dryslot Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 81/72°F, Soupy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region into New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191445Z - 191715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected into and through the 1-4 PM EDT time frame, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. At least a couple of severe weather watches appear likely within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Ahead of lingering pre-frontal convection, insolation within a seasonably high moisture content boundary layer (surface dew points near/above 70F) is contributing to moderately large CAPE and weakening inhibition. This is occurring from the lee of the Allegheny Mountains through much of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys into the mountains of northern New England, where lower/mid tropospheric flow is already cyclonic and modest in strength. Although large-scale upstream troughing is only very slowly progressing eastward, weak mid-level height falls associated with subtle embedded perturbations may aid storm development into the 17-20Z time frame. The initiation of thunderstorms already appears underway across the Poconos, Catskills into and northeast of the Berkshires, and a gradual increase in coverage/intensification seems probable into early afternoon. Eventually, in the presence of soundings that appear characterized by high precipitable water and 30-40 kt south to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer may contribute to increasing potential for downbursts. Consolidating and strengthening cold pools may also contribute to organizing convection accompanied by strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP... LAT...LON 46317018 45996884 44636944 42887161 41847291 41107398 39717604 39857746 40837723 41927614 42827488 43947365 44767292 45287237 46317018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Ugh. I hope I don't have a training deal setting up imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Thunder and some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Could be decent, I feel like I do better when the storms are coming from any direction besides NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 Leaving work around 12:30 and headed to Litchfield to setup for chasing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 Scratch that...can't leave work early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: Thunder and some light rain. Training storms just south of here. Increasing thunder activity past 15 minutes. Overcast, sprinkles, breezy and cooler now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 sucks I can't get out of work early...that stuff is poised to head towards Litchfield too. Hopefully stuff will still be going on after 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 I wonder if these storms are arriving too early as well. Best shear still just a bit off to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 +TSRA Rates are about 1"/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Most of NH and ME added to the STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 84/73°F, This airmass certainly has the fuel for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: +TSRA Rates are about 1"/hr 5.38"/hr now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Down to a new low of 69.6F. Looks like a lot of clearing behind this so we should destabilize again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: sucks I can't get out of work early...that stuff is poised to head towards Litchfield too. Hopefully stuff will still be going on after 5 Just a few miles away from Litchfield - thunder is currently booming (but according to radar and lightning strike data and warning box, likely passing north of me, at least at this stage of the game - all bets are off later on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hoping to get some good chaseable storms after 3 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Plenty sun here, sucks storms will die out soppy out with 76 DPSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Let's try and tear down as many trees as we can today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 We cleared out here nicely as well. Environment is clearly primed. If we don't see widespread severe around here it would be a disappointment from an atmospheric condition and timing standpoint. Can't find anything wrong with this setup. As good as it gets around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 lots of sunny breaks here too...should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let's try and tear down as many trees as we can today Will be tough for you to do with leafless oaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Atmosphere should recover from any midday thundershowers in Connecticut. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if these storms are arriving too early as well. Best shear still just a bit off to the west Early afternoon convection appears to be lifting north and east out of your target area. Main line should come in later this afternoon. Maybe you can leave a little early. Dang that chase terrain looks as bad as East Tenn. Still, if it's local you gotta try. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Congrats on the flood Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on the flood Brian. Central NH looks like it's under the gun. That developing MCS in Eastern NYS also looks like it's heading that way. Could be incredible rainfall totals up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: sucks I can't get out of work early...that stuff is poised to head towards Litchfield too. Hopefully stuff will still be going on after 5 Headed to Mohawk Mtn right now. Then I'll be figuring out where to go from there. I have all my camera equipment and my drone. Hoping to capture some interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 0.06" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: 0.06" so far 0.44" through the tipper. It doesn't look good for the run and basement. Hopefully we can pull a little borderline severe out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 47 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Atmosphere should recover from any midday thundershowers in Connecticut. Early afternoon convection appears to be lifting north and east out of your target area. Main line should come in later this afternoon. Maybe you can leave a little early. Dang that chase terrain looks as bad as East Tenn. Can you get more toward central Connecticut? Still, if it's local you gotta try. Good luck! I actually live in central CT. My hope is to be able to get to BDL since it has great views Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let's try and tear down as many trees as we can today Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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