ma blizzard Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 gusts to 48 at Kbed with that cell entering Boston now .. not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Torrington Connecticut down in the valley, Looking West/Northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: a few wind reports...seems like that's what will be the threat with these. I don't think we'll see any severe hail unless some storm really takes off. 63 mph in Cambridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Hail! 50mph winds... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 63 mph in Cambridge I can confirm. Scott thought I was crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 That's a nice storm for BOS/Quincy peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 That was 40-50 and dime hail. Great storm, not much LTG. In Cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I can confirm. Scott thought I was crazy That was in the storm though. I can see that. Not outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Friend who works in Mass Gen confirmed hail as well on facetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was in the storm though. I can see that. Not outflow. Not sure it was outflow. I think we saw the beginning of core collapse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Here's my shot of the storm as it dropped SE of me looking due south or so. You can see the way the winds, rain are blowing outward from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Why does all the good stuff always miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 House under construction collapsed in E Somerville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 63 mph in Cambridge That's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: House under construction collapsed in E Somerville Stay safe ya hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 On 6/13/2017 at 6:26 PM, sbos_wx said: House under construction collapsed in E Somerville Eff that noise. We just went under contract to build a place up here in PWM. We don't root for damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice description here of some of the utility of GOES-R, https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2017/06/15/central-plains-severe-15-june-2017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 On 6/13/2017 at 3:17 PM, weatherwiz said: what's the VIL for the day? Anyone still calculate that? Albany used to mention it all the time in their AFD's but haven't seen that in quite some years. Trash that garbage. It has its uses, like assessing relative strength of storms compared to one another, but there are much better ways to interrogate a storm in real time. You are much better off setting dBZ thresholds to certain heights (i.e. the Donavon 50 dBZ height). A common one I use in addition to the 50 dBZ (because storms rarely hit that level in New England but still produce severe) is 55 dBZ to -23C, 60 to -17, and 65 to -7. Another common one is 70 dBZ over the freezing level, though sometimes that gets you a lot of pea size hail not large hail. On 6/13/2017 at 3:28 PM, weatherwiz said: Are these high CC values detecting hail? Still trying to full understand CC/ZDR and how to analyze them on radar With hail detection you are looking for a few things. High dBZ helps, but with dual pol you want to focus on ZDR and CC. You will have ZDR near zero because hail tumbles as it falls. Tumbling hail will "average out" to be round (i.e. as wide and it is tall, 0 ZDR). Then you also want to see that collocated with low CC. You will have low CC because you are sampling an area with mixed hail and rain, and very different hydrometeor sizes. We're starting to see signs that when you have high dBZ, near 0 ZDR, and CC that falls below like 0.80, it is favorable for significant hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Nice. Where u building?Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Nice. Where u building? Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk North Deering section of Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Spc already has us in the day 4 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 12 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Trash that garbage. It has its uses, like assessing relative strength of storms compared to one another, but there are much better ways to interrogate a storm in real time. You are much better off setting dBZ thresholds to certain heights (i.e. the Donavon 50 dBZ height). A common one I use in addition to the 50 dBZ (because storms rarely hit that level in New England but still produce severe) is 55 dBZ to -23C, 60 to -17, and 65 to -7. Another common one is 70 dBZ over the freezing level, though sometimes that gets you a lot of pea size hail not large hail. With hail detection you are looking for a few things. High dBZ helps, but with dual pol you want to focus on ZDR and CC. You will have ZDR near zero because hail tumbles as it falls. Tumbling hail will "average out" to be round (i.e. as wide and it is tall, 0 ZDR). Then you also want to see that collocated with low CC. You will have low CC because you are sampling an area with mixed hail and rain, and very different hydrometeor sizes. We're starting to see signs that when you have high dBZ, near 0 ZDR, and CC that falls below like 0.80, it is favorable for significant hail. Thanks for this information and explanation!!! This is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Spc already has us in the day 4 outlook Some people are going crazy bonkers talking widespread severe and possibility for isolated tornadoes lol. This is a typical northeast severe setup...southwest flow, crappy lapse rates, modest instability thanks to dews/temps , and we do have solid shear. I suspect scattered pockets of wind damage but nothing overly crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 11 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Some people are going crazy bonkers talking widespread severe and possibility for isolated tornadoes lol. This is a typical northeast severe setup...southwest flow, crappy lapse rates, modest instability thanks to dews/temps , and we do have solid shear. I suspect scattered pockets of wind damage but nothing overly crazy I'll say it has my attention when I see 50 knot flags popping up at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'll say it has my attention when I see 50 knot flags popping up at 850 mb. The shear is certainly there no doubt but I think we are really lacking better mid and upper level jet support. The core of the jet streaks are well displaced from the warm sector and the warm sector is going to be characterized by poor lapse rates, good deal of cloud debris (but there will be plenty of breaks), and weakly capped. There are some things on paper which look good but I think there are too many negatives to lead towards a bigger/widespread severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The shear is certainly there no doubt but I think we are really lacking better mid and upper level jet support. The core of the jet streaks are well displaced from the warm sector and the warm sector is going to be characterized by poor lapse rates, good deal of cloud debris (but there will be plenty of breaks), and weakly capped. There are some things on paper which look good but I think there are too many negatives to lead towards a bigger/widespread severe event. I definitely don't like the shear vectors being parallel to the front. That could mean more of flash flood threat than a severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I definitely don't like the shear vectors being parallel to the front. That could mean more of flash flood threat than a severe threat. Especially when you're talking PWAT values between 1.5''-2''. That's just not good for severe either...cape gets water loaded and we're already looking at skinny cape profiles with crappy lapse rates in place. Given degree of shear, if buoyancy isn't strong enough updrafts can have a real tough time growing tall enough...even if we had like 1500-2000 SBcape b/c of water loading without the better mid/upper jet support. We have had plenty of similar setups before and I remember I used to get so pumped for them but they never panned out to how some (including myself) panned them out to be. I'm sure there will be severe weather...it just isn't going to be anything overly eye opening. However, maybe we can spin up a HV special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 50 knot 850s FTW. Day 3 enhanced, that's pretty rarefied air for New England. Even clips a bit of Hartford County there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: 50 knot 850s FTW. Day 3 enhanced, that's pretty rarefied air for New England. Even clips a bit of Hartford County there. Was going to say, can't remember seeing a Day 3 enhanced before in this neck of the woods. A slight at that range is usually the best we can ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Was going to say, can't remember seeing a Day 3 enhanced before in this neck of the woods. A slight at that range is usually the best we can ask. Obviously not an apples to apples comparison here, but the SPC has frequently used the example that 6/1/11 would have been an enhanced across much of the Northeast based on their probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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