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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Could easily be to weak to hold back the colder RFDs. But all models have winds ramping up from here to 00z.

It's probably a combination of cold pool/shear interactions and insufficient low-level tilting of vorticity.  RAP shows a fairly dramatic increase in low-level shear over the next several hours, however.

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Seems like there has been a bit of a trend for things to get clustery/HP/messy but then for things to emerge as discrete/semi-discrete, if this continues into the evening hours along with the current discrete cells we have, things will likely get fairly busy.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DEWEY...SOUTHEASTERN WOODWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN MAJOR
COUNTIES...
    
At 416 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles northeast of
Cestos, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado near Seiling at 411 PM 
         CDT. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Seiling, Mutual, Chester and Cestos. 

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The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Woods County in northwestern Oklahoma...
  East central Woodward County in northwestern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Major County in northwestern Oklahoma...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 434 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 5 miles north of Chester, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! 

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado. 

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris 
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile 
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete 
           destruction is possible. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Waynoka and Bouse Junction. 

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