Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Convective Thread


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Is there a chance of storms today when the C.F. moves through?

BOX not thrilled about it

The other concern continues to be convection potential. As noted
earlier, strong shear and CAPEs near 1500 J/Kg will be fighting
limited moisture for convective initiation. The most likely
location if anything does develop would be across RI/SE Mass.
The SPC HRRR does show a couple of brief isolated storms
developing in this area between 19Z and 20Z. We will continue
our POPs from the earlier forecast, generally slight chance or
low-end chance over RI and SE Mass.

-- End Changed Discussion --
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Ryan was teasing it on air. 

Yeah some potential Wednesday. Nice cold pool coming in aloft with 500 hpa temps around -19C so we get some steep lapse rates. only marginal low level moisture so CAPE won't be too high but worth watching - especially given the strong deep layer shear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, radarman said:

getting noticeably brighter here in the valley after heavy drizzle to start the morning.  SPC mentioned some mid level drying and we could sure use it... not just to build CAPE but to build morale.  At any rate, the date alone makes me bullish today. 

Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hoth said:

Yeah the closest we ever came to a High Risk was on this date. Definitely a sweet spot for severe historically. 

The 6/6/10 tornado watch probs were something you'd see in a high risk too.  And we know how that went :yikes:

This couple day stretch on the calendar does seem to produce though, and then a lag before it seems to ramp up again.  Hard to say if it's just low sample size or if there is a climatological reason... My guess is probably the former, but who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...