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Memorial Day weekend severe threats


jojo762

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1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

Yup but there's no convection in NEOK at the moment

Regardless of where the convection is located, the fact that it is not handling it well casts uncertainty over whether its forecasted depiction of succeeding DMC will be accurate.

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

storms in central MO which look to be the WAA arm of the developing complex might have the best shot for tornadoes

storms south look sort of messy although VAD out of SGF does show some backing and slight increase of winds the  past hour

80/76 at JLN now with winds backing slightly to 180. 

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I'm getting an eerie May 22nd vibe. It's very humid outside, a passing shower/thundershower passed through around noon. A cluster of storms in SE KS moving slowly. It hasn't been as sunny as that day though. If rapid development happens in far NE OK..... very eerie. 

I'm hoping the SE KS storms produce a cold pool and accelerate to the SE with it and push through. My fear is they'll produce an OFB that comes south at the same time explosive development happens in NE OK and they'll ride that boundary and produce tornadoes.....

 

 

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Latest MCD re: TOR Watch

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase,
   particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri through the
   19-21Z time frame.  This includes the risk for tornadoes and very
   large hail in at least a couple of supercells, before potentially
   damaging wind gusts begin to become a more prominent threat.

   DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm development is now well underway
   across the lower Missouri Valley and Missouri Ozarks region,
   generally focused within a broad/diffuse mid-level baroclinic zone,
   to the north of the plume of warmer and more strongly capping
   elevated mixed layer air emanating from the Mexican Plateau region. 
   A residual pocket of cooler and more stable boundary layer air (due
   to early day cloud cover and precipitation) remains present across
   much of south central Missouri, centered along the Interstate 44
   between Springfield and St. Louis.  It remains unclear, what impact
   that this will have on longer term convective trends, particularly
   storms now southeast of Kansas City.  At least in the near term,
   though, an evolving supercell on the southern flank of this evolving
   cluster may pose a risk for tornadoes, in addition to very large
   hail, near/west and southwest of Sedalia into the Missouri Ozarks
   through 20-21z.

   Otherwise, the evolving cluster of storms to the west of Springfield
   appears to have longer term access to stronger instability, and may
   become more prominent across and east of the Springfield area during
   the next few hours. It appears possible that an evolving supercell
   on the western flank of this activity could pose a risk for
   tornadoes in the presence of modestly large low-level hodographs
   near/north through east of Joplin, before upscale convective growth
   results in a more substantive risk for potentially damaging wind
   gusts.
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13 minutes ago, JoMo said:

I'm getting an eerie May 22nd vibe. It's very humid outside, a passing shower/thundershower passed through around noon. A cluster of storms in SE KS moving slowly. It hasn't been as sunny as that day though. If rapid development happens in far NE OK..... very eerie. 

I'm hoping the SE KS storms produce a cold pool and accelerate to the SE with it and push through. My fear is they'll produce an OFB that comes south at the same time explosive development happens in NE OK and they'll ride that boundary and produce tornadoes.....

 

 

It looks like one in SC KS moving SE

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4 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Lots of vacationers on the Truman and Lake of the Ozarks reservoirs this holiday weekend se of that tor warned Clinton MO cell.  Hope they are aware of things.

Given the forecast several days in advance of severe storms, I hope people just steered clear of going out on the water today. 

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2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

Is that april 14, 2012 as your avatar?

Sure is. One my favorite plains tornado days. In other news, things seem to be getting a lot more cellular area wide, those two large supercells in SW MO/SE KS certainly garner some attention right now.

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Sure is. One my favorite plains tornado days. In other news, things seem to be getting a lot more cellular area wide, those two large supercells in SW MO/SE KS certainly garner some attention right now.

I'm not very enthused by trends, both via radar imagery (see SGF velocity scans) and ground obs. I've been wandering just N/NW of Joplin for the past two hours haven't seen much of anything that suggests near-term tornado potential. Seems outflowy with shelf-like appearances. The more imminent tornado threat may be well NE of SGF and then later on across eastern Oklahoma. 

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