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Heavy Rainstorm Friday night into Sunday morning


NJwx85

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The GFS, Euro and GGEM all show a late season coastal storm affecting the region from Friday night into Sunday morning. Although the axis of heaviest rain remains uncertain, most areas should see a significant, perhaps anomalous rainfall this weekend.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS cut back just a hair, mainly because the CCB develops just a hair later. Basic evelution the same.

Just noise at this point, the finer details should start coming into focus tomorrow. Looks like a widespread 1-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, certainly some flooding problems will arise especially with the recent heavy rains that some areas received.

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40 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the 06z GFS backed off on the heavy precipitation amounts as well, have to see if these are burp runs or if they bring back the heavier amounts in future runs. Regardless, it would still be a 1.5"-2.0" rainfall for the area.

The Euro was still widespread 2-3" totals and the UKMET had high numbers as well. Looks like the GFS just developed a little late. It did that once yesterday and then bounced right back.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

DC was expecting to stay dry or mostly dry today and they are currently getting dumped on so I'm not sure how that might affect things moving forward.

Yeah, but that's just the decaying MCV from yesterday's convection over IL, no?  I mean we might get clipped with some light showers from some of the stratiform precip associated with the complex up in central PA, but it shouldn't change the broader forecast.  Heck, WPC was onto the MCV it just verified 60 miles north of forecast, which is well within typical error for that sort of system.

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14 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yeah, but that's just the decaying MCV from yesterday's convection over IL, no?  I mean we might get clipped with some light showers from some of the stratiform precip associated with the complex up in central PA, but it shouldn't change the broader forecast.  Heck, WPC was onto the MCV it just verified 60 miles north of forecast, which is well within typical error for that sort of system.

When you have such a large error at such short range that can sometimes impact the entire run.

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53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

When you have such a large error at such short range that can sometimes impact the entire run.

That's not a large error for a mesoscale convective system, and I doubt it's going to affect the run relating to what's mainly a baroclinicly forced rain event.

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