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Memorial Day weekend severe threats


jojo762

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Collin as a whole has been hit a ton. Got some ping pong ball and egg size hail in the fridge in McKinney to attest to it. Also the huge stones in Plano this year, Wylie last, as well as a bunch of quarter to half dollar size deluges. My boyfriend has lived here only a couple years and he thinks I'm a crazy person for putting up with this and refuses to believe it's not normal

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1 minute ago, Memphis Weather said:

Early look at 20z sounding launced near Loco, OK.

Cap has made significant progress in eroding it appears.

DA3BlCTUwAQsGAA.jpg

SW of OKC and under the boundary I believe, hodograph is a mess...lapse rates still super impressive.  

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Substantial 850-500 mb crossover shear evident in NE OK. If any discrete cells fire and move into that environment, there's going to be problems.

A pool of 76F Tds to feed from as well given low-level trajectories. 

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

 

Dangerous parameter space in place INVOF the outflow boundary in this same region.

SPC mesoanalysis just updated and added a contour of 7000 SBCAPE in this same area. This OFB and the area around it will be the place of most interest for me over the next few hours.

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11 minutes ago, andyhb said:

stpc.gif

Dangerous parameter space in place INVOF the outflow boundary in this same region. Somewhat reminiscent of the 5/10/2008 and 5/22/2011 cases.

Right where the HRRR has stuff forming between 22 and 00z.

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SUMMARY...An extremely unstable airmass is in place across the

eastern half of Oklahoma.  Once surface-based convective initiation

begins, explosive thunderstorm development will lead to rapid

supercell evolution with isolated storm coverage expected.



DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus

field across the eastern half of Oklahoma with a mid-level ACCAS

field across central OK into the greater Tulsa metro.  Eroding

convective inhibition will gradually prove more favorable for a

couple of thunderstorms to develop over the next several hours.  20Z

NSSL mobile soundings in Stephens County, OK and in Ardmore, OK

showed extreme buoyancy with 6317 J/kg and 6474 J/kg MLCAPE,

respectively.  The Ardmore 20Z sounding displayed a negligible

remaining capping inversion.  Effective shear of 48-kt was sampled

with both soundings.  In summary, explosive thunderstorm development

is expected with giant hail an initial risk with the updrafts. 

Middle to upper 70s degrees F dewpoints and forecast 100-200 m2/s2

0-1 km SRH around 00Z and thereafter will yield a tornado risk

(perhaps intense) once established supercells are present.
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