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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
823 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
TXC049-190200-  
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170519T0200Z/  
BROWN TX-  
823 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY...  
      
AT 821 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MAY, MOVING   
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO   
ON THE GROUND OVER MAY AT 821 PM.   
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Well, there was this on the SPC storm reports:

2331        1 W SALINA AIRPORT     SALINE     KS    3880    9767    RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO REPORTED TO BE HEADING EAST. (ICT)

I knew that there was a tornado... But this looks like a beast. Searched google for this image and nothing else came up so I assume it must've been taken by this guy (who is apparently a Kansas State Rep). One of the better looking tornadoes of the day, in addition to the Waynoka, OK tornado.

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
837 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT  
  
* AT 836 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MAY, OR 14  
  MILES NORTH OF EARLY, MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   

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1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

I think it's fake. Visibility was wayyyyyyy lower all throughout that warmfront area

Yeah great point, the amount of moisture slamming into the WF, with all those cells being HP. No way that is real.

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6 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

This tornado in Texas has been f*cking up about 1 square mile of land for the better half of 20 minutes.
Scan 1, small NE Jog
Scan 2, Direct West jog
Scan 3, NW Jog

 

Easily the most impressive storm of the day. Texas FTW.

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7 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

This tornado in Texas has been f*cking up about 1 square mile of land for the better half of 20 minutes.
Scan 1, small NE Jog
Scan 2, Direct West jog
Scan 3, NW Jog

 

Not the first time I've seen a stray cell stall in that area and produce a persistent drunk tornado. Must have some pretty decent hail accumulation too.

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14 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

00z NAM says lets have a replay

21z SREF calibrated severe probabilities are about the same as they were today. The most apparent red flag is the potential for mid/late morning convective contamination, however. 

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For some reason...I think because of the likely location of the highest tornado threat...tomorrow reminds me of some of those late May 2013 days. Have a weird feeling that something big could happen, despite better judgment of things likely being very messy... NAM and 3NAM both support an impressive parameter space tomorrow across Central OK and other areas possibly as well. Regardless, lots of uncertainty regarding tomorrow at this point given possibility for morning convection + potentially early CI. Seems, IF instability and moisture is not cleared out by morning junk, that an enhanced tornado risk could prevail with any supercells in the afternoon before upscale growth likely occurs, have some pause to the tornado threat though as the low-level wind profile honestly does not feature that much turning tomorrow in the lowest 3km AGL, owing to the same 700mb meridional flow we saw today on the VNX and ICT VWPs. But thinking LLVL shear should also be a bit better earlier on (I.e, not as meager), overly a localized area. Of particular concern to me is the likelihood that we get one or more OFBs across central and northeastern OK tomorrow afternoon (which would obviously increase the tornado threat locally). Any higher-end severe threat (very large hail, possibly strong tornadoes) will rely on strong instability developing... In addition... any strong tornado threat should be relegated to supercells interacting with boundaries as it sits right now IMO, perhaps that could change as mesoscale details evolve late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

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