Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: yeah Thursday is intriguing. Have to see if we do get that plume of steeper lapse rates to move overhead. Even with meh lapse rates though dewpoints looks to be quite juicy with good moisture pooling and shear doesn't look too bad either. Could see a few supercells Thursday afternoon if we don't back door... that set up looks tenuous to me; on-going and or residual convection happening through the N -side of that boundary and it will come south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: if we don't back door... that set up looks tenuous to me; on-going and or residual convection happening through the N -side of that boundary and it will come south We might be effed up here. That warm front does not look like it wants to get back up this way after it sneaks south tonight. But I could see it getting back into central/southern NH before the cold front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: if we don't back door... that set up looks tenuous to me; on-going and or residual convection happening through the N -side of that boundary and it will come south it sure will be close. Might actually have better potential down here in CT lol. It will be quite the difference in air masses behind/ahead of the front lol. The NAM also has a much stronger speed maxima moving overhead Thursday too while the GFS has nada. NAMNEST has a nice what looks to be a broken line of storms pushing through southern MA and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: if we don't back door... that set up looks tenuous to me; on-going and or residual convection happening through the N -side of that boundary and it will come south You door . South of Pike doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 The differences between the GFS and NAM are rather impressive really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 Looks like given the pressure gradient the BDCF should slide well down into E MA...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 The 12z NAM bufkit for IJD was pretty wild looking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You door . South of Pike doesn't it would be nice if the atmosphere worked by the physical laws of the world-according-to-Garp, yes... no, if it starts moving, ...it doesn't stop. that's the rub of this geography east of ALB-RUT line...it's a natural "tuck" topography and it needs less momentum to "fill in" from the N/NE than just about anywhere else on the planet (sarcasm but true in way). can't tell you how many times fronts over-excel underneath support aloft because this geographical/atmospheric coupled factoring,. you end up with fronts down over NYC with the support for the front aloft up near Manchester NH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 GFS is a lovely July afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 NAM and Euro much slower as the pattern dictates. Toss her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 On the way home from Lowes, I could see the top of the super distant storms in N VT. Once home, I realized it was mostly hidden behind the hill but I'm posting this intense photo of it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 ok well, attachments don't work for me right now, so just use your imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: ok well, attachments don't work for me right now, so just use your imagination. It's breathtaking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Morning soundings off the hook. Gonna be some big ones today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 whatever happens ...it's probably gotta be d'day - Even NYC BD's on the NAM on Thursday ...all the way down to +15 in the T1 (probably mid 60s) on this FRH grid, with NE wind there. Meanwhile, SNE is steeped in GOM/southern Ontario mash-up misery air mass. In fact, it's deep enough in the sounding that the LI's over just about the whole region rise from -3 or so all the way to +5 or 6 on the regional scope. B'bye warm and humid... On hi res sat loop you can see strata and fog already assuming a SW trajectory over western NS. I also think that MCS desitined to dive S of us out of Michigan plays a role. As it does ... it'll truncate the environmental flow down some and that lowers resistance for the front to cut in... Or not - this part is hypothetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 it really is a BD air mass more akin to early May ... par for the course for a summer that's been plagued by a winter trough I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 As usual Nam waaay overdone on temps. Water temps are in the upper 60's.. and it's spitting out mid 50's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Looks like a few towers trying to pop over in Ct, maybe Ginx area? Gorgeous day otherwise. Water was like glass during my paddle this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Going to see some big rain amounts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Isolated spinup possible in SNE today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Isolated spinup possible in SNE today? No shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Can just see outline in the distance. Not sure how far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Hmm....no one talking about that warned storm south of Worcester? It had a hail core and now looks to have a hook echo and is turning right. I only have crappy radar here at work so if anyone has any good radar screens of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Hmm....no one talking about that warned storm south of Worcester? It had a hail core and now looks to have a hook echo and is turning right. I only have crappy radar here at work so if anyone has any good radar screens of it... weather.cod.edu and yea its interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 I noticed that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 golf balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md1295.html SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected across southern New York and southern New England this afternoon. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggest the remnants of a weak MCS have shifted into southern NY, centered over BGM CWA. Over the last hour or so convection has gradually increased ahead of an old MCV that is embedded within the left-over convective debris. Scattered thunderstorms are developing within a modestly buoyant air mass extending from the lower Hudson Valley east into southern New England. Deep-layer westerly flow favors multi-cell updrafts and gusty winds and marginally severe hail could accompany this activity. At this time it does not appear a severe thunderstorm watch will be warranted, though a few strong-severe storms will likely be evident along this corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: weather.cod.edu and yea its interesting Yep, that's what I use at work...but it's just not the same as weatherTAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 We could have a few interesting structures/features but llvl shear is too weak I think for any tornadoes. Unless some sort of boundary enhances low level rotation the biggest threat from these would probably be 1.5" to 1.75" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 If we had stronger llvl shear we would have a few TOR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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