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Severe risk May 24th NC/SC/GA/FL


janetjanet998

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Thought this deserved a thread of its own

Some breaks in the clouds across the warm sector..as low strengthens to around 993mb winds fields will increase

Enhanced risk over northern FL and eastern GA and NC...10% TOR probs and N FL and I think TOR probs may ne needed to be increased further north later too(5% now)

 

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0755 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
FL/GA/SC...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN  
VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES TO OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION  
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING  
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND TORNADOES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  
   
..FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST STATES  
  
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER  
MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. A PRECEDING VORT MAX WILL SPREAD  
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/MIDDLE OH VALLEY, WHILE AN  
ADDITIONAL TROUGH-BASED-EMBEDDED VORT MAX SPREADS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD  
ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARD GA/CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT.  
  
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH, A CONSIDERABLE  
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS  
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTH GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PIEDMONT/COASTAL  
AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE TO 40-55 KT FOR  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 850 MB (OR 1-2 KM AGL) WHILE 700 MB/3-KM  
AGL WINDS INCREASE TO 50+ KT.  
  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS  
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST  
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE MOST  
CONCENTRATED AND SEMI-FOCUSED SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST ACROSS  
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST GA  
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALREADY EXISTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  
  
IN TERMS OF AN INITIAL EARLY-DAY RISK, AS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED  
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT BOUNDARY.  
ADDITIONAL SOMEWHAT MORE BANDED STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL  
INLAND DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH FL INTO GA. ANY CLUSTER-PRECEDING  
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, WHILE  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A MORE CERTAIN POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
FARTHER NORTH, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY  
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BE A COMBINATION  
OF CELLS AND BROKEN BANDS PER SOME DEGREE OF FORECAST VEER-BACK-VEER  
(WITH HEIGHT) WIND PROFILES. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 825 FOR  
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH ANY LACK OF INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY AMPLY  
STRONG/WEAKLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. ALONG WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE. A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO RISK MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE  
MAIN WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE OVER NORTHERN NORTH  
CAROLINA/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  
   


 

 

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TOR watch in FL with interesting cells over N FL at this tme

new tornado watch way northRGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1000 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHERN GEORGIA  
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA  
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA  
  SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1000 AM UNTIL  
  600 PM EDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER  
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND TO  
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  
MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, AND  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ALONG  
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION.  

 

 

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Eerily calm here this morning. Looks and feels like rain but the sky just looks depressed (as in sad) and won't give in. Waiting till that line of cells to the East of me gets closer before I "perk my ears up" so to speak. I look forward to seeing the discussions on here. Always informative ^-^ 

~34 miles Northeastish of ATL

*Edit: Getting some intervals of peaking sun. 

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 Central Saluda County in central South Carolina...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 232 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 9 miles west of Saluda, or 22 miles west of Batesburg,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Saluda around 250 PM EDT.
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253 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Laurens County in Upstate South Carolina...
  Central Union County in Upstate South Carolina...

* Until 330 PM EDT

* At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 12 miles southwest of Union, or 4 miles southwest of
  Rose Hill State Park, moving north at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Rose Hill State Park around 300 PM EDT.
  Buffalo around 320 PM EDT.
  Union and Monarch Mill around 330 PM EDT.
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