ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 That storm SE of ORH def had some rotation for a time, but prob not a good enough couplet to produce a tornado warning. Nice cell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Some rotation but kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Wouldn't really call that a hook echo, lol. That carries a certain severity in its definition that definitely does not fit the mold on that storm. We're looking at training downpours today, frequent lightning, some organized storms that might reach strong > severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 It even was right turning for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Interesting radar loop on that cell, it hit 495 and split in half. one half went NE, the other SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: Interesting radar loop on that cell, it hit 495 and split in half. one half went NE, the other SE. Hodos show both possible. Also weaker low level winds can cause erratic motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 That was a fun storm. Lots of torrential rains and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hodos show both possible. Also weaker low level winds can cause erratic motions. Yeah, that's a pretty straight hodograph from CHH at 12z this morning. Splitters more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: Wouldn't really call that a hook echo, lol. That carries a certain severity in its definition that definitely does not fit the mold on that storm. We're looking at training downpours today, frequent lightning, some organized storms that might reach strong > severe. I mean it was a hook, but it wasn't wild rotation. We've come a long way from the days when mets discovered that tornadic storms often present as hooks on radar displays. Now we know most supercells take that shape, and we need to dig deeper for TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 odd motion on storms today, south of the pike seem to be moving SE, north seem to be moving NE.. pretty cool to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: odd motion on storms today, south of the pike seem to be moving SE, north seem to be moving NE.. pretty cool to watch If the environment hasn't changed much, right movers should be about 300/35kt and left movers 240/30kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 Looks like models backed off some on the potential for tomorrow south of the Pike. Front seems a little more aggressive. Probably makes sense...looks like a pretty well defined backdoor with nothing to really prevent it from flying south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 westerly 850mb winds not usually a good sign either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 If you look at 2M temps from 18z to 21z tomorrow on the NAM I can't tell if the major drop in temps is due to backdoor moving through, precipitation moving through, or a combination of both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If you look at 2M temps from 18z to 21z tomorrow I can't tell if the major drop in temps is due to backdoor moving through, precipitation moving through, or a combination of both What backdoor? Deep, deep summer all the way to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 NAMnest sends that puppy all the way to PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 CMCreg also wedges us into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What backdoor? Deep, deep summer all the way to Montreal. I don't see much to really halt the southwestward progression of the BDCF. What are some things to look at though to determine how quickly/slowly BDCF's move? pressure gradients? strength of temperature gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I don't see much to really halt the southwestward progression of the BDCF. What are some things to look at though to determine how quickly/slowly BDCF's move? pressure gradients? strength of temperature gradient? Watch where the high pressure builds. The NAM wants to build it into ME, which is why it sends the front to PHL. CMCreg is farther NE with the high, so farther NE with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Like you said, also pay attention to pressure gradient/change. For instance, the NAM has a +7 mb 6 hour change centered about over LWM with a strong pressure gradient through ORH to EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 where ever the models want to average out the position of that BD ...shave 100 naut miles off the latitude (per interval) and push it that much more south of that mean. That's the standard inch violation of the summer enthusiast's butt. Any questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: where ever the models want to average out the position of that BD ...shave 100 naut miles off the latitude (per interval) and push it that much more south of that mean. That's the standard inches of the summer enthusiast butt. Any questions? And despite what some people may think, it's not driven by the water temps. Yes, to some degree colder water temps will support higher pressure and a propensity for high pressure to build into that region, but if the high builds into the Maritimes or New England, that front is moving SW. It just may be a "warmer" backdoor than in April or May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 west wind at 850 doesn't mean much. look at the design/evolution of the mid level heights up N of Maine...They are in a confluent structure...which means surface pressures are positively differentiating because of the synoptic scaled DVM. The +PP then sends a mass-continuity restoration wave (atmospheric tsunamis of cold misery) air back SW underneath the more apparent environmental flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Hey now, 65 dBZ to 26 kft over Pawtucket. That'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 kgyx is seeing 60 dBZ to 37 kft, and 42 to 45 kft. That's a solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And despite what some people may think, it's not driven by the water temps. Yes, to some degree colder water temps will support higher pressure and a propensity for high pressure to build into that region, but if the high builds into the Maritimes or New England, that front is moving SW. It just may be a "warmer" backdoor than in April or May. yeah the cold water can and does modulate the temperature down, but that's after the large scale mechanisms are set into motion.. The destiny of the annoying llv punch from the NE was written long before the ocean got involve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 I don't think I recall any situation in the past where a BD was anywhere close to the mass-field discussion and it DIDN'T over-achieve. Put it that way... Never has it gone the other way. But... I'm sure it's happened at some point in the last 1,000,000 years of eastern North America's geological past - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Anyone in ct getting in on these? Look sweet. Trying to summon them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Watch where the high pressure builds. The NAM wants to build it into ME, which is why it sends the front to PHL. CMCreg is farther NE with the high, so farther NE with the front. 26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Like you said, also pay attention to pressure gradient/change. For instance, the NAM has a +7 mb 6 hour change centered about over LWM with a strong pressure gradient through ORH to EWB. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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