Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Convective Thread


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

I dunno maybe I'm an optimist here, but the steady drop in ML temps combined with the unobstructed (cloudless) heating of the already-torched surface and moist dews should make for widespread strong and localized severe throughout the area. Don't need much of a forcing mechanism with these surface conditions....

The problem I'm seeing is we likely  have pulsing cells where cells pop but are unable to maintain potent structure with too much Cape relative to shear...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno maybe I'm an optimist here, but the steady drop in ML temps combined with the unobstructed (cloudless) heating of the already-torched surface and moist dews should make for widespread strong and localized severe throughout the area. Don't need much of a forcing mechanism with these surface conditions....

The problem I'm seeing is we likely  have pulsing cells where cells pop but are unable to maintain potent structure with too much Cape relative to shear...

yeah whatever forms definitely will be of pulse nature.  I would really love if ALB or OK did an 18z balloon launch.  Some models have indicated some potential capping just above 700mb throughout the day and some models actually erode it.  I think this could be a key as well b/c if there is indeed no cap or it erodes here that will increase the likelihood of rapidly accelerating parcels into the mid-levels and even though shear is on the weak side you do have 30 knots of effective bulk shear thanks to strengthening flow from 700-500.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's where best chance for any strong to severe should be...a noticeable boundary has pushed on-shore across southern CT, southern RI, and into SE MA so once the boundary from the north pushes into this boundary this will boost low-level convergence quite a bit and allow for storms to briefly overcome marginal shear and this is where some cores could take off and we get some hail (probably under 1'' I would think given high freezing levels) and damaging wind gusts in the form of wet microbursts as cores collapse 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

dews actually boosted up a bit and sfc winds now look more SW across some stations.  Theta-e ridge winning out over any mixing?  

We're probably about maxed out on mixing at this point. So dews might pool a little ahead of the front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

We're probably about maxed out on mixing at this point. So dews might pool a little ahead of the front.

that would throw a major wrench into my forecast.  Although I'm not totally sure how it would help with getting more coverage of convection but I guess it would mean higher end cape verifies (though not the 5000 GFS had) which means greater potential for severe cores (albeit brief lasting).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that would throw a major wrench into my forecast.  Although I'm not totally sure how it would help with getting more coverage of convection but I guess it would mean higher end cape verifies (though not the 5000 GFS had) which means greater potential for severe cores (albeit brief lasting).  

MLCAPE approaching 1500 down your way, and shear around 30 knots. That should be enough for some isolated severe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

MLCAPE approaching 1500 down your way, and shear around 30 knots. That should be enough for some isolated severe.

effective bulk shear is 25-30 knots which isn't horrible given the capes we have.  Just about too eroded MLcin down this way as well.  I'm just pissed I'll be sitting in a classroom with NO WINDOWS from 4:00 on.  I'm expecting a severe storm with golf ball hail to blow right over Waterbury and I won't see it :angry:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

So what happens up here in central New Hampshire? Does the showers to the northwest of us in Vermont that line just saw dissipate and new convection forms in Southern New England?

You may catch a shower with the cold front itself, but the real unstable air is basically along and south of a line from DAW to BGM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that's where best chance for any strong to severe should be...a noticeable boundary has pushed on-shore across southern CT, southern RI, and into SE MA so once the boundary from the north pushes into this boundary this will boost low-level convergence quite a bit and allow for storms to briefly overcome marginal shear and this is where some cores could take off and we get some hail (probably under 1'' I would think given high freezing levels) and damaging wind gusts in the form of wet microbursts as cores collapse 

Boundary I would assume is the seabreeze; that is daily trigger for storms down here in S FL. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Showing signs we will have storms now finally. Cap broke due to some localized terrain/approaching cold front and it has allowed storms to brew in localized areaa. 

Tough to tell whether or not this will become something more interesting or localized yet. VT storms are being watched closely here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...