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Memorial Day weekend severe threats


jojo762

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Flash flood emergency with water rescues in Branson MO

now over 300 filtered LSR on SPC page.....rising fast...widespread wind damage reports 

wind machine over eastern TN may move into the deep south by 12z....huge fast moving bow developing over NW AR and may affect memphis..the stuff over OK and hailers over the panhandles....

 

 

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seeing a 160mph mesocyclone at 12000ft in southern OK go to complete waste due to a lack of low level shear is painful. If we just had more speed in the low levels or at least an appreciable LLJ this storm could be producing bigly right now. But because SRH is so meager, we only get a glimpse as to what almost was.

 

f1c8c666ba4eea9ad6cec509527f8795.png

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seeing a 160mph mesocyclone at 12000ft in southern OK go to complete waste due to a lack of low level shear is painful. If we just had more speed in the low levels or at least an appreciable LLJ this storm could be producing bigly right now. But because SRH is so meager, we only get a glimpse as to what almost was.

 

f1c8c666ba4eea9ad6cec509527f8795.png&key=3b20cd236bca3e41060176df7d23c53f0e4ac0214daef4645eadf2b8ed5039b9


No it's not... TOG in Turner Falls with power flashes. 2500 campers there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

yup went confirmed now, base velocity still kind of messy though.

This storm is up to nearly 65KFT... impressive, but expected given extreme instability in place

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Turner falls campsite getting anther SVR t-storm and flooding....stationary/backbuilding 

meanwhile further east....

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1040 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
  
ARC093-TNC017-033-045-053-075-097-113-280430-  
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-170528T0430Z/  
MISSISSIPPI AR-CROCKETT TN-DYER TN-GIBSON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-  
CARROLL TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-  
1040 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT  
FOR EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CROCKETT...SOUTHERN DYER...GIBSON...  
LAUDERDALE...WESTERN CARROLL...HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES...  
  
AT 1040 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIPLEY, MOVING  
SOUTHEAST AT 100 MPH.
 
  
  
HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  

and memphis

T 1042 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FT PILLOW, OR  
NEAR COVINGTON, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  

  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BARTLETT, WEST MEMPHIS, MARION, MILLINGTON, COVINGTON, RIPLEY,  
OSCEOLA, MARKED TREE, EARLE, LUXORA, PARKIN, WILSON, TYRONZA, KEISER,  
MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK, FORT PILLOW STATE PARK, MEMPHIS,  
LAKELAND, ARLINGTON AND MUNFORD.  

  
 

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13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Environment favorable to maintain?

Well fixed STP in the environment it is moving into is bullseyed at 9, amidst 200-400m2/s2 ESRH with effective shear at 55kts, juxtaposed to strong instability and substantial moisture... But according to SPC mesoanalysis CINH is increasing markedly, so who knows how long it could maintain low-level rotation... Relatively strong supercells like this one have a knack for being able to maintain longer than you might otherwise expect.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON...EAST CENTRAL CARTER AND SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY
COUNTIES...
    
At 1041 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles northwest of
Ravia, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters have confirmed a tornado near Troy. Take 
         cover now! 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Tishomingo, Ravia and Reagan. 

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Well fixed STP in the environment it is moving into is bullseyed at 9, amidst 200-400m2/s2 ESRH with effective shear at 55kts, juxtaposed to strong instability and substantial moisture... But according to SPC mesoanalysis CINH is increasing markedly, so who knows how long it could maintain low-level rotation... Relatively strong supercells like this one have a knack for being able to maintain longer than you might otherwise expect.

It's lining out, could still hang on and pull off some sort of crazy cycle, but looks like that's all she wrote based on current radar presentation.

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Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said:

It's lining out, could still hang on and pull off some sort of crazy cycle, but looks like that's all she wrote based on current radar presentation.

Yeah, radar presentation has declined rapidly on both reflectivity and velocity... But these large supercells like this one have an ornate ability to do some wild stuff sometimes. lol... Not sure this one will achieve anything like that though. 

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1 minute ago, Witness Protection Program said:

 

Is that a typo?  I've never seen a storm with that fast a forward motion before.

no..it was in a warning and anther statement..I have seen it before

the overall system isn't moving that fast "only" 65 MPH or so...but when it bows out within that motion it can pick up even more speed for a short while

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One of the more intense derechoes here in Pigeon Forge, TN. Power went out ahead of the storm, rain wasn't too heavy but the wind easily exceeded 50-60 MPH. Probably some damage, will check in the morning. Power was out city wide. Hasn't been this dark in a long time. 

Edit: Seeing extensive damage reported around the general area.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Downtown memphis likely just got pummeled by 75-95mph winds. Ouch.

Yeah, that was some impressive video on TWC.

Of course I it was on mute, that gal with her constant naggy soundbites and the white-hair guy are awful.  "Now is the time to have an escape plan."   Huh?  It's straight line winds, not storm surge.

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