ascension.  That, and dews are a few degrees higher than yesterday.  Northeast IL had similar wind direction, but the air is still drier there and may have allowed for a slight advantage over areas just immediately to their west.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Someone put the soaker hose beneath the AWOS up in Angola Indiana lol.

That thing has been messed for months. The dews out this way, along with the breeze is making for very pleasant weather despite upper 80's highs.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI/DVN/CID all got 89'd today.  Guess we'll start a new streak tomorrow lol.

Underachieved a bit, only hitting 84. I don't see that 90-degree streak happening here starting tomorrow since TWC still has its fork stuck on it (forecast of 87 degrees) and now on Wednesday (forecast of 89 degrees) while NWS still wants tomorrow to be the beginning of the said streak. At this rate, TWC seems to want to go through this month without a 90-degree day. Better off waiting until at least next month, anyway.

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Ugh, got 89’ed again yesterday, second time in a week. Today has a higher starting point, already 78 degrees, so our string of 90’s start today. 

 

What was once forecasted to be a cooler than normal month, may turn out to be above- to much above for some. 

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DVN with an explanation of why temps underachieved yesterday.  Sounds like it was so windy at the surface the superadiabatic layer was overly mixed.

Max temps yesterday were several degrees cooler
than forecast. This probably occurred because the continual
mixing of 18-19 C air near 850mb to the sfc prevented the
formation of near sfc superadiabatic lapse rates that typically
develop when winds are lighter. Conditions look similar today.
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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN with an explanation of why temps underachieved yesterday.  Sounds like it was so windy at the surface the superadiabatic layer was overly mixed.


Max temps yesterday were several degrees cooler
than forecast. This probably occurred because the continual
mixing of 18-19 C air near 850mb to the sfc prevented the
formation of near sfc superadiabatic lapse rates that typically
develop when winds are lighter. Conditions look similar today.

So there was too much mixing. Interesting.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Area of clouds currently over the metro/ORD/MDW holding temps back a bit.

Still 82 as of 11am at ORD, with the cloud deck slowly eroding. Hopefully should still make it to 90, but probably not the low 90's it once looked like.

Right where it was at 11 am yesterday.

GGEM fairly bullish tomorrow.

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.0a87d760fee0a5e8afae763e9c92657f.png

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Two amazing observations a little earlier today on the other side of the planet.  

First is at Medina in Saudi Arabia.  Conditions were 115/1 making for a RH of just 2%.  You would shrivel up like a dried prune if you were out in those kind of conditions for very long. 

Second is at Jask in southern Iran, on a peninsula that jots out into the Gulf of Oman.  (It's on the right side of the pic where the dew is 90).  They reported 100/90, producing a heat index of 147!  Wind was blowing in off the extremely warm/shallow waters of the western portion of the GOO. 

Amazing how extreme the weather can be at times.

34hwh7o.jpg

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Two amazing observations a little earlier today on the other side of the planet.  

First is at Medina in Saudi Arabia.  Conditions were 115/1 making for a RH of just 2%.  You would shrivel up like a dried prune if you were out in those kind of conditions for very long. 

Second is at Jask in southern Iran, on a peninsula that jots out into the Gulf of Oman.  (It's on the right side of the pic where the dew is 90).  They reported 100/90, producing a heat index of 147!  Wind was blowing in off the extremely warm/shallow waters of the western portion of the GOO. 

Amazing how extreme the weather can be at times.

34hwh7o.jpg

The rapidly changing conditions over relatively short distances are really apparent.

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