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Convective Thread

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And they haven't extended the SVR.....it's all elevated now.....

Question....are the lightning strikes shown on RadarScope ground strikes only?  Does lightning up in the clouds get registered?

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1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

And they haven't extended the SVR.....it's all elevated now.....

Question....are the lightning strikes shown on RadarScope ground strikes only?  Does lightning up in the clouds get registered?

CG only I think

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Kind of interesting here. The CIPS top 15 analogs from 17.12z runs showing the 36 hour percentage of 1+ SVR (verifying last night at 00z). It had a higher bullseye in the Northeast than where the high risk was.

PRALLC01_nam212F036.png.1cd08dcfcccb744b19118586cf00a41b.png

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Is there a chance of storms today when the C.F. moves through?

BOX not thrilled about it

The other concern continues to be convection potential. As noted
earlier, strong shear and CAPEs near 1500 J/Kg will be fighting
limited moisture for convective initiation. The most likely
location if anything does develop would be across RI/SE Mass.
The SPC HRRR does show a couple of brief isolated storms
developing in this area between 19Z and 20Z. We will continue
our POPs from the earlier forecast, generally slight chance or
low-end chance over RI and SE Mass.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Monday is looking interesting!  Potentially fairly steep lapse rates ahead of decent s/w and strong shear

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Hopefully we can get things to time perfectly, particularly with the steep lapse rates.  Looks like shear will be pretty decent and good moisture/dewpoint advection as well 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Ryan was teasing it on air. 

Yeah some potential Wednesday. Nice cold pool coming in aloft with 500 hpa temps around -19C so we get some steep lapse rates. only marginal low level moisture so CAPE won't be too high but worth watching - especially given the strong deep layer shear.

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I'm chasing today.  

Overnught models looked solid.  Definitely should see widespread thunderstorms with multiple clusters/lines.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a near golf-ball hail report if we get some solid cape

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getting noticeably brighter here in the valley after heavy drizzle to start the morning.  SPC mentioned some mid level drying and we could sure use it... not just to build CAPE but to build morale.  At any rate, the date alone makes me bullish today. 

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22 minutes ago, radarman said:

getting noticeably brighter here in the valley after heavy drizzle to start the morning.  SPC mentioned some mid level drying and we could sure use it... not just to build CAPE but to build morale.  At any rate, the date alone makes me bullish today. 

Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. 

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Just now, Hoth said:

Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. 

The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs were something you'd see in a high risk too.  And we know how that went :yikes:

This couple day stretch on the calendar does seem to produce though, and then a lag before it seems to ramp up again.  Hard to say if it's just low sample size or if there is a climatological reason... My guess is probably the former, but who knows?

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