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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

HRRRX has the front well S of the Pike by mid afternoon. Only firing convection near the south shore. 

I for one am shocked he is going with the solution or set-up that would yield the most excitement...especially with a screen name of DamageInTolland you'd think he'd run on the more tame side of things and not toss all model data that might lead to a boring afternoon.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I for one am shocked he is going with the solution or set-up that would yield the most excitement...especially with a screen name of DamageInTolland you'd think he'd run on the more tame side of things and not toss all model data that might lead to a boring afternoon.

Since we tossed the NAM, here's a wild sounding from the GFS.

5966c58bd5553_2017071218_GFS_024_41.49-72.56_severe_ml.thumb.png.0c3eed379eba29f7e3a114bf64018435.png

Meh shear, meh lapse rates, straight hodographs, but PWATs are nearly 2" if you like heavy rain.

Actually I would say the model he's telling us to toss is showing a better chance for severe. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These always push south rather quick. I would not toss HRRX.

This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way?

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way?

Yea when that front pushed into Sect it was a red flag for tomorrow.  Still will probably rain but meh

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25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This afternoon's round has already shoved the theta-e boundary towards Long Island. That means it needs to get back to the Pike tomorrow to set the stage. Can it happen? Sure. But will it happen? What's the forcing, when the pressure gradient is pointing the other way?

yeah look at the 3-hr theta-e changes...yikes

 

thte_chg_sf.gif?1499909405288

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The NAM NEST does show something going through Waterbury/Naugatuck around 5:00 PM tomorrow while I'm in class.  Thankfully this class has a window and I sit right next to the window and it faces NW!!!!!!!!!  If tomorrow was going to be big I was planning on skipping but forgot we have a quiz...WHO GIVES QUIZZES IN SUMMER CLASSES??????

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

This is one hell of a backdoor for mid July. 

Down our way it's imposing a fantastic gradient ... 

It's 90/70 at JFK in NYC at 9:30 AM while it is contrasting, 64 F at KFIT ..and in the low to mid 50s in SW Maine!

it is something to behold if one is privy on baser climatology for these sort of things...that's way more akin to early May ..  

It's been an odd summer.  We had more cool days than one would imagine possible given the longer duration means and averages.  Two heat waves early on broke records for achieving them ...so early on; yet, transpired during a general 6-week period of at or below normal.  Kind of odd to say the least.  

By the way...that's dangerous heat in SW zones... this afternoon.  If the sun continues unabated they'll be theta-e pooled under 18 C at 850 with tallish mixing depths.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

With the front sagging south and approaching MCV almost acting as a warm front, I have to think someone near PVD-IJD-BDL on south..maybe up to CEF is going to get inches of rain.

yeah flash flooding may actually be the biggest concern today.  The 12z NAM NEST is quite aggressive though with a rather intense looking line developing across central CT and sagging southward.  

I'm also curious about something...I don't place a whole lot of stock in this "potential hazard box" but I wonder what algorithms or whatever is used to determine the type.  I mean look at this sounding...I don't see anything that indicates a tornado potential.  I mean I guess you do have SW winds in the lowest 5000' and more WSW above that.  If the winds in the lowest 5000' were stronger and more speed shear I guess maybe I could see it...idk

 

2017071312_NAMNST_006_41.6,-72.95_severe

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

With the front sagging south and approaching MCV almost acting as a warm front, I have to think someone near PVD-IJD-BDL on south..maybe up to CEF is going to get inches of rain.

I mean I think it's pretty safe to say it'll be along and south of that front. The threat most likely won't line up the way SPC is drawn. I would be shocked if marginal severe made it into areas that are in the 50s.

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