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May 10th-11th Severe Threats

monsoonman1

By monsoonman1,
in Central/Western States

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monsoonman1

monsoonman1

Posted
Posted

Figured I'd make a thread for tomorrow, since it's starting to look pretty good, and might as well add Thursday while I'm at it. As long as crapvection doesn't mess it up too badly, I'd imagine there will be some tornadoes in west OK and parts of TX tomorrow (maybe a strong one). Any OFBs will be something to watch carefully tomorrow afternoon.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

5/10--This is the first enhanced outlook we have had Tornado Alley for a few days

Quote

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...

 

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JasonOH

JasonOH

Posted
Posted

One thing to note is the excellent moisture we have in place.  Norman has a pretty much perfect morning of event sounding with deep moisture, and veering low level winds, showing WAA, and more moisture.  A lot of today's threat revolves around the LLJ and when it kicks up. If we get it a bit earlier, the tornado threat will last longer. One thing to note is that with the very moist boundary layer, an overnight inversion will take much longer to form. In this reguard, the HRRR makes sense with the boundary layer present in forecast soundings near the end of the run in COK. Probably mainly a hail threat there, but something to keep an eye on.

 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

One thing to note is the excellent moisture we have in place.  Norman has a pretty much perfect morning of event sounding with deep moisture, and veering low level winds, showing WAA, and more moisture.  A lot of today's threat revolves around the LLJ and when it kicks up. If we get it a bit earlier, the tornado threat will last longer. One thing to note is that with the very moist boundary layer, an overnight inversion will take much longer to form. In this reguard, the HRRR makes sense with the boundary layer present in forecast soundings near the end of the run in COK. Probably mainly a hail threat there, but something to keep an eye on.

 

I love how I read this and then the 12Z HRRR shows a nasty sup riding up 44 to OUN around 3Z... Regardless I'm pretty stoked for chasing prospects today. Probably heading out to near Hollis, OK by 3 PM and adjusting from there. Will have to watch for any OFBs from this morning's convection in the NE Panhandle and NW Oklahoma. 

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
Posted

Moisture is pretty amazing for today, whereas the ongoing convection and propensity for negative SRH in the 2-4 km AGL layer isn't. I'll be out, regardless. But I can envision a similar scenario to 2016-05-08 in the same region, where left splits run rampant until 6-7pm; like that day, we'd be much better off of CI waited until early evening, which doesn't look too likely.

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JasonOH

JasonOH

Posted
Posted

I'm leaving a bit later, around 2 after a review for a final.  Hoping to get to west of Lawton by 3:30 and figure it out from there.  I want to keep an eye on the FDR VAD to see how it compares to the HRRR soundings to see the trends. If it looks worse than forecast I may not even go. One thing to note, the HRRR has not initialized the boundary location in SW OK well at all. HRRR has it in the TXPH while obs have it in SWOK.  Also, it isn't picking up on any of the convection in SWOK right now. 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

Moisture is pretty amazing for today, whereas the ongoing convection and propensity for negative SRH in the 2-4 km AGL layer isn't. I'll be out, regardless. But I can envision a similar scenario to 2016-05-08 in the same region, where left splits run rampant until 6-7pm; like that day, we'd be much better off of CI waited until early evening, which doesn't look too likely.

Ongoing convection isn't a big deal breaker for the southern part of the target. Based on satellite imagery and near-term trends, the area underneath the outflow boundary, particularly northwest Texas, should have no problem destabilizing rapidly.

This may lead to earlier-than-ideal initiation though, as mentioned, but at least discrete/semi-discrete storm modes should prevail into early evening given shear profiles across northwest Texas to far southwestern Oklahoma. Messy and clustered storm modes seem most probable from the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma. A weakness in the mid-levels is glaring here, but not nearly as bad farther south. 

Across the region, 850-700mb wind fields are disrupting hodograph size and curvature, but improvement is likely by 23-02z, namely where the parameter space looks quite favorable in the general vicinity of Wichita Falls. Watch any southern cells that can remain at least somewhat isolated after 00z. I'd imagine one or two intense supercells verify in the area, but the tornado threat, while elevated, is far from slam-dunk. 

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Jim Martin

Jim Martin

Posted
Posted

Interesting tidbit from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities...

Strongly believe that the regional and global models
will miss this and that CAMs are the most reliable at this time.
12z NAMNEST and 00z NCAR runs suggests rotating long lived storms.
Supercells will be possible across the area. Cold pools may begin
to congeal cells into a line later this afternoon. Regardless, a
tornado, wind and hail threat still remains for the area.
 

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cheese007

cheese007

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Tomorrow (5/11) - some of the convection-allowing models predict a discrete cell in Dallas County TX.

UTDallas is having graduation ceremonies tomorrow. Hope campus powers that be are paying attention!

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted 
 Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

   Areas affected...portions of the TX Low Rolling Plains...southeast
   TX Panhandle...southwest and west-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 101914Z - 102015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected initially near a triple
   point near the Caprock 50 miles northeast of Lubbock.  Additional
   storms are forecast to develop and intensify to severe levels. 
   Large to very large hail will be possible with the discrete
   supercells.  A tornado risk will probably maximize during the 23-02Z
   period.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery indicates initial storm
   development is occurring near a triple point 50 miles northeast of
   Lubbock on the Caprock.  Subjective surface analysis delineates an
   outflow boundary from the triple point northeast through southwest
   OK.  A bulging dryline extends south into the Pecos River Valley.  A
   reservoir of 64-69 degrees F dewpoints resides east of the dryline
   and south of the outflow boundary.  Heating into the middle 80s
   southwest to the upper 70s farther northeast into parts of central
   OK will result in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and a very unstable boundary
   layer.  Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow associated with
   an approaching upper jet streak will strongly favor supercells (some
   supercell splitting expected) atop generally modest low-level shear.
    

   Very large CAPE in the hail growth layer (-10 to -30 degrees C) and
   ample lofting of hydrometeors imply very large to giant hail (2-3.5
   inches in diameter) is possible with the most intense supercells. 
   The risk for a tornado will probably be most favorable in a corridor
   near the modifying outflow boundary.  A strengthening in low-level
   flow is expected towards the early evening and a corresponding
   enlargement in the hodograph is forecast (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2)
   from a minimum in hodograph size around 21Z.  

   Short-term models suggest isolated to widely scattered supercells
   evolving and moving northeast into southwest OK from northwest TX. 
   Additional more isolated activity is possible farther northeast
   along the outflow boundary in OK per models.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted

That supercell northeast of Lubbock, in Motley County, is really blowing up. Tops already up to 52KFT. Developing a nice inflow-notch and has fairly substantial low-level inflow already on SRV, not sure though as inflow bin velocities on BV are much less impressive.

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samadamsuk

samadamsuk

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Are there any good livestreams available from someone on the Lubbock storm?  I wouldn't mind running it in the background at the office.

Hey, Roger Hill, Jason Weingart both have Icons on GRl3 and are by that storm - probably up on severe studios but I haven't switched it on yet

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