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Convective Thread

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Bridgeton ME TOR confirmed  EF1 yesterday.

In total we have two separate EF-1's in Bridgton, one EF-0 on Sebago, and another EF-0 in Denmark ME. So 4 total that we know of. There are a few highly unpopulated spots near Waterville Valley NH and east of Jackson NH where there could have been a couple but it will be hard to know. The survey team also looked at the damage on Conway Lake NH and called that an 85 mph microburst.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
In total we have two separate EF-1's in Bridgton, one EF-0 on Sebago, and another EF-0 in Demark ME. So 4 total that we know of. There are a few highly unpopulated spots near Waterville Valley NH and east of Jackson NH where there could have been a couple but it will be hard to know. The survey team also looked at the damage on Conway Lake NH and called that an 85 mph microburst.



My cousins lake house on Long lake just north of Salmon Point was in the path of one of the Bridgeton EF1's they lost over a dozen plus trees, And had some damage to there cottage from one of the trees falling But on the bright side, They now have a 100% view of the lake which was obscured before.
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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 


My cousins lake house on Long lake just north of Salmon Point was in the path of one of the Bridgeton EF1's they lost over a dozen plus trees, And had some damage to there cottage from one of the trees falling But on the bright side, They now have a 100% view of the lake which was obscured before.

 

Property value = up

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
On 7/2/2017 at 0:35 AM, Arnold214 said:

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

Anytime! Everytime I pulled up radarscope there was another sweet couplet with a warning polygon around it. Nice work. 

Any damage reports from the stuff in NH? 

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted
On 7/3/2017 at 11:50 AM, CT Rain said:

Anytime! Everytime I pulled up radarscope there was another sweet couplet with a warning polygon around it. Nice work. 

Any damage reports from the stuff in NH? 

I'll probably talk to the forest service in the coming days to see if they stumbled on anything. One of the best couplets of the day was in the national forest between Jackson and Chatham NH. So remote.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
On ‎7‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 10:12 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe someone can elaborate on this but is that area up in ME conducive to spin-ups with the mountains to the west?  Seems like the down-sloping off of them could help enhance storms.

You've probably read Tip's hypothses in #679.  Seems like the tornados have moved back to Oxford County, where they've been the most common, at least by my memory.  In 2011-2013 they were all in the area from Baxter Park north to Eagle Lake.  And the tract we manage immediately east of that town has had an inordinate amount of damaging wind events, though all straight-line.  The Eagle Lake tornado in (IIRC) 2013 became non-tornadic to the east while flattening about 200 acres.  We salvaged 3,000 cords but left half that much as it was on steep slope facing the lake, and could not be economically retrieved while maintaining water quality.  In 2005 a skipping microburst blew over patches along a 10-mile track touching 3 townships, the largest blowdown some 65 acres, from which we salvaged 1,700 cords.  The biggest one came late in the season, Sept. 30, 1986, and crushed a strip 4 miles long with 300 acres on the State land and 300 on our east abutter, ending by blowing trees into Square Lake.  Not surveyed (to my knowledge) by NWS, the damage seemed consistent with winds 90-100 mph.  (Ironically, on the same date 5 years later the same area had 4-5" snow.)

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Looks like NWS has added a 5th Tornado in Otisfield ME EF0 on 07/01/17 

000
NWUS51 KGYX 051946
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW OTISFIELD         44.16N  70.60W
07/01/2017                   OXFORD             ME   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON BOLSTERS MILL ROAD AND
            MOVED EAST. LIFTED JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            PEACO ROAD AND RAYVILLE ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1704128

$$

MLE

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Flash flood threat tomorrow? Pretty high PWATs around. 

the biggest question will be how far N this warm front is able
to shift during the late night/early AM hours, because this will
define how far N the deep layer instability and moisture will
reach. Within the warm sector am noting PWATS as high as nearly
2.00 inches along with a deep theta-e ridge. As previous
forecaster noted, with the higher instability 50-100sm S of the
S coast of S New England, this could be a case where the deeper
convective elements shift S of the coastline and remain mostly
offshore and even somewhat usurp moisture that could be rained
out across mainland S New England. Latest mesoscale guidance (at
least the 00Z runs) supports this thinking along with the latest
ECMWF. However within any convection inland, very heavy rain is
possible, and given it could slide along the S coast, may need
to consider a FF Watch with latest update if the trend is to
push the warm front further inland than current guidance
suggests. The best chance for 1.00-2.00 inches (in short time)
is along the immediate S coast, closest to the instability and
deep layer moisture.

Also, how far north the warm front could also define the low
risk for a brief tornado or waterspout near the S coast (again,
offshore has the best chance). Noting a corridor of 1-3km
helicity values over 300 (EHI near 1.0) along with a very moist
decoupled BL. It`s a low risk, but given that along-warm-
frontal convection tends to be a good synoptic/mesoscale setup
for New England tornadic development, and the development of a
mesolow enhancing the shear, this will need to be watched
closely given the low lvl moisture.

Best time for all of this activity, should it occur is between
about 4AM and 10AM local.
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