UMB WX Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 I pray we have time to get notice out to the public.. Slow severe times I guess lends itself to questioning the pro's. No different in winter when we disagree with winter watches and such. The severe core is pretty tight and knowledgeable here so I get the questioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, UMB WX said: I pray we have time to get notice out to the public.. Slow severe times I guess lends itself to questioning the pro's. No different in winter when we disagree with winter watches and such. The severe core is pretty tight and knowledgeable here so I get the questioning. Yes, with risk outlook especially in the 2 day range, I would rather go too high and pull back later vs ratcheting up through the day of the event where people can get caught off guard. I do fully expect the new day 2 to at the very least be a slight risk but it could even be an enhanced risk, the potential is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Strong tornadoes mentioned in the new D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: Strong tornadoes mentioned in the new D2. From a low end marginal to mentioning strong tornadoes in one outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 May 3, 1999 in OK was the classic day of ratcheting up of svr probs during the day in successive outlooks and I think there may be some situations where it is just not possible to determine mesoscale influences on general parameters too far in advance. Our knowledge and technology has increased since that classic day so I do agree with Stebo that the sooner we can get notice out to the public within a reasonable time the better. I was also thinking of that high risk/PDS tor watch situation that busted in the southeast earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Thursday also looking interesting now, especially if the cap breaks. 12z Hi-Res NAM tries to get something going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Powerball said: 12z Hi-Res NAM tries to get something going... 18Z Hi-Res NAM has it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 540 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017 WIC005-162300- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170516T2300Z/ BARRON WI- 540 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL BARRON COUNTY... AT 539 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SUMNER, OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICE LAKE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 552 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017 WIC107-162315- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170516T2315Z/ RUSK WI- 552 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR WESTERN RUSK COUNTY... AT 551 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEYERHAEUSER, OR 15 MILES WEST OF LADYSMITH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 535 PM TORNADO 4 NW CHETEK 45.36N 91.71W 05/16/2017 BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 This thread is really threat, that supercell storm in Wisconsin has been dropping tornadoes consistently for the past 2 1/2 hours. Some very significant damage has occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, JoJo said: This thread is really threat, that supercell storm in Wisconsin has been dropping tornadoes consistently for the past 2 1/2 hours. Some very significant damage has occurred severe weather crowd in the central/western forum storm discussed there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Tomorrow (5/17) I think eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin will get some relatively fast-moving storms capable of severe weather. The 12 km NAM soundings have 2500 J/kg of CAPE, 150 m2/s2 of SRH and 63 kt of deep layer shear. All modes of severe weather are possible and an enhanced outlook could be issued tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 21z SREF is very aggressive tomorrow over IA and MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 00z NAM nest TOR outbreak over IA Ito NW IL area later may need Moderate risk if it pans out with 100kt mid Level jet streak and screaming LLJ with arcs of storms spinning around the low 1st wave may start early over IA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 00z NAM nest TOR outbreak over IA Ito NW IL area later may need Moderate risk if it pans out with 100kt mid Level jet streak and screaming LLJ with arcs of storms spinning around the low 1st wave may start early over IA area I would say if they were to do a moderate risk, it would very likely be for wind. With parameters like the ones in place tomorrow, wind is probably going to be the biggest threat. However, with 0-1km SRH values in the 200-300m2s2 range. Tornado potential is certainly there, and would be maximized if a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode becomes preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: I would say if they were to do a moderate risk, it would very likely be for wind. With parameters like the ones in place tomorrow, wind is probably going to be the biggest threat. However, with 0-1km SRH values in the 200-300m2s2 range. Tornado potential is certainly there, and would be maximized if a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode becomes preferred. Discrete/semi-discrete is dominant on all of the current convective allowing guidance and it's not too hard to see why given the strength/orientation of the shear vectors to the pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 00z NAM near the IA/IL border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM near the IA/IL border Even the low res QPF/precip plots are suggesting a string of supercells moving right into that environment at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Hi Res NAM for Wed. Pretty worrying looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Even the low res QPF/precip plots are suggesting a string of supercells moving right into that environment at that time. Yep... convective mode can be tricky to pin down but I don't see a convincing argument against discrete convection or a semi discrete line of supercells. Besides what you mentioned about shear vectors relative to the boundary, we don't really have massive height falls plowing across much of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 This event sneaked up in a hurry. No matter what time storms develop during the afternoon, they will quickly acquire both mid-level and low-level rotation. Favorable deep-layer vectors indicate that supercell storm mode will be highly favored. Sufficient instability and moisture + rather prodigious deep-layer and low-level shear... Has all the makings of a significant severe episode across IA/MO/IL. Looks like we will see quite a dramatic uptick in severe probabilities, from no delineated area on the D3 to a marginal in the first day 2 to a slight on the 2nd D2, likely to at least an ENH if not a MDT on the D1 at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 The CAMS definitely have a concerning look to them for the DVN cwa later tomorrow. Dynamics and shear profiles will certainly be in place. Only question is just how unstable will it become in the instability axis. This has the potential to be a pretty significant event to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 What do you guys think of the eastern extent of the risk for severe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, homedis said: What do you guys think of the eastern extent of the risk for severe tomorrow? Depends on what you mean. As far as the eastward extent of the better threat, I'd say perhaps into north central IL. But some threat should exist farther eastward into Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, homedis said: What do you guys think of the eastern extent of the risk for severe tomorrow? I wouldn't be surprised if stuff makes it to Chicago tomorrow around midnight, at what capacity though remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Day 1 Enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Thursday over an large area from Indiana eastward needs to be watched too. NAM and NAM hi-res has good parameters in place from Indiana into Ohio and Pennsylvania on Thursday. Some limiting factors but some decent parameters in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, JoJo said: Thursday over an large area from Indiana eastward needs to be watched too. NAM and NAM hi-res has good parameters in place from Indiana into Ohio and Pennsylvania on Thursday. Some limiting factors but some decent parameters in place Large Day 2 marginal with small slight area. If the threat ends up becoming bigger, they'll probably expand the slight. Right now lots of moving parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCM Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 1 hour ago, homedis said: What do you guys think of the eastern extent of the risk for severe tomorrow? Snoozefest for the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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