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May 15-20th Severe Weather Event


Chicago Storm

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
632 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT  
  
* AT 632 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WAUBEEK, OR 9  
  MILES WEST OF ANAMOSA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
741 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  
  
741 PM CDT  
  
ARC OF STORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 730 PM IS JUST  
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OR IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, AS  
WELL AS ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL FORCING PER GOES-16 WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS CAPTURED THE WARM  
SECTOR WELL, SHOWING STRONG SPEED SHEAR AS WELL AS MODEST/STRONG   
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUE SUPERCELLS OR EMBEDDED   
SUPERCELLS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD   
STAY WELL-MIXED THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG NEAR-   
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION, WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND  
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS   
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LCLS/LFCS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HIGH FOR   
TORNADO POTENTIAL IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THUS FAR, AND WERE   
STILL HIGH ON THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THE   
KINEMATICS CAN OVERCOME FOR THAT, AND IF ANYTHING MAY INCREASE   
THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONG, THERMALLY-ASSISTED   
DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN AN ALREADY POTENT WIND FIELD. THE FIRST STORM   
CLUSTER/SUPERCELL PRODUCED BOTH SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIDESPREAD   
WIND DAMAGE INDICATIVE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS, AND GIVES AN   
INDICATION OF WHAT THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE IS CAPABLE OF.  
  
AHEAD OF THIS ARC, ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE, AND  
ANY OF THOSE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE MOST CONCERNING GIVEN  
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ON DVN. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORMS COULD   
ALSO BE SEEN A WAYS OUT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LINE. WHILE THESE TOO  
COULD POSE SEVERE POTENTIAL, POSSIBLY EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH   
AREA IF SOME WERE TO POP UP, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RIGHT   
NOW STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECTING THE  
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS TO TAKE THE MOST POTENT STORMS  
MAINLY NORTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA, WITH THE NORTHWEST AND   
NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO POSSIBLY GETTING CLIPPED.  
  
MTF  

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  waiting to see if this is a typo...

 


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
758 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0628 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W RYAN                42.35N 91.50W   
05/17/2017  M89 MPH          DELAWARE           IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE 

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0757 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
  
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR EASTERN IOWA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY...WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OZARKS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  THE THREAT FOR  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST  
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE BRIEF  
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
THIS EVENING.  
   
..MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WITH A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT  
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE  
SURFACE, A 993 MB LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA  
WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW EXTENDING  
NORTHWARD FROM ILLINOIS INTO WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.  
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH ONE LINE  
IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ANOTHER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN  
FAR EASTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF  
THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA AND NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS ESTIMATED IN THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE  
RAP SHOWS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED ACROSS  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT REGION OF  
THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 45  
TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT  
WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN PERSIST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER  
EMBEDDED CELLS. A COUPLE BRIEF QLCS TYPE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE.  
   
..ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
  
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF MODERATE  
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY THE RAP FROM THE ARKLATEX  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE  
ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY  
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM ADVECTION IS  
MAINTAINED DUE TO VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS MAY ALLOW  
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING  
THE LATE EVENING OR IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NAM FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS IN THE OZARKS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50  
TO 60 KT RANGE AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THIS  
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT.  

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
805 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT  
      
* AT 805 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CABLE, OR  
  13 MILES WEST OF CAMBRIDGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Had a couple 50+ mph gusts here as the line moved in... nothing severe.  There have been a few 70 mph reports nearby, but I didn't see that.

I recorded video of it via my tablet (just like I did on March 6) and looking at the footage, the winds weren't too bad.  Can't say the same for SE Cedar Rapids, though.  Waterloo/Cedar Falls/Des Moines got clobbered by this line.

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btw, back up here in the twin cities, where the overall severe threat has been limited today, we have had at least a few reports of flash flooding. One of which was momentary flooding of the MoA stop of the Metro Transit Blue Line. it only lasted ~ 20 mins, but they did have to not run trains south of the MoA for that time due to the momentary high waters. Others include somewhere between Blaine and Andover in Anoka County and near Hennepin and 10th in Downtown Minny.

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0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARKERSBURG             42.58N 92.78W  
05/17/2017                   BUTLER             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER     
  
            VERY HIGH WINDS ESTIMATED AT OVER 70 MPH.   
            POWER OUT IN PARKERSBURG. SEMI OVERTURNED ON   
            HIGHWAY 57 RESULTING IN ONE FATALITY.   
            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN ON ROADS. 3 FOOT   
            DIAMETER TREE DOWN IN PARKERSBURG.   

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
812 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
  
ILC073-131-161-180145-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170518T0145Z/  
ROCK ISLAND IL-MERCER IL-HENRY IL-  
812 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...NORTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY  
COUNTIES...  
          
AT 812 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ORION, OR 10  
MILES WEST OF CAMBRIDGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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