Hoth Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Obviously not an apples to apples comparison here, but the SPC has frequently used the example that 6/1/11 would have been an enhanced across much of the Northeast based on their probabilities. Now if we could just get an EML in here to go with the shear. Some 8 degree lapse rates would make a nice atmospheric pressure cooker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Well we've lost Monday. Wednesday looks quite interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well we've lost Monday. Wednesday looks quite interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Your boy Sippy.. SPC has us in a Day-3 outlook of SLIGHT to ENHANCED, but considering stable heights, drier air mixing in, and marginal lapse rates, feel the threat will be W right on our door- step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Your boy Sippy.. SPC has us in a Day-3 outlook of SLIGHT to ENHANCED, but considering stable heights, drier air mixing in, and marginal lapse rates, feel the threat will be W right on our door- step. Glad we don't live there. I agree it's not looking like a severe threat all the way to BOX, but many of the "we"s on the subforum have a shot at severe with that mid level core of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Think best stuff would be confined back across central NY down into PA/parts of the mid-Atlantic to northeastern NY into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Glad we don't live there. I agree it's not looking like a severe threat all the way to BOX, but many of the "we"s on the subforum have a shot at severe with that mid level core of winds. Yeah still a threat for W CT/W MA/VT I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I vividly remember him ragging on Ryan and Wiz for hyping a "typical cold front" the day before 6/1/11, despite all the evidence of an abnormal setup. Of course, he eventually flipped the other way and called for 10-20 tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah still a threat for W CT/W MA/VT I'd imagine. There is a pretty good flash flood signal too. Lot of training storm tracks. Picnic tables could be washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: There is a pretty good flash flood signal too. Lot of training storm tracks. Picnic tables could be washed away. Yeah it is - flow parallel to the front. I wonder if we can get some discrete action ahead of the flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it is - flow parallel to the front. I wonder if we can get some discrete action ahead of the flooding? Just browsing through the forecast soundings up this way, there is a little bit of capping very low in the atmosphere but it wouldn't take much to pop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Looks good for Albany through VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoth said: I vividly remember him ragging on Ryan and Wiz for hyping a "typical cold front" the day before 6/1/11, despite all the evidence of an abnormal setup. Of course, he eventually flipped the other way and called for 10-20 tors. Obligatory post reminding one and all that the subforum's biggest severe weenie was whiling away his time scoring a baseball game that fateful day while all hell was braking loos less than an hour away. Sorry Wiz, just had to get that in. Oh the irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 One thing I would love to do my senior research on is analyzing NE severe events and focusing on mid/upper jet streaks and proximity to them. Outside of steep lapse rates I have a hypothesis that this fascist plays a much more substantial role than what is thought when assessing svr potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Think we'll see the fropa progress much slower with parallel flow to front. Think the severe threat will shift west of SNE. Think storms quickly weaken as they approach MA and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Think we'll see the fropa progress much slower with parallel flow to front. Think the severe threat will shift west of SNE. Think storms quickly weaken as they approach MA and CT Color me surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Think we'll see the fropa progress much slower with parallel flow to front. Think the severe threat will shift west of SNE. Think storms quickly weaken as they approach MA and CT We've been saying congrats ALB to SNH for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: We've been saying congrats ALB to SNH for days I guess there is the possibility of discrete ahead of the line which we may have to watch for. Not really sure how high this potential is though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I guess there is the possibility of discrete ahead of the line which we may have to watch for. Not really sure how high this potential is though CAMs are trying to initiate off of terrain influences. I'm not ready to sleep on it yet, winds are strong for this time of year and there is a decent bit of turning in the lowest 1km, not to mention low LCLs. A rogue spinner wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: CAMs are trying to initiate off of terrain influences. I'm not ready to sleep on it yet, winds are strong for this time of year and there is a decent bit of turning in the lowest 1km, not to mention low LCLs. A rogue spinner wouldn't shock me. Yeah I wouldn't be shocked either. These setups are always really tricky b/c sometimes they will produce but most of the time they don't. It will all come down to mesoscale interactions and features I guess. I think the only way we get severe down in SNE is with discrete. Up your way I think it will be fairly active (better dynamics/jet support) but down this way I think the timing just isn't there and height falls are meh. Also seems like a bit f a disconnect between strongest llvl flow and best cape (shocker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah I wouldn't be shocked either. These setups are always really tricky b/c sometimes they will produce but most of the time they don't. It will all come down to mesoscale interactions and features I guess. I think the only way we get severe down in SNE is with discrete. Up your way I think it will be fairly active (better dynamics/jet support) but down this way I think the timing just isn't there and height falls are meh. Also seems like a bit f a disconnect between strongest llvl flow and best cape (shocker) I see severe in the mountains and maybe into western CT, then things weaken and a couple isolated wind damage reports come out late as BOX finds some rotted tree limbs down north of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I see severe in the mountains and maybe into western CT, then things weaken and a couple isolated wind damage reports come out late as BOX finds some rotted tree limbs down north of ORH. exactly what I see happening. My hope though is we'll get some discrete around here at like 6 PM...I get out of work at 5 and maybe I can salvage some sort of chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 Could be a nice outbreak tomorrow across southern Ontario. maybe a couple TOR's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 SPC talking New England style dirty this morning: A low-conditional risk for a weak/brief supercell tornado is seemingly focused from the lower Hudson Valley and western portions of southern New England where forecast hodographs are largest and the risk for quasi-discrete storm modes is also appreciably high. They had me at "low-conditional" and "quasi-discrete" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Could be a nice outbreak tomorrow across southern Ontario. maybe a couple TOR's there Environment looks pretty good. Some of the forecast soundings are pretty nasty over towards Quebec too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 What's funny to me is before I even arrived on this forum this morning I had come to thinking it had a low LCL favorability to it ...where parcel acceleration gets going at low-ish altitudes and that helps bring any rotation at all closer to the ground.. .blah blah.. But with DPs in the 72 range and favorable hodographic rotation like that I was thinking the typical climo geographies that force a S components would also feed into that. Of course, column sheaths will look truly impenetrable with contained choking rains in that sort of PWAT. Some of the very heaviest ground-raised foment you'll see happens from June deluges over the course of a year. It's like the best time of the year to find a nexus of high DP up underneath a stubborn jet near by... Pretty classic look there. Although SPC discusses discrete structures ... Hmm. I also get the impression just comparing the 500 mb with the surface PP that there could be some training there. The vector at 500 is ... SW more than less, while the surface is ... SW more than less, but tending to veer S conditionally/subgeostrophic in the planetary boundary layer (again...low LCLs in positive shearing under updrafts). Don't think hail is an issue there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Definitely looks interesting for areas west of 91 in SNE. Watch for discrete stuff out ahead of main line. Not much forcing but we are loaded with moisture (k index over 35) aoing with strong shear and enough sfc based cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 31 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely looks interesting for areas west of 91 in SNE. Watch for discrete stuff out ahead of main line. Not much forcing but we are loaded with moisture (k index over 35) aoing with strong shear and enough sfc based cape What do you think determines whether discrete forms ahead of squall lines or not? (Perhaps this answer is just as easy as forcing/shear) but I feel like with these setups we always ask ourselves as whether it will happen or not...sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. I wonder what set of factors determine whether this happens or not. Do you think it could be based off of very weak/subtle disturbances pushing through which are associated with just enough upward lift to get an updraft going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 The NAM actually looks a tad better with pushing some better mid-level support towards SNE by early evening. I do think though we'll see a few nasty supercells out in the HV tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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