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Convective Thread

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19 minutes ago, radarman said:

The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs were something you'd see in a high risk too.  And we know how that went :yikes:

This couple day stretch on the calendar does seem to produce though, and then a lag before it seems to ramp up again.  Hard to say if it's just low sample size or if there is a climatological reason... My guess is probably the former, but who knows?

6/6 honestly may be the most painful bust of my life...maybe second to Feb '10. That was brutal, but should've been tipped off when lapse rates were anemic and every tower just got ripped to shreds by the shear. 

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Mainly SE sfc winds throughout the region.  Something to watch 

Is this what is meant when you guys say "backed" winds? Just curious. 

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25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is this what is meant when you guys say "backed" winds? Just curious. 

This is something that's always confused me but yes.  However, some people also refer to this is a veering wind.  there is a reason which distinguishes it but I get confused with it 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is something that's always confused me but yes.  However, some people also refer to this is a veering wind.  there is a reason which distinguishes it but I get confused with it 

A SE surface wind is both a backed wind, and also can be referred to as veering, IF the winds turn clockwise with height relative to that SE surface wind. It is backed compared to the rest of the wind field, and the entire wind field is veering. (Ex: SE at Surface, S at 925 mb, WSW at 800mb, SW or W at 500 and up).

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Just now, Phillifan22 said:

A SE surface wind is both a backed wind, and also can be referred to as veering, IF the winds turn clockwise with height relative to that SE surface wind. It is backed compared to the rest of the wind field, and the entire wind field is veering. (Ex: SE at Surface, S at 925 mb, WSW at 800mb, SW or W at 500 and up).

Also: Veered or Veering is the winds turning clockwise with height. Backed or backing is the winds turning counterclockwise with height.

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1630z OTLK seems to suggest best chance for an isolated tornado would be in the Hudson River Valley

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mcd0926.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...Far northeast PA...Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western
   ME...Western MA...Northwest CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311629Z - 311730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
   next hour or so with the strongest storms capable of hail and
   damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed over portions of
   the region to cover this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase
   in cumulus development across eastern NY, within the area of broadly
   confluent surface flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
   Forcing for ascent provided by both the modest surface convergence
   and the shortwave trough is expected to result in thunderstorm
   development during the next hour or two. Low-levels are not
   particularly warm or moist but continued daytime heating should
   contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and adequate insolation to
   remove any remaining convective inhibition. Additionally, cool
   mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -19 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will
   result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, despite dewpoints in the mid
   to upper 50s. Strong mid-level flow will support updraft
   organization and hail development within the more robust updrafts.
   Quick storm motion and downward momentum transfer of the enhanced
   flow aloft could also contribute to some damaging wind gusts. A
   watch will likely be needed to address the resulting severe threat.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   CTP...

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Just made it to NH.  Sun is out!!!  Some of the latest soundings looks really solid for later on.  Should see a few big hailers 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just made it to NH.  Sun is out!!!  Some of the latest soundings looks really solid for later on.  Should see a few big hailers 

 

Just curiously, why did you pick NH when you're already so close to the HV from Danbury?

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3 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

Just curiously, why did you pick NH when you're already so close to the HV from Danbury?

I'm back in West Hartford now but I picked NH b/c my friend who I usually chase with lives here and he was in a car accident several weeks back and is nervous about driving long distances b/c it's not completely right until insurance stuff goes through and it can be fixed.  We will probably end up going into southern VT

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2 hours ago, Phillifan22 said:

Also: Veered or Veering is the winds turning clockwise with height. Backed or backing is the winds turning counterclockwise with height.

I've also seen this being applied to surface winds, such as them backing from NE to NW as LP to our east travels northerly.  Or veering from NE to S if the center passes to our west.

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Sorry Wiz, no mention of tornado in the watchbox... probs are pretty ugly, 50/10 on both wind and hail

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   125 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Connecticut
     Western and Central Massachusetts
     Southwest Maine
     New Hampshire
     Eastern New York
     Vermont

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over
   central/eastern New York and spread eastward across the watch area
   this afternoon and early evening.  The strongest cells will pose a
   risk of hail and gusty/damaging wind gusts.

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm back in West Hartford now but I picked NH b/c my friend who I usually chase with lives here and he was in a car accident several weeks back and is nervous about driving long distances b/c it's not completely right until insurance stuff goes through and it can be fixed.  We will probably end up going into southern VT

I'd hit Wma sVT SNH where you see these gravity waves at low levels, notice the low level junk left behind elsewhere.

GANIM6UcMzQ12.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lapse rates will allow these to survive right to coast tonight. All bang

HRRR is very meh for that, other than a coast scraper after midnight.

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lapse rates will allow these to survive right to coast tonight. All bang

Well if two claps of thunder and a brief down pour gets you excited...power to ya...

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I'd hit Wma sVT SNH where you see these gravity waves at low levels, notice the low level junk left behind elsewhere.

GANIM6UcMzQ12.jpg

Good call!  I thought those were gravity waves but weren't too sure.  Good hearing here too with dews up near 60 and really strong shear

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thunder!!!!!!

Sort of a catch-22. Nice to see fireworks but would be better to capatalize on the sun providing more instability. It's only 2 pm. May want to slightly reposition to a location that still has the sun out and hasn't seen any rain.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Sort of a catch-22. Nice to see fireworks but would be better to capatalize on the sun providing more instability. It's only 2 pm. May want to slightly reposition to a location that still has the sun out and hasn't seen any rain.

Hopefully after this we get back into sun.  As long as this doesn't yield new development this one storm can at least maybe help add some low level moisture 

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