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May 15-20 Severe Threat


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Done for today. Got the tornado south of McLean (pictured) and then the rain wrapped wedge Wheeler, TX.  We never got too good of a view but could see it in the rain. Fist time I was close enough to hear the roar, and it was impressive. Also saw (and reported) structural damage just east of Elk City where an outbuilding was destroyed and trees and power lines were down.

IMG_8023.JPG

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Quite active up here near Omaha today also. Estimated winds over 100mph near the NWS in Valley, confirmed 80+mph gusts there and 70+ by the time it reaches me. Got a great photo at least before I had to haul it back home when I saw those reports and updated warnings coming in. 

Screenshot_20170516-183204.png

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00z NAM continues the trend in depicting a high-end/significant severe weather event unfolding on Thursday across KS/OK and perhaps into TX. Areas very similar to today would be under the gun, and areas further east as well, especially given that CINH doesn't dramatically increase after dark. Parameter space would easily support very large hail, destructive damaging winds, and tornadoes (with strong/violent long-tracking tornadoes being possible with any mature, discrete supercells). 00z GFS will probably say the same, as it has the last few runs, Euro also agrees with this idea. Euro is a bit further west with the DL than either the NAM or GFS have been though.

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13 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

00z NAM continues the trend in depicting a high-end/significant severe weather event unfolding on Thursday across KS/OK and perhaps into TX. Areas very similar to today would be under the gun, and areas further east as well, especially given that CINH doesn't dramatically increase after dark. Parameter space would easily support very large hail, destructive damaging winds, and tornadoes (with strong/violent long-tracking tornadoes being possible with any mature, discrete supercells). 00z GFS will probably say the same, as it has the last few runs, Euro also agrees with this idea. Euro is a bit further west with the DL than either the NAM or GFS have been though.

How does this match up with the 3 day outlook hatched area? 

 

Is C. Ok/metro/Edmond under the gun possibly Thursday?

 

My wife is chaperoning a camping trip for kids near Davis, OK and have concerns with Thursday

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9 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

How does this match up with the 3 day outlook hatched area? 

 

Is C. Ok/metro/Edmond under the gun possibly Thursday?

 

My wife is chaperoning a camping trip for kids near Davis, OK and have concerns with Thursday

Hatched area will likely be expanded north, and an increase in severe probabilities will likely be needed further north as well. Still some uncertainty in where exactly the dryline and warm front will setup, which will dramatically effect severe modes/risks in a variety of areas. But current expectation would be for the dryline to setup up somewhere near the TX PH/OK border and for storms to move northeastward across the warm sector Thursday evening and night. I would recommend paying close attention to upcoming SPC forecasts (1am Day 2, and 1230PM Day 2) as well as your local NWS forecast office forecasts (weather.gov/oun). You're lucky enough to have one of the best forecast offices in the country for these type of events, they frequently put out highly beneficial and informative graphics - especially on the day-of.

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18 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Hatched area will likely be expanded north, and an increase in severe probabilities will likely be needed further north as well. Still some uncertainty in where exactly the dryline and warm front will setup, which will dramatically effect severe modes/risks in a variety of areas. But current expectation would be for the dryline to setup up somewhere near the TX PH/OK border and for storms to move northeastward across the warm sector Thursday evening and night. I would recommend paying close attention to upcoming SPC forecasts (1am Day 2, and 1230PM Day 2) as well as your local NWS forecast office forecasts (weather.gov/oun). You're lucky enough to have one of the best forecast offices in the country for these type of events, they frequently put out highly beneficial and informative graphics - especially on the day-of.

Thanks. Oh trust me I scour everything I can during the "season" and follow a lot of you guys. I check the runs and data but I'm no where near how you guys read the data. I was just curious if this is more like today in terms of where it starts i.e. Dryline as typical but where it may end up at if it retreats west or shoves closer to I35 corridor. 

I appreciate your response and will keep my eyes peeled

 

 

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I also was on the McLean cell today initially. That cell dropped a beautiful elephant trunk tornado. It was the only tornado I saw today though. I dropped to the next cell down immediately afterwards (ended up dropping the Elk City tornado). Every time that thing ramped up, something would prevent me from getting close enough to see anything. Overall, it feels like something caused these storms to underperform, but I can't put my finger on it at the moment. Maybe the moiture mixed out a little more than expected and raised the LCLs? Storms were also somewhat grungy.

 

 

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i was all over the bucklin cell. chased it from near mineola up through great bend.

 hard to tell where the tornado was...i never saw it clearly through all the rain, despite having great positioning

there definitely was one, though...when i rolled through pawnee rock i saw obvious ef-0 and 1 damage.  honestly the hairiest part was the flooding on 183 in kinsley. i didnt turn around and thankfully didnt drown :D

some pics and a vid:

18489536_10101773273967018_3485481598783

18556788_10101773274231488_4592160384285

18558916_10101773274296358_5275082411216

 

 

 

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Ended up witnissing three tornadoes today. One southwest of McLean which was the photogenic barrel, second which was rain-wrapped wedge/big cone near Wheeler, and the start of the Elk City TOR awhile pinching softballs east of Sayre. Wheeler was crazy wrapped in rain, but the motion was nuts. Saw some interesting shapes before power flashes confirmed it was a big tornado. Damage path one 83 looked to be about a 1000 feet wide with a doen power poles snapped, Barbed wire all over the highway, and some loose (uninjured) lifestock. Wide but fairy weak tornado at that point. Definitely an interesting day, but as Ryan said, storms were definitely on the HP side. Never seemed to get their acts together until the meso(s) spun up into crazy rapid rotation. Same can be said for both the wheeer and elk city storms IMO. I know several chasers lost glass thanks to the traditional southern plains offering of giant hail:

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I'm taking the day off today; Iowa is just too far away for me. Already thinking about Thursday though. Not sure if I should target north or south yet (slightly leaning north at the moment), but I still have ~24 hours to decide that. In the meantime, I'm going to relax some, check out Palo Duro Canyon, and track this afternoon's storms remotely.

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27 tornado reports yesterday. definitely thought we'd see a few more but all in all a solid plains severe day in mid may. I think Thursday has the potential for a bigger outbreak. we could even see more than 27 today in Iowa with the wind fields in place there. this week may be the first real several day plains event this season where the potential actually looks to be realized. 

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14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Popping in from out of the region, but I have a couple of days to kill in the mountain west so I'm going to try for Kansas on Thursday.  Looking good, but I'm not much of a severe weenie.

Hate to break it to you but you may have to go a bit further west for mountains.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Popping in from out of the region, but I have a couple of days to kill in the mountain west so I'm going to try for Kansas on Thursday.  Looking good, but I'm not much of a severe weenie.

You wouldn't happen to be traveling from VA to Kansas to do "research" on hearty strains of wheat, would you comrade?

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Tornado Watch up

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231.html

ww0231_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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Some discrepancies tomorrow with regards to moisture return and dryline placement. Looks as though global models & NAM bring the dryline to TX/OK border, into TX on 00z euro. Meanwhile shorter-range guidance (NCAR, TTU, hrrrx) suggests dryline placement farther east with moisture not returning as quickly into W/NW OK. 

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