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18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://t.co/9aGT4DXpXD

This is another way to look at things.

Also - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W
2017   11    -0.41     -0.65      -0.84
2017   12    -0.31     -0.54      -0.75
2018    1     0.01     -0.17      -0.16
2018    2     0.29      0.09      -0.11
2018    3     0.45      0.43       0.51

Before 2008, there was a never a time when all 3 were positive in March that led to La Nina the next Winter. Many Neutral's and El Nino's. Then in the last 9 years it happened 4 times, last Winter being one

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Latest weeklies, some more warming except in Nino 4.                
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1

Monthly/ONI data should be out later this week or next week.

Worth noting, there is another big MJO wave now, will do the 7-8-1-2 dance.

^^ I think the positive values turning into La Ninas has to do with the PDO flip in the previous decade, by some measures (NOAA PDO) it has been negative for a while after the brief big spike with the 2014-15/2015-16 El Nino.

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Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt
 YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 
2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28
2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21
2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51
2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60
2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01
2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.04
2018   1   25.58   26.45   -0.88
2018   2   25.98   26.66   -0.68
2018   3   26.44   27.21   -0.77

March came in at 25.15C in Nino 1.2, coldest since 2005. Nino 3.4 was coldest in March since 2011. 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.data

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DZ-y4n8VMAUJevh.jpg

March 29 2006 is on the right. If an El Nino is to develop in July as the Canadian says, it makes some sense that the subsurface is "ahead" of 2006 in trending to El Nino.

fYjS4BX.png

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Time to play Taps soon?

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1

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I'm actually more interested in what the PDO does for the time being, in the Summer that's the stronger precip signal v. ENSO here, and Summer is the wet season, with 50-70% of annual rain falling in Jun-Sep here most years. Ideal monsoon tends to occur with low-solar activity, high PDO values, and little precipitation in the Nov-Apr prior to Summer. Dry Summers get a little nuts, we had sub-0F dewpoints a few days last year with air temperatures during the day near 100, so some areas were falling into the 40s at night. Even here, that's crazy.

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No more La Nina in 3.4 as of this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0

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Well this was a successful thread until about half way through I think it got hacked or something. I've been following, and it's apparently received 4,500 views in the last few weeks but no one is posting in the weather section, There are like 3 posts. Thanks for the discussion though raindancewx.

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SOI has been exceptionally volatile this month, readings from +31 to -17, recently consistently negative though. Suspect there will be some kind of US pattern flip in mid-May. Strongest correlations are in the SW, WA, and northern New England for May - will be regions to watch for a flip.

TOYi7xB.png

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